Decent day for us here yesterday with a pair of winners, a $545 Rolling pick Five, four Rolling Pick Threes of $109, $127, $65 & $30, and a $26 Cold Double.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Hot Candy | 2nd -Tooshay | 3rd -Jayla |
#4 HOT CANDY takes the biggest drop in the game while cutting back from two turns to one this afternoon, while also having eye cups affixed for the first time. Meeeeeekest of selections in a hum drum opener. #1 TOOSHAY has been a different animal since changing barns last June ( having hit the board in four of five ), and fared okay the only time he was in a 2nd off the bench placement. Likely fave/co-fave. #5 JAYLA has partaken in the super in ten of thirteen career outings, and can't fault those wanting to chunk in.
| Race 2 | 1st -Predicted | 2nd -Disappearance | 3rd -Thistle |
#4 PREDICTED takes a precipitous drop in class despite losing by less than a length for a quarter on Friday, so it would behoove you to take a looksie pre race. That being said, this grey gelding always gives it the ol' college try, and that's never more evident as when he's in a second off the layoff scenario, as he's hit the board four times in as many attempts off that kind of break. #1 DISAPPEARANCE is another one sliding down the ladder, but could do with some pace to cut into. #5 THISTLE has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but has never seen these depths, and is 3:1-0-1-1 off a L/O & on the main.
| Race 3 | 1st -Hydra | 2nd -Divine Cross | 3rd -Midtown Rose |
#6 TO A T basically won in an identical spot on the 10th of February, so why not again ? #5 DIVINE CROSS has already paid dividends for Jimmy Ferraro after being snagged for $12,500 two back, as she was a gamely runner up vs. 16K foes in the followup. We like the aggressive move up the ladder for an outfit that's had some nice success with their purchases over the last few years. You have to admire a horse like #1A MIDTOWN ROSE, who was bred for just $1,500 many moons ago, and is slowly approaching the half million dollar mark. She's still getting claimed these days, and why not, as she's still getting it done. Logical contendress.
| Race 4 | 1st -Shesalittle Edgy | 2nd -Ferraro entry | 3rd -Pretti Xtreme |
After taking a couple of months off, #5 SHESALITTLE EDGY went coast to coast like butter and toast against similar type 27 days in the rear, and although this one hasn't fared well at the dx., we'll lean her way in a race with just two first draft tosses. Both the #1 JACKIE THE JOKER ( coming in off a career best # on a fast track ) and the #1A ICY REPLY ( 8 of 11 ITM beneath the seagulls ) comprise decent factions of the James Ferraro trained entry. #3 PRETTI XTREME can be forgiven the stakes disaster, but is on a 5:4-0-1 streak when made available for purchase prior to that, and could rebound at a decent number.
| Race 5 | 1st -Apollonia Vitelli | 2nd -Song of Solomini | 3rd -Saratoga Smokeshow |
#6 APOLLONIA VITELLI ( no relation to fellow 'Godfather' monikered 'Apollonia C' ) has been in the money over her last duet, and sheds 96 ounces off the last. Filly cuts back to 1X this afternoon, and while a sensible choice, take note that front wraps were added in the last. #4 SONG OF SOLOMINI has Lasix added for today's 3rd start off the L/O, and could do with a better beginning today. #1 SARATOGA SMOKESHOW has been befallen by back to back breaks, but takes the biggest drop in the land now, and couldn't land in a softer spot in the weakest race they run on this circuit.
| Race 6 | 1st -Dazzy | 2nd -Take Time to Dream | 3rd -Dolce Sera |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 DAZZY hasn't been seen in a couple'a Halloweens, but has a decently tucked away 48 flat breeze for the return, and recognize that today's jock guided this one to a maiden breaking tally right outta the box 2 1/2 years ago. Obviously, a pre race looksie is warranted. #1 TAKE TIME TO DREAM bested but one in her first swim in the pool of winners, but that's never an easy placement, and Rudy Rod puts blinkers on for the first time. ( Not on him, but the horse, of course. ) #3 DOLCE SERA drops some weight and drops in class; may jazz things up beneath. NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Cloud Forest | 2nd -Assume Nothing | 3rd -Kant Beat the Rock |
#7 CLOUD FOREST was sent to the sidelines after a solid runner up finish two months back, and although there's been a couple of gaps on the wortab since, we're assuaged by the fact that the pre absence pilot climbs back aboard for an outfit he's done better with than without. #6 ASSUME ( "Did you say 'Assume?" ) NOTHING made every call a winning one vs. N2L foes at Laurel 19 days in the past, and not only does he drop three lb.'s off that tally, but has yet to miss the money on a track labeled FST. #2 KANT BEAT THE ROCK is wheeled right back after a 3rd place finish on Saturday, and although we don't have the Beyer as of this writing, you'd have to think it was good enough to merit inclusion.
| Race 8 | 1st -Khali Magic | 2nd -Midtown Lights | 3rd -My First Love |
#4 KHALI MAGIC has been kept in jail since a win/claim under identical circumstances on January 28th. All the way once again. #1 MIDTWON LIGHTS makes her 3rd start off a hibernation, and the only other time that was tried, an adjusted 84.8 was hung up ( in a stakes, and without the miracle drug ). Chestnut lady is reacquainted with blinks now ( her first time using them when on the sand ), and draws snugly. We like to be forgiving of pre & post layoff running lines ( It's a way to get some value. ), and by doing that to #3 MY FIRST LOVE, you can get back to a string of strong efforts. 12:5-1-3 mark at the dist. pops out in comparison to her 10:0-2-1 boxscore at other trips.
Aqueduct 69-312 ( $520.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 118-312 ( 37.7% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
