HAPPY SAINT PATRICK'S DAY !! Be safe, everyone.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Proud Foot | 2nd -Starship Defiant | 3rd -Portage |
#3 PROUD FOOT has shown "miraculous" improvement since being claimed by Dutrow back in October -- posting three successive career best figaros -- so who quite knows where this one's ceiling is. Major player. #4 STARSHIP DEFIANT put forth an honest showing in the Correction, and as this one is historically better over a glib surface, we wouldn't be surprised to see another solid effort. #2 PORTAGE immolated baccala when finishing up the track in a stakes deal for Linda Rice, and as she's currently suspended, ADAM Rice takes over. Lightly raced mare went all the way in her sole "3rd off the bench" try ( directly in front of a next out winner ), and we're expecting a rebound.
| Race 2 | 1st -Jackson's Dixie | 2nd -Silken Dollar | 3rd -True Empress |
#3 JACKSON'S DIXIE takes the obligatory hike after besting A1X foes, and is hard to knock. #1 SILKEN DOLLAR was an honest runner up in this race at the end of February, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. Recognize the game placing the only time she broke from the inside. #2 TRUE EMPRESS got up in time to beat allowance runners on 2/17, and you have to love this one's "declining" mark on a track labeled FST ( 22:8-4-3 ).
| Race 3 | 1st -Beary Funny | 2nd -Uncle Water Flow | 3rd -Papi On Ice |
#2 BEARY FUNNY is an extremely consistent sort, and after being snagged for 16K last month, is brought back at that very same level, having been kept in jail since that time. Maker having a fine stand, and gelding has fared well here. #1 UNCLE WATER FLOW is a nibbler by rote, but has partaken in the superfecta over his last quintet, and transitions from an apprentice to a veteran in this spot. Could grind out another piece. #3 PAPI ON ICE is a plodding plodder for sure, but J/T combo are on a 3 for 12 run with those returning off breaks of 47 days or lower, @ 17-1 or less. The winners in that study returned a healthy $27, $29 & $28, and there's a sub category of 2 for 5 with those who missed the board last out. NOTE: AS OF 10:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Mischief Joke | 2nd -Antonio of Venice | 3rd -Heavyweight Champs |
Today's featured race is named after the famed journalist Damon Runyon, and for some edification on the man, please go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Damon_Runyon . As for the race itself, we'll give a tepid nod to #5 MISCHIEF JOKE. Colt comes in off a win in a near identical placement on Jan. 28th, draws the outside for the first time, and has a 4:2-0-1 ledger in Ozone Park. #2 ANTONIO OF VENICE returned off a freshening to post a win & a placing, and enters this off a troubled ( but lifetime best ) effort. #4 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) got through the maiden ranks in a big way last time out, and is logical once again. NOTE: AS OF 10:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Candy Tycoon | 2nd -Majestic Frontier | 3rd -Hang Tight |
#6 CANDY TYCOON returned off an elongated sabbatical to finish dead last at 8/5 @ this level, and Rudy Rod displayed some gumption in dropping 20 large for this one, despite the absence off a voided claim. 7YO is 3:1-1-0 in 2nd off the bench dirt deals, and interesting to find a runner who tangled with Tiz the Law way back when. #7 MAJESTIC FRONTIER lost by only a head at this level when being sent off at 19-1 a month ago, and is 3:1-1-0-1 in third off the L/O jamborees. #2 HANG TIGHT rounds out the tri.
| Race 6 | 1st -Colonel Vargo | 2nd -First Deputy | 3rd -Dynamite Karma |
#8 COLONEL VARGO is 8:6-1-1 over a glib surface, and right off the bat, what the hell's wrong with that ? That includes being two for two when breaking from the outermost two slots, BUT there was a claim voided in the last, so it would behoove you to take a looksie in the paddock. #5 FIRST DEPUTY won this race on the 25th of February, so why couldn't he do it again ? #9 DYNAMITE KARMA is one of two when going from two turns to one, and has the same success when last to load on the brown stuff ( with none of those races overlapping ).
| Race 7 | 1st -Sweet Brown Sugar | 2nd -Bernietakescharge | 3rd -Caldwell Luvs Gold |
#2 SWEET BROWN SUGAR has won three of five ( one of 'em a stakes ), and we like her ability to send or rate a bit. Mild selection. #7 BERNIETAKESCHARGE has yet to finish out of the super, and that includes a win & a placing ( behind a next out winner ) the two times he was led into the starting apparatus last ( with the tally coming the only time he went 3/4's. #1 CALDWELL LUVS GOLD has been MIA for 3 1/2 months, but owns some back class, a last to first win in her one foray when beginning from the inside, and that tally ( along with another one ) were her only two dances at today's distance of ground.
| Race 8 | 1st -Necessaryandproper | 2nd -Zhen Lou | 3rd -Dactilografa |
#5 NECESSARYANDPROPER has had a case of "thirditis" when going over a fast track, and we're not quite sure what gets her over the hump this afternoon. but will side with her because of the totality of her work, in the weakest race they run on the grounds. #9 ZHEN LOU ( a film producer ) is displaying an extremely powerful "Z" pattern from the most recent, as after losing 5 1/4 lengths from the quarter to the half, gained back nearly ALL 11 from that point to the finish line. Jock upgrade in play as well. #2 DACTILOGRAFA finishes up our St. Patrick's Day card...enjoy your corned beef !!
Aqueduct 74-328 ( $547.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 124-328 ( 37.8% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
