A pair of winners for us on Sunday as we're on a little 7 for 17 run of late.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Quiet Wisdom | 2nd -Mama's Dream | 3rd -Land d'Oro |
#4 QUIET WISDOM has positively immolated baccala in each & every start to date, and aside from his consistency in that regards, is that he's been as equally steady in partaking in the superfecta. What's gonna get this grey chap over the hump today ? Well, perhaps it's the fact that The Toddster is a snazzy 10:5-4-1 with locally based dirt dashers at this level who crashed the fiesta 18-50 days ago @ 6-1 or less and ( ridden by this jock ), who are also in receipt of the wonder drug. #2 MAMA'S DREAM has gone 7-51-69 in her triad of sand starts thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where the roof is in that regards. The lattermost of those was a nicely clear runner up at 17-1, and Maker owns a tight 3 for 5 record w/mdspwt dirt entrants in Ozone Park, who crashed the party 16-43 days back ( getting Lasix ). Those winners came back $4, $11 & $10, and there's a sub cat of 2-2 with this jock astride. Given his 372 Tommy, #1 LAND D'ORO is eligible to improve off the bow. NOTE: AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Juliana's Rose | 2nd -Strange Fruit | 3rd -Afillada |
#3 JULIANA'S ROSE was eased in the comebacker ( yikes ), but finds herself at her lowest level to date, is one of three in 2nd off the shelf jamborees, and Hennig is on the Mark with mid level females on the main off absences of 51-59 days, as he's won with ALL three starters in that area ( $10 & $4 x 2 ). Price play. #2 STRANGE FRUIT can complete our "All Eased" exacta, based on the fact that Reynolds wraps up the competition when he enters a dirt gal right here who missed the $ 22-45 days in the rear ( mid level claimers ), with mutuels of $5 x 2, $7 & $14. #4 AFILADA is a nibbler by rote ( 20:1-6-7-4 ) and makes a fine looking "unders" candidate. NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Hot Rod Rumble | 2nd -Mr Bob | 3rd -Big Save |
We don't have the best of reads here, so tread lightly. #3 HOT ROD RUMBLE has oodles of zip, likes this trip, digs this zip, and for those who dig him, we'll give you no lip. #1 MR BOB disappointed when returning from a brief freshening, but owns a win & a placing from as many second off the bench spots, and we always find it encouraging when the pre layoff pilot returns. #2 BIG SAVE has hit the board in six of his last seven, and we see no reason he can't pick up another check despite the big hike in class.
| Race 4 | 1st -Baroness Bourbon | 2nd -Handle On You | 3rd -Princess Vino |
This threesome should suffice for all our rolling action. #1 BARONESS BOURBON lost all hope when breakdancing at the onset last out, but had a win & a nose defeat just before that, and now draws snugly while receiving the miracle drug for the 1st time. As this miss was ascending the speed figure ladder with each passing dirt try just before that, we see a scenario with some inflated value here after the last. #3 HANDLE ON YOU put forth an honest showing when facing winners for the first time, and that's never an easy spot. Jock from the maiden breaker ( her lone start when entered for a tag on a fast track ) returns, and gal is in a "2nd time juice" spot ( never to be ignored ). #2 PRINCESS VINO has yet to miss the board and who are we to rock that boat ? NOTE: DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR CORRECT SELECTIONS ARE 1-4-2, NOT 1-3-2.
| Race 5 | 1st -The Mighty Don | 2nd -Alpha Sonny | 3rd -Dolly's Bank |
#5 THE MIGHTY DON has been out of action for more than two months, but posted a career best numero ( 66.6 adj. ) the only time he returned off a sabbatical, and it's always encouraging to see the pre layoff pilot return. From a trainer stat point of view, shedrow is three of five with maiden claiming sand sprinters ( getting Lasix ), off layoffs of 54-109 days ( $11, $10 & $6 ). #2 ALPHA SONNY has finished in the first flight but once in seven career outings, but showed improved speed in the most recent, and Ferraro is having a fine meet. #1 DOLLY'S BANK has gone 43-54-55 in his fast track forays, and we wouldn't be surprised to see some improvement here.
| Race 6 | 1st -Anileate | 2nd -Graceful Rose | 3rd -Ocean Gateway |
#3 ANILEATE ( another decent claim by Jimmy ) is a bit of an in and outer, but her last start on a glib surface yielded an open length victory ( right here ), and rates a slight edge in a tough race to decipher. #4 GRACEFUL ROSE comes in off a decent win down in Maryland, and that was her only start at a flat mile. #7 OCEAN GATEWAY got the job done at odds on when facing conditional platers on January 18th, and is two of four when breaking from the outermost two slots. Logical, given the speed figure garnered that afternoon.
| Race 7 | 1st -Spiked | 2nd -Give Me Kisses | 3rd -Towhead |
#2 SPIKED returned off an elongated absence to close out the triple in nice fashion at 14-1 in the Heavenly Prize, and gal has hit the board in both of her other "second off the bench" spots. Wonder drug once again part of the equation, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #7 GIVE ME KISSES is two fer two when being sent off from the outside two post positions, & is two of four in Ozone Park. Sensible. #4 TOWHEAD has a touch of back class and can grab a piece. NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Strategic Decision | 2nd -Apuro | 3rd -Crown That Saint |
#5 STRATEGIC DECISION was eased in the bow, but this Triple Crown nominee can be all yours for 1/5th of the purchase price in today's first start with the eye cups. Take a looooooong look in the warmups, however. #6 APURO did in fact "hurry" out of the gate last time out, and although he faded to 3rd that day, likely needed the race, and is another dropping in class here. Could move forward with that under his girthstrap. #8 CROWN THAT SAINT is doubled up in price after a strong runner up finish on 2/25 at big odds, and we like the improved speed shown that day.
Aqueduct 67-304 ( $506.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 115-304 ( 37.7% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
