Profitable grand slam for us here on Sunday ( $14, $5, $4 & $8 ), along with two cold Exactas ( $7 & $23 ), a $32 cold triple, and a $13 cold Double, as with two weeks left in the meet, we are currently besting the takeout rate.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Ava's Uncle Billy | 2nd -Compute It | 3rd -Sorority Prank |
#2 AVA'S UNCLE BILLY was in the back half of the pack when going over a fast track for the first time, and so this homebred is now made available for purchase for the first time. In regards to that last part, trainer is De Man ( "Allison..." ) when doing such with dirt dashers on this circuit off breaks of more than 34 days ( $4.09+ ROI ). #4 COMPUTE IT has hit the board in each start, and Ryerson more than doubles his normative 11% batting average ( 4 for 15 _ with maiden claiming sand stock who crashed the fiesta less than two fortnights back, who are 7-1 or undah. The winners in that study returned $4, $9, $8 & $11, and there's a sub category of 1 fer 2 with this jock aboard. #6 SORORITY PRANK is another taking the plunge this afternoon, and Hennig is on the Mark when doing such to to his dirt entrants ( receiving Lasix ) off breaks of six weeks or less ( $8, $5 & $6 ).
| Race 2 | 1st -Stop the Spread | 2nd -Newport Bridge | 3rd -Red D G P |
#3 STOP THE SPREAD nearly went all the way at 23-1 in a similar spot a baker's dozen days ago, and not only does this one slide in five slots, but is supported by a decent DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, Caramori ( 9% on the norm ) is a whopping 7 come 11 with his male sand dashers who missed the baccala < 25 days ago @ 12-1 or lower, and the winners paid $10, $3 x 2, $18, $20, $22 & $6. #1 NEWPORT BRIDGE showed little when besting but one from a race claimed from last time out, but grey gelding is crummy over a fast track, and new bossman Ferraro is having a fine stand. Oh yeah, Jimmy is two for 8 when buying a locally based dirt runner at this level ( 25-1 or below ) off L/O's of less than 27 days ) $18 & $14. #4 RED D G P won by a country mile the only time he was in a 3rd off the L/O spot, and has done well here.
| Race 3 | 1st -Teresa | 2nd -Moonlit Weekend | 3rd -Debbie Darling |
#5 TERESA undergoes a gamut of changes this afternoon ( first time Blinkers, first time wonder drug, drop in class, & totes his lightest weight to date ) and would need but to find one of those palatable to make a big move forward here. #7 MOONLIT WEEKEND has collected four minor checks from as many starts to date, and $2,500 bred animal is understandably put up for sale this afternoon. Gal draws ideally, and from an itty bitty study, good guy Duggan is 3:2-1-0 when giving his dirt horsies the biggest drop in the land off L/O's of seven weeks or less ( $5 & $12 ). #4 DEBBIE DARLING has shown improved speed since returning off a bit of a freshening, and isn't facing much in her first start for a new outfit. May forget to stop in today's 3rd start off the pine. NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Saka Shocka | 2nd -Z Dancer | 3rd -Mugsy Fury |
#2 SAKA SHOCKA begins his working life today, and does such with a decently tucked away 7th best of 119 gate breeze, along with an honest 351 Tomlinson figure for today's trip. Note that this one is a half to G1 winner Varda ( 363K ). #5 Z DANCER outran his parimutuel offering quite nicely when duking it out early on before placing at 13-1 on 2/23, and sheds 80 ounces off that performance. #4 MUGSY FURY as good as any for the show dough, but wondering why this 5YO hasn't been in with a tag yet.
| Race 5 | 1st -Black Almighty | 2nd -In a Minute | 3rd -Li'l Gang |
Not really feeling the heat from this heat. so tread lightly. #5 BLACK ALMIGHTY gave a solid account of himself when closing out the triple in his first start on the mainland, and we like the five furlong breeze put forth in preparation for today's extra half panel. #3 IN A MINUTE returned off a 3+ month absence to procure the sheepskin in wire to wire fashion over this oval, and while a regression is always possible in the "second off the layoff/2nd time Lasix/career best figure" try, we'd be remiss in excluding. #6 LI'L GANG is another who relished getting the miracle drug for the first time, as he was another breaking his maiden in front running fashion, and deserves to be left in the mix.
| Race 6 | 1st -Royal King | 2nd -G Munning | 3rd -Uncle George |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 ROYAL KING hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but posted a solid 86.3 ( adj. ) the only time he came back after a hibernation, and aside from that is one of two when breaking from the rail, while also having put forth a strong placing in his sole pairing with Franco. Gelding finds himself at his lowest level yet, but you'd be well served to take a looksie pre race. #8 G MUNNING is another dropping to an all time low, and is reunited with a jock, under whom he had a game 2nd two back. #5 UNCLE GEORGE ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out here ) must be included because of how he's plummeting, but caveat emptor. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Good Skate | 2nd -Laughing Boy | 3rd -Tabegauche |
#6 GOOD SKATE takes the obligatory hike up in class after overcoming some trouble to win smartly on the 3rd of February, and aside from his splendid 16:5-6-2 record beneath the seagulls, has hit the board in all three "3rd off the bench" jammies. Logical once again. #1A LAUGHING BOY flopped in the Stymie, but was on a 5:1-0-3-1 run just before that, and six year old "horse" ( It's no laughing matter if you see the vet coming, buddy boy ! ) has a 4:1-1-0 ledger when going from 1X to 2X on the sandy stuff. #4 TABEGAUCHE was a snappy $15 victor the only time he was in a 3rd off a break spot, and can land a share. NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Mister J T | 2nd -Chuck Willis ( Ire ) | 3rd -Jemography |
#1 MISTER J T hasn't hit the board over his last quartet, but we're assuaged by the fact that Gus is a crisp 4 of 5 with AQU based, second off the claim, dirt equines at this level who missed the $ less than 29 days in the rear ( $13, $9, $7 & $8 ). Chance to surprise a bit at what could be a square offering. #3 CHUCK WILLIS ( IRE ) has oodles of early zip, and digs this trip and strip. Threat of able to shake free early on. #6 JEMOGRAPHY is quite the warhorse, and we dig the "declining" mark of 18:6-5-2- at today's dist. of ground. NOTE: AS OF 10:45, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct 78-336 ( $578.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 127-336 ( 37.8% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
