3/2 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#4 MITOLE'S GIRL popped and stopped in the local debut, but encountered a bit of trouble at the onset, and now loses the eye cups for today's secondary engagement. Slight edge in an opener devoid of much early speed. #7 LUNA PATINA begins her working life this afternoon, and $35,000 bred animal went for more than three times that amount at Keeneland just a few months in the rear. Gal is a half to a stakes winner who scored at first asking, and of the five upstairs members of the family tree, one scored at first asking, two were photogenic 2nd time out, and another picked up the diploma in his 3rd try. Of course, we dig the draw. #3 BETTER BE SMART has a decently tucked away 13th best of 108 breeze for today's lid lifter ( and we actually don't mind the ungodly 1:09 FIVE furlong move afterwards, as it could help the odds ), and lone sib to race is a current day runner who's gone 4:1-1-1-1 to date. 

#5 MASTERWORK got smacked around a bit in the most recent, but still managed to take part in the superfecta for the 3rd straight time, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. Meeeeeeekest of selections in a humdrum affair. #6 APOLLO RISING owns a 6:2-2-1 ledger when going two turns on the main, and makes all kinds of sense. #1 CHEEKY TICO takes an appreciable hike in class off the score a baker's dozen days back, but given his fondness for this oval, we'll chunk in. 

#1 DEBBIE DARLING returned off a two and a half month freshening to outrun her odds quite nicely when showing at 23-1, and did such against open company, Gal back in with Empire breds today, and while a regression is always possible off the career best figaro, we see her as the lone threar to our secondary selection, #2 ACCELERINA. That one has partaken in the superfecta in all three dirt deals when made available for purchase, and looks to be the mainger danger. #8 DRAMATIC EFFECT has done decently enough over the last pair, and is another back in w/ NYB company.   NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-2-1.

#3 JACKSON'S DIXIE played the fade in this spot 20 days back, but we like that she's still protected against the claim today -- especially with the decent work in the quartet just prior. Slight edge in a heat with no exclusions. #1 CHASING DAYLIGHT positively immolated baccala in the same race as the above, but won three of four just before that flopola -- one of them from the wood. #5 GEORGE'S VICE is two of two over a glib surface, and what the hell's wrong with that ?  NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 GUT FEELING has finished in the back half of the pack in his last duet, and now plummets to the 16K level. That last part is of some high relevance, as this bay boy has won the last THREE times he's had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie ( 8:0-0-0 in other affairs over that stretch ). Take note that one of those victories came the only time he went from two turns to one.  Will need to trip out. Both the #1 FUNKENSTEIN ( backed by a 4-10 trainer stat which has this barn at just that with dirt stock in the 51-53 day bracket -- $13, $17, $7 & $5 ), and #1A PIT BOSS ( 7:1-0-4-0 when breaking last on the main ) comprise decent factions of the Jacobsen entry. #9 FULL MOON FEVER has never seen these depths and digs the strip. 

#12 SKYLANDER displayed very little in the comebacker, but hey, that's never been his deal, and the only time he as in a true second off the bench dirt heat, it resulted in a drawing away $19 winner was the end result ( despite some traffic troubles ). Gelding draws the outside for the first time over the sandy stuff, and may be overlooked in this spot. #6 GOT THUNDER nearly blew up the tote board when placing at this level on the 9th of February, and though a bit fragile, is on a nice run since last summer. #8 AZTEC hasn't faced the starter in three months, but is a zippy sort, and may last for a piece. 

#3 SICILIAN PRINCESS was a solid runner up when beginning her working life in Florence on Saint Valentine's Day, and we like the mettle shown in breaking 12th of 12 from the inside slot before quickly moving up into contending position. The surface transition shouldn't be too much of an issue, as gal is a half to Grade Two winner Dream Lith ( 405 K ), and 8-1 is a solid offering. #6 JODY'S PRIDE showed steady improvement over her three starts last year ( at increasing class levels ), and is but a neck shy of being three for three; deserving favorite. #7 CARMELINA hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but it's hard to argue with the four for five dirt boxscore -- which includes a win in her one outing when breaking from the outermost two posts. 

#7 QUALITY CHIC showed zilch in the most recent, but was a bit tardy to the party that day, and went into the deal with on a sweet 6:3-2-0 dirt streak. We're going to give him a chance to right the ship here, particularly with the fine local ledger. #4 COASTAL MISSION is an absolute win machine ( 17:11-3-1 ), and while the Cigar Mile may have been too tough a spot, he's won three of his last four ungraded dirt events, and we like that Bocachica comes up for the mount. #8 PETULANTE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has done little wrong in his to date, truncated career, and is an obvious factor if sound. 

Eight year old "horse" #4 MANNY WAH ( You'll be yelling 'Waaahhh' if you let that vet come into your stall, buddy boy. ) has always been a bit of a nibbler throughout his career, but you can feel free to upgrade the last, as he's proven to be a bit better on a track labeled FST. Demand every bit of that morning line offering in this extremely competitive rendition of the Tom Fool. #2 LISTENTOYOURHEART has won three of his last five, but if you wanted to forgive the pre & post L/O running lines ( which we often like to do ), then what you have is a gelding who's a completely different animal since switching conditioners. Only knock is that he's never seen these depths. #3 SUPER CHOW has been 1-2-3 in 15 of 16, and who are we to rock that boat. 

#7 EL GRANDE O sure is a game sort, ain't he ?  New York bred reminds us a bit of General Banker with similar overall resume's heading into the Gotham, and there are many things we dig about this fella. You can start with the way he showed some grit in losing by only a honker in the Withers ( after getting bumped ), then toss in the fact that he sheds a pound off that effort for today's primary 3rd off the layoff try, and include a nice 5:2-2-0 record beneath the gulls. One thing that really stands out to us is that he's had the lead at the top of the lane in 7 of 10 starts to date, while the rest of this grouping as done such in a CUMULATIVE 10 of 40 races. Should be in the thick of things late in the game, and at what may be a sexy price, given some big name connections signed on. #11 JUST A TOUCH was visually impressive in scoring at odds on right outta the box down in the Bayou goo three dozen days in the rear, and the sky appears to be the limit with this well bred chap. #6 AIR CAV ( uncoupled barnmate with 'Touch ) got the job done the only time he set foot on a fast surface, and you're getting a high percentage clan at 30-1. 

Aqueduct 55-253 ( $423.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 90-253 ( 35.6% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout