3/9 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #8 Mistical Curlin

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#2 CATCHING HEAT gets her working papers this afternoon, and does such with THREE bullet breezes on the docket, which automatically merits inclusion. $15,000 bred gal went for more than 23X that amount at KEE in 2022, and this is the first foal out of a dam who scored in her secondary outing, and ALL of the five remaining members of the family tree got the job done right outta the box. Could be any kind. #5 I'M THINKING draws ideally for today's lid lifter, and boasts a 416 Tommy as well. We'd be remiss in excluding. #1 ROMAN GRACE completes our troika of debuters in the opener, and despite the decent pedigree, we'll keep beneath because of the inside placement. 

#5 PIT BOSS has lost ground in the lane in his last troika, but drops in class for the 3rd straight time, and is backed by a decent DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, this barn is a tight three for right with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the money < 18 days ago ( ridden by Castillo ) at 13-1 or beneath. Those winners came back $13, $18 & $3, and this one should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #4 BLUE GROTTO has been grisly over his last pair, but finds herself at an all time low, and best work has come right here. Chance to wake up a bit at a price. #7 MR PHIL has been a part of the exacta in more than half of his Queens outings & loses the eye cups today.   NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

We have three decent sets of Formulator stats in play here, and as it's 2:43 in the morning, let's get to 'em in a no frills fashion.  #8 WATCH HILL: Maker is 3 of 5 with Aqueduct maiden claiming dirt runners not getting Lasix at 21-1 or beneath ( less than 33 days ). #7 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE: 'Miah has the same mark as the above with his AQU based sand starters @ this level ( getting the big "L" ) who were 1-2-3 less than 40 days in the rear at 9-1 or below ( $5 x 2 & $9 ). #5 WAFLR: Donk owns a 3-10 ledger w/ Ozone Pk. mdclm. entrants who hit the board 11-30 days back ( with the miracle drug ).  

#3 MAGIC EXPRESS was a lively and well clear runner up when facing similar type at Philadelphia Park on Saint Valentine's Day, and comes into today's affair backed by a solid trainer statistic. For the last 1,826 days, Russell is a poyfect 6 fer 6 with 3YO second time male dirt starters who were 1-2-3 off L/O's of 1-50 days ( getting Lasix & blinkers ) below the 3-1 watermark ( $4.17 ROI ). #2 MIDWAY LIGHTS ( who should be in the top three for all you show grinders ) went for nearly a half'a mil at Ocala last year, and the three sibs who made it to the races went 3:1-1-1 in their bows. #4 PLAY has been freshened up since the disappointment in January, and as Linda rice is serving a suspension for a drug positive, ADAM Rice leads this one's over.

#8 MANDATORY scored by a pole against weaker on the 16th of February, and although he;s failed to hit the exacta in four starts at today's level just below that, it's hard to ignore that nearly triple digit Beyer from the most recent, ain't it ?  Recognize the 4:1-2-0 record when last to load, especially as it stands out in comparison to his 17:1-4-4 boxscore otherwise. #3 M B'S MUNNING appears to be the mainger danger to the above, based on the four consecutive ITM finishes, and his sharp record right here. #4 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL has partaken in the super in six straight, eight of nine, and can grab a check. 

#6 WARALO immolated some baccala when entering off a grouping of his three best numbers to date, so that ( lack of ) effort can be forgiving to a certain degree, however, front wraps were reapplied that afternoon, so it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. We'll give this one a chance to rebound at what may likely be a square offering. #5 LOCKE AND KEY is on a decent 6:2-1-2 skein since last August, and could do with some pace to cut into. #7 KENTUCKY JOKER sheds three lb.'s off a win versus what we would consider to be a tougher grouping, so how can we dismiss ?   NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 GHOSTLY PRINCE was a hard trying runner up when tangling with somewhat stouter competition three dozen days in the past, and two of three returnees from that jamboree returned victorious ( the 3rd was 71-1 ), and said victresses improved by an avg. of one point each. From a Formulator point of view, Rudy Rod is a crisp three for five with AQU based allowance dirt horsies who took part in the fiesta 22-50 days ago ( 16-1 or less ) ridden by Silvera ( $6, $7 & $20 ). #9 LUCENCY comes in off of successive career best figs and has yet to disappoint superfecta punters. Logical. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the PP's of #5 EXPECTED VALUE, as this four year old has done nothing but improve over time. Blinks are now added for today's 3rd start off the pine, and jock is on a 9 for 11 run with this barn ( going back to April 2nd, 2002 ) with one turn dirt runners off breaks of 1-190 days, withe the winners paying $10, $12, $11, $4 x 2 $9, $19, $15, $5 & $2.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 MISTICAL CURLIN   NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#5 HOT FUDGE has won 7 of 8 on the main outside of Graded company, is two of two with today's jockey, and comes out of a race where the lone comebacker returned victorious, improving in the BSF dept, by an adjusted 19.8%, Mare owns the ability to send or rate, and looms a strong favorite for Lin---, errr....Adam Rice. #4 KANT HURRY LOVE is 4:1-3-0 in second off the L/O spots, and consistent mare has missed the super but once in 19 tries, so how can one leave out? #2 STARSHIP DEFIANT has the sort of declining record that we dig ( 30:7-5-3 ), and can land a share.

#5 HE HAS IT ALL overcame some trouble to finish a solid 2nd behind an open lengths winner when starting things out in a similar spot on 2/3, and the decent bloodlines tell us the honest effort was likely not a fluke. From a trainer stat P.O.V., barn has a Handal on things with their 2TS'ers at this level who were in the money 27-47 days back ( getting the wonder medication ), as they're 3 for 4 w/ that sort ( $4, $6 & $12 ). #9 GLINT takes his first afternoon trek to the frontside today, and brown gelding draws ideally, while bringing along a 370 Tomlinson figure for the trip. Four of six upstairs members of the family tree got their diplomas second time out ( with three of 'em placing beforehand ). #8 SOCIETY MAN cuts back & drops down for today's third start off the sabbatical, and has juice added as well. Likely to be overbet, however. 

Aqueduct 63-287 ( $470 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 104-287 ( 36.2% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout