Couple of winners for us here on Sunday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #7 Petulante
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Laser Sharp | 2nd -Proprietary Trade | 3rd -Romantic Charmer |
#4 LASER SHARP has been just that in both starts to date, and although a bounce is always feasible in a second off the bench/2nd time Lasix scenario, right off the bat, this one must be left in the mix. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Terranova ( who's number we call on a lot with said platform ) is 4 for 9 with locally based maiden special weight dirt stock who crashed the party 6-50 days @ 7-1 or less ( $6, $7, $4 & $11 ), and there's a sub cat of 2-2 w/ 2nd off the shelf runners. #2 PROPRIETARY TRADE didn't do much to get the heart thumping at first asking, but $65K bred critter went for nearly 3X that amount at auction, and 415 Tommy says to give this one another chance. #7 ROMANTIC CHARMER bested half the field right outta the box @ 13-1 in the debut, and as Ferraro's runners improve over time, we'll toss into the mix.
| Race 2 | 1st -Frannie Lew | 2nd -Roman Goddess | 3rd -Take Time to Dream |
#7 FRANNIE LEW has shown some nice improvement since returning off a full calendar layoff, in breaking her maiden then following it up with a lively placing against winners. In a bit of an anomaly, gal ( presumably ) catches a fast track for the first time in this, her sixth call to the post, but is a smidgen better bred for it, so the transition shouldn't be too much of an issue. From a trainer stat POV, honk if you like Donk with his AQU female sand sprinters who were 1-2-3 < a month ago at this level, as he's a crisp 4-7 with that sort, and the winners came back $4, $5 & $9 x 2. #3 ROMAN GODDESS takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for 35 large a baker's dozen days back, and is reunited with a pilot he's had some nice success with. Not hopeless. #1 TAKE TIME TO DREAM put it all together with a snappy maiden breaking tally on February 11th, and is in a 3rd off the bench situation here, so perhaps the light bulb stays on.
| Race 3 | 1st -Talkin Pharoah | 2nd -Newport Bridge | 3rd -Face Abarrio |
#5 TALKIN PHAROAH immolated some baccala when returning off an elongated absence, but we're assuaged by the fact that his only other second off the break jammie yielded a wire to wire score with an adjusted Beyer Speed Figure of 86.7. Oh, you'll see that Linda Rice has "transferred" the horse over to a family member, as she's currently serving -- you got it, a suspension. #7 NEWPORT BRIDGE got up in time at the level just below this 25 days back, but adds eight pounds off that, so we'll keep beneath. #1A FACE ABARRIO has played the fade in his last troika, but gets in light and drops in class. NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Compute It | 2nd -Uptomykneesinit | 3rd -Retail Man |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. Despite not being as well bred for the goo as a glib surface, #5 COMPUTE IT improved by a couple'a of points in placing for the second time in as many heats, and as long as there's a bit of pace in front of him, should be able to get the job done today; should be at least 3rd, for those who like to grind out a show profit. #4 UPTOMYKNEESINIT has no palpable excuse for the grisly effort last out, but gets juice for the first time while taking the biggest drop in the biz. In regards to the latter, barn is 4-9 when doing that to their Aqu. male dirt runners ( getting the wonder drug ) at 13-1 or below ( 14-37 days ). The parimutel payoffs for that study were $3, $4, $5 & $15, and fella goes over a track labeled FST for the 1st time. #6 RETAIL MAN returns off the freshening with blinkers, and is 2nd time miracle drug.
| Race 5 | 1st -Call Her Bluff | 2nd -Lucky and Gorgeous | 3rd -Stress Reliever |
#1 CALL HER BLUFF has yet to finish out of the superfecta, slides in four slots off a 2+ length defeat, and although we're not quite sure what gets her over the hump today, we're thinking it's attrition more than anything else. Definite 1-2 playah. #7 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS hasn't seen the scene since New Year's Eve, but gets the big "L" for the first time, and the bow wasn't half bad. #4 STRESS RELIEVER is showing a baby "Z" pattern from the lid lifter, and has blinkers added in hopes of getting her some better zip early on. NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET AND A SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-5-4.
| Race 6 | 1st -Kinetic Sky | 2nd -Divine Armor | 3rd -Swiftsure |
#5 KINETIC SKY is in some excellent form these days, and you can actually feel free to upgrade the last by about 7.4%, as he's proven to be better over a track without moisture in it. The 13:4-3-4-1 record at The Big A stands out, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. #1 DIVINE ARMOR placed in a near identical spot a week and a half ago, and on the whole, has done okay over this oval. #2 SWIFTSURE is a speedy sort who draws the inside for the first time, and owns a tight 3:2-1-0 ledger at today's distance of ground. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. NOTE: AS OF 11:12 A.M. TUESDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 PETULANTE will be led over by a shotcaller who's oh-fer-16 when being given a dirt horse & bringing them back off breaks of more than three fortnights. NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET AND A SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-1-2.
| Race 7 | 1st -Frau Diablo | 2nd -Dame Cinco | 3rd -Timely Conquest |
#7 FRAU DIABLO rebounded after bouncing in the win off the respite, to pick up 20% of the pot in this race at 12-1, and we see that blinkers are now a part of the makeup, which is fine by us, as we like when a trainer gets aggressive with equipment/medication changes after a good effort. Jock upgrade in store, and we'll give this one a slight edge in the day's feature. #2 DAME CINCO was quite a disappointment in the most recent, but likes the local seagulls, and is supported by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, this shedrow is four fer six with their female allowance dirt equines off sabbaticals of 23-46 days ( 18-1 or undah ), with the victorious coming back $6 x 2, $7 & $12. #5 TIMELY CONQUEST has won three of four sprints, and what the hell's wrong with that? NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO A SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Majestic Frontier | 2nd -Khafre | 3rd -Bourbon Calling |
#1 MAJESTIC FRONTIER overcame some trouble when finishing a dead game runner up vs. slightly weaker @ 19-1, and although this one is a notorious nibbler at today's dx., we dig that he's 2:1-1-0 in 3rd off the absence jamborees. According to Formulato, D'ally is a tidy 2 for 6 with Ozone Pk. based dirt equines at this level who were ITM < 24 days ago ( $17 & $14 ). 5:2-0-2 boxscore when first to load helps matters. #5 KHAFRE is a lightly raced 6 year old, but his best work has come right here, and is eligible to rebound. #7 BOURBON CALLING has never seen these depths, and has fared well beneath the gulls. NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO THE A KEY SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-4.
Aqueduct 60-271 ( $456.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 96-271 ( 35.4% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
