3/3 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Decent day for us here yesterday, as we went 10:3-2-0 on the card, with a $22 cold Exacta, $24 cold Double & $60 Cold Tri.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#4 PRINTRACK has proven to be a wonderful claim by Rudy Rod, as since the purchase ( along with one start beforehand ), this fella is but a half length shy of shooting for seven in a row this afternoon. Gelding has the sort of declining mark that we've grown to love ( 12:6-3-1 ), and should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there. #2 BIG ENGINE ( who absurdly won't be permitted to race here next year ) appears to have the best shot of upsetting the above based on having won two of his last five while also owning a snappy local mark. #6 CAN'T BEAT ME steps up after the January tally, and is another who digs this oval. 

#4 SPEIGHTS DANCE overcame a bit of tardiness to pick up the sheepskin right here on 1/5, and while that may be attributed to the Lasix addition, perhaps good guy Duggan just figured out what makes this gal tick. Threat right back against a fairly weak allotment. #6 DORTH'S SOL DANCER by no means disgraced herself when tangling with winners for the 1st time, in showing at 18-1, and is now in receipt of the wonder drug, while switching from a bug to a new journeyman. #5 TAVIN has been kept in jail since being bought a month and a half back, and returns at the level from that day, while also transitioning from an apprentice to a vet. 

#7 MIDDLE MARKET has done nothing to get the pulse racing to date, but quarter of a million dollar purchase is up for grabs today, which is fairly relevant. Over thelast 60 months, Brown is a poyfect 4 for 4 when giving his Aqueduct sand stock the biggest drop in the game ( while receiving "The Big L" ) off breaks of 22-50 days. The mutuels were $3, $9 & $5 x 2, and colt draws the outside for today's 2nd start off the pine. #1 HAVE YOU HEARD posted an adjusted 73.1 the only time he went over a fast track, and was well clear of a next out winner that day. Logical. #3 BOUNTEOUS will be brought over by a Hall of Famer who;s won with half of his six AQU based maiden claiming dirt entrants ( getting the miracle drug ) off sabbaticals of 20-50 days ( 5-1 or undah ). 

#1 GENTLEMAN JOE ( scratched Friday for this ) nearly went all the way vs. what we would consider to be a tougher allotment last out, and from an itty bitty sampling, Jacobsen is two of three with optional sand runners off L/O's of 51 days ( $13 & $7 ). #5 COWAN is 1 for 3 beneath today's pilot, and said score came in this zip code. #4 THRILL OF IT shoots for the hat trick today, and as his 4-10 Aqu. mark stands out favorable against the 0-7 record otherwise.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

After averaging just a 17.8 Beyer Speed Figure in the first five dirt starts to his career ( while besting but 11 in his primary 14 heats ), #5 A LISTER has turned things around of late, in averaging a 50 BSF over his subsequent quartet of main track engagements, while having partaken in the superfecta in two of his last three. Grey gelding moves from a 5 lb. bug rider to a 19% fella today, and 4% Edmund Pringle ( a sweetheart of a fella ) wins at a 3 for 4 click with his Ozone Park based male sand dashers at this level who were OUT of the money < 26 days back @ 36-1 or lower ( $13, $27 & $12 ), and that is much better than his 0-3 rate with those who were IN the money. No horse has a better 1X adjusted figaro in their last race, and we're getting 20-1. #10 GROWTH MINDSET lost by only two when finishing 4th behind two next out victors the only time he was last to load, and has hit the super in more than half of his dirt deals. #9 UNCLE EDDIE comes in off a decent showing and could spice things up.  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#1 SCARLET'S DREAM played the fade when dancing in the land of winners for the first time, but that's never an easy task, and given the solid duet of efforts just prior -- along with today's abandonment of blinkers -- we'll give her a chance to make amends. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the PP's of #3 CITY BLOCKS, as this miss has done nothing but improve along the way ( all right here, and most of the starts with today's jock ), so who truly knows where her ceiling is. #4 SOHANA is showing a tidy little "Z" pattern from the last ( when losing three lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining it all back -- plus 3/4's more -- from there to the line ), and showed numerical improvement in doing such. 

#6 KARA PARA is on a 5:2-3-0 skein, has a 7:2-3-2 boxscore at the dist. ( compared to being 9:0-1-2 otherwise ), and exits a race where the two who surrounded her returned victorious, essentially replicating the prior #'s. Oh, Ryerson has won with both of his dirt horsies who were 1-2-3 42 to 50 days in the rear. #9 BELLA PRINCIPESSA flopped in the slop, but closed out the triple in the two before that, and has done decently in Queens. #1 SAIL WITH THE WIND is 4:1-1-1 on the main, and that's cause enough to chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#8 ALOTTA JAYS has yet to finish in the first half of a field, but the start two back was better than it looks, as she was 15 lengths back at the quarter, before losing by only two at the end @ 48-1. The fact that she missed the board will help her offering today, and note the improvement displayed in that second start over a track labeled "FST". #10 DACTILOGRAFA has outran his parimutual offering in both starts with an "L" next to her wight assignment, and draws nicely while getting a better pilot at the helm. #6 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS undergoes a gamut of changes here, and would need to find but one to her liking to make an impression in the weakest race they run on the grounds here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:28, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 9 WILL BE OUR 2ND AND 3RD SELECTIONS RESPECTIVELY.

Aqueduct 58-263 ( $442.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 94-263 ( 35.7% )( As of Sunday morning ) 

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout