Just one for us here yesterday, but we're still besting the takeout on the stand, with five days remaining.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Hot Rod Rumble | 2nd -Fight Fiercely | 3rd -Face Abarrio |
These three and no more for all our rolling action to start out the week. #5 HOT ROD RUMBLE has lost ground in the lane in 16 of 17 lifetime starts, but drops to an all time low this afternoon, owns tons of early zip, and his best work has come in Ozone Park ( 7:2-2-1 compared to being 10:0-2-2 otherwise ). Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #4 FIGHT FIERCELY hasn't hit the superfecta in his last quartet, but the start three back ( which is how fare we like to go ) was better than it looks, as it yielded an adjusted figaro of 70.1 at a much higher level. #2 FACE ABARRIO showed at this level last out and can do such once again.
| Race 2 | 1st -Happy's Smile | 2nd -Eastern Star | 3rd -Mischief Motion |
#1 HAPPY'S SMILE overcame a bit of trouble to close out the tri 27 days in the rear, and comes in today with a nice DRF Formulator stat behind her. Over the last five years, barn has won with half of their eight female mdspwt entrants ( getting Lasix ), who hit the board less than three fortnights back ( $4, $16, & $8 x 2 ). #4 EASTERN STAR has been a part of the super in five of six starts to date, and has enough speed to land a share once again. #6 MISCHIEF MOTION by no means disgraced herself when tangling with winners down in Maryland, as she lost by just 3 1/2 @ 39-1, and posted a best Beyer in the process. Cuts back to one turn and should be in the mix. NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish !! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Talkin Pharoah | 2nd -Chateau | 3rd -Horn of Plenty |
#2 TALKIN PHAROAH was a going away victor ( directly in front of a next out winner ) the only time he was in a third off the layoff situation ( with a lifetime best fig ), and takes the mandatory hike in class after the win/claim a half'a month back. Gelding is fleet afoot ( Ahoof ? ) and could go all the way. #1 CHATEAU went coast to coast like butter and toast at the level just below this on 2/19, and over his career, is 9:3-2-2 when first to load. Nine year old warhorse positively loves going 3/4's, as his 21:7-3-5 ledger in doing such shows, and is another who'll be on the choo choo early. #3 HORN OF PLENTY rounds out the top three.
| Race 4 | 1st -Dance With Me Babe | 2nd -Ms Hayley | 3rd -Army of Thoughts |
We have a pair of nice trainer statistics in store here, so let's get to 'em in a no frills fashion. #4 DANCE WITH ME BABE ( who is a head short of being two fer two in 2nd off the layoff jammies, with the win occurring the one time she did it on the dirt ), will be led over by someone who's a near perfect 4 fer 5 w/ the following: Aqu. based dirt fillies at this level who were 1-2-3 20-50 days in the past ( $13, $9, $6 & $5 ). #1 MS HAYLEY ( who hung up an adj. 81.1 without the wonder drug in her sole start off a break ) is backed by a 4 for 6 number with those at this level & locale who were bought more than 50 days ago beneath the 13-1 watermark ( $4.83 ROI ). #7 ARMY OF THOUGHTS got slaughtered in her first dance with victresses, but that's never an easy spot, and is eligible to rebound a bit.
| Race 5 | 1st -Cheeky Tico | 2nd -Mr. Ripple | 3rd -Centavo |
#1 CHEEKY TICO shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as we see today as a bit of a drop off the last tally, we'd say it's well within reach, especially as all his wins have come over this oval. #6 MR. RIPPLE gave a solid account of himself in his sole "3rd off the L/O" placement ( an adjusted 96.9 in the Florida Derby without the miracle drug ), and scored by a pole the only time he was last to load. Sensible. #4 CENTAVO had an excuse in the last, but went back to back ( $60 & $32 ) just before that, and still may be overlooked parimutually.
| Race 6 | 1st -Vegas Weekend | 2nd -Sweet as Sugar | 3rd -Killy Start |
#8 VEGAS WEEKEND was up the track when last in action, but goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, drops to unseen depths, and is supported by a solid Daily racing Form Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, Baker is cookin' with his sand sprinters at this level off L/O's of 15-34 days, as he's 6:4-1-1 with that type ( $5, $16 x 2 & $7 ). #7 SWEET AS SUGAR is another who finds herself at her cheapest level yet, and is one of two at the trip. #4 KILLY START disappeared from the worktab for 38 days after being claimed for 16K back in January, and even with a claim & a win, the owners would only stand to show approximately a $3,087 profit on the transaction ( they lose money with a placing ). Take a long look during the warmup. NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. NOTE: AS OF 12:59 P.M., DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Noble Huntsman | 2nd -Horse Be With You | 3rd -Provision |
#8 NOBLE HUNTSMAN didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the most recent, but there was an uncharacteristic best of 95 bullet breeze just prior to that, so maybe it took some of the starch out of the collar for the subsequent race. Could surprise at a solid number. #4 HORSE BE WITH YOU has completed the exacta in his last duet, and owns a 3:1-1-1 boxscore at today's distance of ground. #3 PROVISION put forth an even 4th place finish the only time he went from 1X to 2X, and can pick up a piece.
| Race 8 | 1st -Geopolitics | 2nd -Peony | 3rd -Tough Love Torres |
This troika should suffice. #4 GEOPOLITICS ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there ), was a gamely runner up right outta the box, and makes all kinds of sense right back. #8 PEONY finished just behind the above in said affair, and as we're not quite sure what could facilitate a reversal of fortunes today, we'll keep her beneath. #2 TOUGH LOVE TORRES ( by one of our favorite sires ) gets his working papers today, and is a half to a 4:2-0-0-1 runnah ( 52G ). 382 Tomlinson figure aids the cause. NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-12-9.
Aqueduct 79-344 ( $585 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 131-344 ( 38.1% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
