We head into the second half of the meet besting the takeout to date, while ( as usual ) doing well in our ( ALWAYS the original ) 'Beatable Favorites' category.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Arrebato | 2nd -Jungfrau | 3rd -Atlanta's Acuna |
#5 ARREBATO has only beaten home nine in his last six pack, but is confidently hiked up in class off the recent disappointment, and his lone tally came at today's distance of ground. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Noda is 4 pf 9 with second off the claim male mid level sand stock right here ( 32-42 days ), and the winners in that study came back $3, $8, $6 & $12. #1 JUNGFRAU goes two turs to one for today's drop in class, and Silvera sticks around despite the recent disappointment. #7 ATLANTA'S ACUNA won his only start when last to load and can land a share.
| Race 2 | 1st -Ruvies in Time | 2nd -Sue Ellen Miskin | 3rd -Shinfull |
We'll blast off with the ol' 3-2-1 tri in today's 2nd. #3 RUVIES IN TIME showed little in the comebacker, but likely needed that race, and given this one's fondness for today's distance ( 27:7-2-5, compared to being 18:0-2-2 otherwise ), right off the bat, we'll include. According to Formulator, Jimmy Ferraro ( 8% day to day ) is a crisp 5 fer 9 with locally based optional dirt runners who missed the money less than 39 days back & are 17-1 or less. The mutuels for that sampling were a more than healthy $21, $13, $31, $28 & $7, and there's a sub category of 1-1 w/ Rivera astride. #2 SUE ELLEN MISKIN is an absolute win machine on a fast track ( 9 of 15, and 6 of 8 at today's distance of ground ), and is also backed by a nice trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, this outfit has a 7:4-0-2-1 ledger with those of this ilk who scored 32-50 days in the rear, and the winners paid $9, $5 & $3 x 2. #1 SHINFULL completed the exacta in her lone dirt deal off a sabbatical, and gets a trainer upgrade since last in action. NOTE: AS OF 11:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Taming the Tigress | 2nd -Shesalittle Edgy | 3rd -Dame Cinco |
#2 TAMING THE TIGRESS is one fo' three when first to load, 3-8 at today's distance of ground, and is the slimmest of selections in a heat that's hard to hug. #6 SHESALITTLE EDGY has the sort of "declining" mark at today's dist. that we like to see ( 12:6-2-1 ) as it shows us that she has a schnoz for the line, and we like this mare's ability to send of rate just a bit. #1 DAME CINCO has won three of her last five when made available for purchase, and digs Ozone Park. NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES. #'S 4 & 3 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.
| Race 4 | 1st -Red D G P | 2nd -Mudville Nine | 3rd -Grand Again |
#9 RED D G P is a bit of a fragile sort, but drops in class for the 2nd straight time, and shedrow is four for seven with second off the purchase male dirt entrants at this level who were 1-2-3 11 to 27 days ago ( $8, $19, $26 & $5 ). #3 MUDVILLE NINE has been kept in prison since the January 14th claim, and after a flat performance that day, comes back at the same level with a better jock in the stirrups. #7 GRAND AGAIN is a speedy type who may last for a share in his second try versus victors. NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Amedeus Music | 2nd -Prince of Truth | 3rd -Union Fleet |
#3 AMEDEUS MUSIC down the lane. #2 PRINCE OF TRUTH hasn't faced the starter since Christmas Eve Eve, but gelding was photogenic in his only "true" start off a break in the action, and the pre layoff pilot comes back, which is something we always dig. Work on 1/24 is a positive sign. #1 UNION FLEET blew up the tote board to the tune of $60 when getting up in time vs. what we would consider to be a similar grouping down in Maryland a dozen days in the past, and gelding owns a 4:1-3-0 record when beginning from the innermost two slots.
| Race 6 | 1st -Grandpa's Kid | 2nd -H P Moon | 3rd -Montebello |
#8 GRANDPA'S KID cashed a pair of decent checks when claim protected by Randi in his first three starts after being bought for 14 large, and although he has a "For Sale" stickah attached to his rump today, we dig that he's kept above the aforementioned price. J/T combo are 2 for 4 together with 1X dirt equines < 27-1 ( $24 & $5 ), and this chestnut chap's 6:2-0-2 boxscore at today's distance is far superior to his 10:0-1-1 mark in all other events. #5 H P MOON is a bit of a Fra-gee-lay type, but is 3:1-1-0 after a respite, and $100,000 money loser is now up for grabs for the 1st time. #1 MONTEBELLO went coast to coast like butter and toast the one time he was in a 2nd off the shelf engagement over a glib track, and is as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 7 | 1st -Alley's Song | 2nd -Run for Your Honey | 3rd -Progeny |
#7 ALLEY'S SONG displayed a bit of a "Z" pattern when making her first start off the claim by J. Ferraro ( an hombre who's done quite well with purchases over the last few years ), and as is often the case with these straight 3YO claiming races this time of year, lass lands in a soft spot. The just mentioned bossman is an incredible 7 for 9 with 2nd off the purchase female dirt runnahs who missed the baccala 17 to 39 days in the past @ 15-1 or below. Those who found the line first in that sorta deal paid a sublime $31, $30, $14 x 2. $11, $7 & $6, and there's a sub cat of 2-2 w/optional claimers. #3 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as she's gone 36-50-62 on a track labeled FST, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #4 PROGENY has hit the board in her last quartet, and who are we to rock that boat. NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Clever Forever | 2nd -Noble Huntsman | 3rd -Thank You Jon |
We got a lousy read on a nitecap with no first draft tosses, so it may be a good time to go walk the marmot. However, for all your rolling activity... #5 CLEVER FOREVER has been a part of the superfecta in each and every dirt foray, and that includes solid efforts at this trip, over this strip, and beneath today's helmsman. Meeeeeeeeekest of choices. #6 NOBLE HUNTSMAN has outrun his odds in two of his last three, lost by a bit over three lengths the only time he cut back from two turns to one, and....and....boy are we reaching here. #8 THANK YOU JON has been purchased in both starts when eligible for such, and given his fleet footedness, we'll chunk in. NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct 53-237 ( $407.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-12 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win % 82-237 ( 34.4% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
