3/10 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None   Decent day for us here yesterday with a handful of winners, a successful Beatable Favorite, a $24 cold Triple, two cold Exactas of $14 & $8, and two cold Doubles of $12 & $7. 

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#5 THE TACO LADY finished in the back half of the pack when starting things out on the 11th of February, but gets a much better post this afternoon, while receiving blinks & the wonder drug for the first time. Trevor has done substantially better with Maker than without, as he's on a 15:5-5-0 run with non firsters at 16-1 or less, and the winners came back a very healthy $10, $19, $14 x 2 & $12. #4 STAMP OF APPROVAL bested the above by less than a length in the aforementioned race, and the pedigree ( along with the purchase price ) tells us there's likely some room for improvement. #1 LUMENIQUE came along decently to pick up 12% of the pot at first asking, and is another now getting eye cups and "The Big L". 

#3 BRICK AMBUSH has done nothing but improve over his quartet of starts ( which includes a grotesque disqualification in the stakes two back ), and while the sky's the limit, keep in mind that the upwards trajectory can't continue forever, and regressions often happen in 2nd time Lasix scenarios. Nonetheless, should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #1 MAD BANKER appears to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart based on being another one with speed figures heading in the right direction, while also owning a win the one time he went today's dist. of ground. #2 ALLIED ATTACK completes our troika of selections who've done nothing but get better and better, & comes in off a wire job to procure the sheepskin. 

#1 COLONEL VARGO was sent to the sidelines for 52 days after a win & voided claim versus softer, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a looksie pre race. That being said, chestnut chap is a spectacular 8:6-1-1 over a glib surface, and there's a 3:2-1-0 sub cat when breaking from the innermost two slots. #6 LAFITTE'S FLEET has never seen these depths, but has done quite well at the trip, and jock who's done well for this clan sticks around despite the recent disappointment. #4 SKI PATROL has excelled at this dx. & beneath the seagulls, and is backed by a solid Formulator statistic which has Atras winning half of the ten times he entered a locally based mid lever dirt dashers who scored less than 50 days ago ( ridden by this pilot ), and there's a $2.34 ROI in that regards. 

#4 AELFGAR showed precipitous improvement from his first start to the followup, when finishing a daylight clear runner up in a group of 10 at 35-1, and given the low percentage connections, we feel he may be overlooked a bit once again. Slight edge in a deal with no first draft tosses. #5 WITHIN VIEW was a mite tardy to the party when getting his working papers 37 days back, but was still available to close out the triple that afternoon, and with the 380 Tomlinson figure ( which shows room for some improvement ) we like today's aggressive move to protected company. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Handal is three of five with 2nd time sand starters at this level who were 1-2-3 22-47 days in the rear, and the winners returned $4, $6 & $12. #1A BOSS THREE O TWO rounds out the top three. 

#4 TEMPERMENTAL is a fairly consistent sort who's hit the board in her last quintet, and while her best work has come at The Big A, there was a voided claim last time out, so it would behoove you to examine this one in the paddock. Aside from all that, there's solid trainer statistic in play here. Over the last 260 weeks, this outfit doubles their normative 20% batting average with Aqueduct dirt sprinters at this level who were ITM 25-45 days ago ( 9-1 or less ). They're 21 for 52 in that area ( 40% ), with  $3.03 return on investment. Looks like a solid 1-2 playah. #2 EROS'S GIRL has been a touch out of form of late, but totes the lightest impost of her career, and could perk up a bit. #3 MAGGIE was a nicely clear runner up at 8-1 ( behind  next out victress ) the only time she was in a 3rd off the bench spot, and is one of three at the trip. 

 helmsman. Most mild of selections in a race that's difficult to embrace. #1 BEACH BOY AL is a win machine ( 5 of 14 ) and owns a one fer two ledger when breaking from the wood. #2 PERFECT MUNNINGS exits a race where the 2nd, 3rd, AND 4th place finishers all returned victorious, improving in the speed figure area by an avg. of 5.7 pts. per. Toss in a win the only time he was first to load on the main, and you have the makings of a live runner. 

Aside from the start where he stumbled and was eased, #1 KUPP has done very little wrong over his last ten afternoon treks to the frontside, as the 10:4-4-1-1 record over that time belies. Brown fella takes what we would consider to be a slight drop in class after the recent placing, is but a head shy of being 3 fer 3 when getting loaded first, and his finest performances have occurred at today's distance of ground. #8 NARCISO DALI popped & stopped in the 2/10 affair, but had posted his two best BSF's just before that, and can be somewhat forgiving of the fade. We'll afford him the opportunity to rebound with the nice local mark behind him. #6 RYAN'S CAT went all the way last out, and as that was his best over a wet track, if you felt inclined to prorate it to his finest effort on a glib surface, what you come up with is a # that would most definitely be worthy of meriting inclusion. 

#4 CLASSIC KINGDOM didn't do much to get the heart thumping first time out, but the 394 Tommy is strong enough to give him another look today, especially as the bullet gate move before the bow tells us that he may be better than the running line tells us. #1 CONNIVING went from a 33 to a 59 from his primary dirt heat to the next, and who knows where the ceiling is for today's third start off the sabbatical. #8 MR. GEORGIE hails from a family tree where the five upstairs members of the family tree got their first tally withing the primary two engagements. 

Aqueduct 65-296 ( $491.90 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 111-296 ( 37.5% )( As of Sunday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)

Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout