Just a pair of chalky winners on a mess of a day yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Natural Fact | 2nd -Cracklin Cat | 3rd -Isn't She Khozy |
#2 NATURAL FACT displayed marked improvement 2nd time out, and after breaking a bit tardily that day, has blinkers added for today's 2nd start over a glib surface. Wouldn't be surprised to see another move forward in the second off the bench jammie. #4 CRACKLIN CAT gets her working papers today, and totes along a bevy of crisp morning moves for such. Gal is a half to a 21:4-3-5-5 runner ( 173K ), and needn't be much to make an impression. #3 ISN'T SHE KHOZY hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but posted an adjusted 47.6 in the bow, and is much, much better bred for the green than the brown. Factor if sound and fully cranked up. NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Joey the Fish | 2nd -Holiday Jazz | 3rd -Sister Linda |
#2 JOEY THE FISH has been alternating losses and wins over her last quintet, so today should be a score, right ? If only the game was that easy. Aside from that, gal finds herself at her lowest level to date, and the 13:3-1-1 local ledger stands out against her 7:0-0-0 record otherwise. From a DRF Formulator point of view, 7% Randi more than triples that rate ( 21 for 80 ) with locally based mid level dirt dashers at 12-1 or less, and there's a whopping $3.81 ROI in that regards as well. #3 HOLIDAY JAZZ showed little in the most recent, but the penultimate effort was honest enough, and lady drops 6K. #4 SISTER LINDA is another who's never seen these depths, but her best work has come at today's distance of ground, and barn is having a decent meet.
| Race 3 | 1st -Bolt d'Plata | 2nd -Egypt | 3rd -Login Required |
#2 BOLT D'PLATA has hit the board in four straight, and Terranova ( who always seems to provide us with solid Formulator ) is a snappy 11:4-2-2-1 with Aqueduct based dirt horsies at this level who crashed the fiesta 6-50 days back @ 6-1 or undah. There's a $2.55 return on investment for that study, and a sub category of 1 for 2 with today's helmsman. #3 EGYPT has been freshened up a bit after a lively runner up finish directly in front of a next out winner, and his sole start after a sabbatical yielded a career best figaro. 5th different jockey from as many outings has done well with this clan, and is an obvious player if ready to go. #4 LOGIN REQUIRED has closed out the exacta in both starts after a break, and is showing a couple of bullets for today's return. NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Uncle George | 2nd -Magia Nera | 3rd -Reserve Currency |
#7 UNCLE GEORGE has been camera shy since the bow nearly four years ago, but lost by a nose the last time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie, and is supported by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, barn is three of seven with Ozone Park mid level dirt runners on the main who missed the baccala less than a baker's dozen days back ( 13-1 or below ), and the payouts were $18, $13 & $3. #2 MAGIA NERA was an honest runner up at this level last out and is sensible once again. #1 RESERVE CURRENCY lost by only a honkah the one time he was in a third off the layoff spot, and this $375,000 auction purchase now has the white flag run up for the first time.
| Race 5 | 1st -Complete Agenda | 2nd -Milano | 3rd -Flash Kiss |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 COMPLETE AGENDA has completed the exacta in his last pair, and best work has come beneath the seagulls. Logical, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #4 MILANO split the field when returning from a 13 month hibernation, and this fragile seven year old lost by only a noggin the last time he was spotted for a quarter. #2 FLASH KISS takes the obligatory hike in class after overcoming some trouble to pick up the lion's share two fortnighs in the past, and draws snugly.
| Race 6 | 1st -Uncle Water Flow | 2nd -Best Bet | 3rd -Honed |
#1 UNCLE WATER FLOW has completed the tri the last two times he went one turn over a fast track, but slides in 3 & 7 spots respectively off those ( while carrying six less pounds than one of them ), and is backed by a solid trainer stat. Over the last five years, this bossman has a 4-11 record with Aqu. dirt entrants at this level who missed the baccala <40 days ago at 12-1 or under ( $14, $7, $5 & $2 ), and there's a sub cat of 2-2 w/ this bug aboard. #4 BEST BET has tons of early hoof, and showed the 1 time he was in a third off the L/O spot, BUT expensive purchase plummets today, so it would behoove you to take a gander in the paddock. #6 HONED also drops once again, but trainer is 3 fer 7 with Queens based, second off the absence male dirt sprinters who were OTB less than 39 days past ( mid level ), and the winners returned $18, $20 & $7.
| Race 7 | 1st -Six Percent | 2nd -Writer's Regret | 3rd -Mason Mania |
#4 SIX PERCENT has been kept in jail since the Feb. 4th purchase, and after an even 4th place finish that day, comes back at the same level this afternoon. Meeeeeeekest of selections in a race that's hard to embrace. #9 WRITER'S REGRET has won two of three, three of seven, and found the line first the only time he loaded last on a glib surface. #6 MASON MANIA has been a popular item at the claim box of late, but prefers the fringes at The Big A, so we'll relegate to the unders. NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO ALL OUR SELECTIONS BEING SCRATCHED, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-3-1.
| Race 8 | 1st -Solo Tonight | 2nd -Seba M | 3rd -In a Minute |
#10 SOLO TONIGHT finds himself at his lowest level yet, posted an adj. 48.8 the one time his hooves were on a strip, labeled FST, and will be brought over by a chap who's won 4 of 6 times with AQU based mdclm. dirt runners who missed the $ 23-40 days ago that are beneath the 7-1 watermark. The parimutuel returns for that survey were $3 x 2, $8 & $10, and there's a sub category of 2-2 w/ today's helmsman astride. #6 SEBA M gets the wonder drug for the first time, and the 387 Tommy tells us there's room for improvement off the initial dirt deal. #4 IN A MINUTE gets an "Around the world" treatment here ( Blinkers off, first time wonder drug, and first time sans tes-tee-klees ) and would only need to find one of those to his liking to display some improvement.
Aqueduct 62-279 ( $467.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 100-279 ( 35.8% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
