3/1 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just a pair of chalky winners yesterday.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Snappin Buttons  Race 3 - Upside Potential  Race 7 - #1A Beachwalker ( only if his entrymate declares )

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#3 TROUBLED LUCK has lost ground in the lane over her last quintet, but takes the biggest drop in the biz this afternoon, and we like that Gomez sticks around, as he's popped with some prices for this barn in the past. Perhaps this gal can get a bit more brave on the front end with just one proven speedster signed on. We'll bite in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #1 LA DECENTE showed zilch first time out, but is another taking the plunge, and is eligible to improve. #4 MAMBAGIGI has Lasix added after beginning her career with a sharp placing at 20-1 and must be left in the mix.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SNAPPIN BUTTONS fills the bill, as Atras is 0-10 with all pertinent categories. 

#5 POPPY'S PRIDE hasn't seen these depths in more than a year, and popular item at the claim box has done quite well at today's distance of ground. Mild choice. #1A STRIKING SPEED has hit the board in four straight, and after being kept in jail since the 1/6 claim, is dropped in class for the first start with the new owner/trainer, as a quick profit is sought. From a DRF Formulator point of view, barn is 7:3-0-2 with dirt stock that were snagged 51-57 days ago at 8-1 or less ( $13, $5 & $17 ). #4 HONORARY DEGREE has a sweet "declining" mark of 20:6-3-0 at the dx., and is a crisp 4:2-1-0 in second off the shelf engagements. Sensible addition.   NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#5 LE BAR has proven to be a fragile sort, having been laid up after each start to date, and $350,000 auction purchase can now be all yours for about 1/9th of that today. Is that enough to get him over the hump? We don't know. But one of the two fast track tries was a goodie ( way back when ), and there aren't any worldbeaters signed on. Meh. #7 VENGE posted an adjusted 75.1 the only time he was entered with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie, and that daylight clear placing was also the only time he broke from the outside. Watch out, suckahs !  #2 BADGE OF WAR hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but gets the wonder drug for today's primary start on the main, and would be no surprise.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 UPSIDE POTENTIAL doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take a $90,000 auction purchase ( plus expenses ) available for half that today ?  Need more ?  Chad Brown is 0-10 with maiden claiming "dirsters" spotted for less than 75K ( which is almost = to a maiden special weight ).

Both the #1 KANT BEAT THE ROCK ( 2 for 8 at the trip, compared to being 1-15 otherwise ) and the #1A UNCLE GEORGE ( backed by an 8 fer 14 trainer stat with locally based male allowance dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta < 34 days back @ 7-1 or less -- $4.20+ ROI ) comprise decent factions of the Jacobsen entry. Excluding breaking through the gate, being vanned off, and attempting the poly, #5 NATURAL HARBOR has amassed a 6:2-3-1 boxscore, and deserves a chance to make amends after the most recent. #4 RETURN THE RING has won two of his last three over a glib surface, and lightly raced 6 year old "horse" ( You RUN when the vet comes ringing, buddy ! ) has done his finest work right here, 

This troika should suffice for all our rolling action.  #4 RUN DEVIL was a gamely runner up when facing what we would consider to be a similar allotment at this trip on the 9th of February. Best work has some at the trip & strip, and they'll likely have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #6 DREAMAWAYSEVEN put forth an honest showing vs. somewhat tougher 47 days in the rear and appears to be the mainger danger to the above. #1 GOOD PENNY is ( theoretically ) wheeled right back in six days after an even 4th versus 16K foes, but is a win machine ( 7 for 26 on the main ), and that includes being two of four in second off the shelf dirt jammies.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#5 SYSTEMIC CHANGE was sent to the sidelines after besting but one on December 10th, but gelding returns sans eye cups, and finds himself at his lowest level yet. 5YO has done okay in both starts after a hiatus, and is the meeeeeeeekest of choices in a deal that's hard to hug. #1A BEYOND BEST is an extremely consistent critter ( 16:3-2-4-3 ), and is a logical 1-2-3 playah. #3 MACALLAN is another Steady Eddie, and gets some improvement in the stirrups. 

#5 LIFE CHANGER drops a dime after coming along decently to pick up 12% of the pot last out, and should appreciate today's added panel. Some mixed signals with this one, as he's 7:3-2-1 at today's dist., but 9:0-4-3 at The Big A. Could do with some pace in front of him. #6 JEMOGRAPHY is quite the warhorse, and digs the local seagulls. #2 JUST CALL RAY has had to leave a forwarding address after five of his last six heats when up for grabs, and new bossman enlists the services of a jockey he's had some success with. ( 15:4-1-5-2 in tandem with dirt stock off breaks of 26-53 days, $9, $11, $68 & $26 ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1A BEACHWALKER ( but only if his entrymate declares )  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#6 I AM THE LAW has done well in this zip code, is one of two when returning off a sabbatical, and you can feel free to upgrade the most recent should today's track be labeled FST. Timid choice. #4 KUCHAR is one of two in 2nd off the break attempts ( outside of stakes company ), and gave a decent account of himself in a near identical spot two fortnights back. #1 LEADING CONTENDER has yet to miss the super when going two turns, but as he immolated baccala in the most recent, it would behoove you to examine pre race. 

Aqueduct 54-245 ( $417.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-12 ( 16.7% ) Favorite's Win % 86-245 ( 35.1% )( As of Friday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout