Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1A Pit Boss ( But only if his entrymate declares ) Race 5 - #6 Saint Gaudens
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Remember the Chief | 2nd -J D Factor | 3rd -Cowboy Cache |
We start out the day landing on a moniker in tribute to one of the greatest trainers of all time -- H. Allen Jerkens -- in #3 REMEMBER THE CHIEF. ( He even gave a schnook like us a few shots many moons ago when we were in the agenting business. ) Colt hails from a barn that isn't known for their prowess with firsters, but we're assuaged by the fact that there's a couple'a nicely tucked away morning moves for today's lid lifter. Included amongst those was a 2nd best of 84 fate work last month, and the two runners who had the next fastest works that day ( with a running start ) were recent diploma earners. This one is a half to a 5:1-1-2 dirt runner ( 60K ), a 4:1-2-1 dirt critter ( 51 large ), and another who won seven times over the stuff. Of the five upstairs members of the family tree we were able to dig up, an accumulated record of 5:2-1-0-1 first time out ( with the remaining 6th being Pleasant Colony ) was attained, and the more we type, the more we like ( for our buddy Mike ). #1 J D FACTOR has hit the board in his last pair, and this outfit has won all three times they've entered a sand starter ( no juice ) off breaks of 51-59 days @ 22-1 or undah ( $3, $22 & $6 ). #2 COWBOY CACHE ( uncoupled barnmate with J D ), went for nearly 4X the 80K stud fee at auction, totes a 400 Tommy for today's debut, and owns a pair of decent breezes.
| Race 2 | 1st -Independent Paul | 2nd -Debate | 3rd -M B's Munning |
#5 INDEPENDENT PAUL takes the mandatory rise in class after being snagged for a quarter last week, and we feel that was actually a shrewd claim off the last place finish, as he broke slowly from the wood that day -- his first start vs. winners. Lightly raced 5YO can move forward here. #1 DEBATE hasn't been seen since being bought for 40 big ones in October, but is one of three off a hiatus, and we like that he's claim protected today by Linda Rice -- who comes back from a suspension. #4 M B'S MUNNING is an extremely consistent sort who's fared well at the trip and strip.
| Race 3 | 1st -Meraviglioso | 2nd -Belle of the Ball | 3rd -Will Be Famous |
Third time around has been the charm for Jimmy Ferraro & #6 MERAVIGLIOSO, as they've gone back to back in their recent reunion, and accomplished such with two different running styles. New jock now in play, as Silvera got banged up at Philadelphia Park last week, and from a tiny sampling, barn is 4:2-1-0 with allowance sand stock who scored three weeks ago or less (@ 8-1 or undah ), with payoffs of $4 & $8. #3 BELLE OF THE BALL has been a part of the superfecta in every dirt deal to date, and what the hell's wrong with that ? #7 WILL BE FAMOUS returned off a bit of a freshening to finish a lively runner up in this race on the 17th of February, and her finest work has come beneath the seagulls.
| Race 4 | 1st -Daddy Knows | 2nd -Funkenstein | 3rd -Blake B. |
#6 DADDY KNOWS was a feel good story for a while there, having won three straight fast track starts beneath young miss Katie over a 4 1/2 month stretch, but has since hit the skids a bit, failing to make the exacta in his last quintet ( finishing last in two of 'em, while burning a great deal of bread ). Gelding is entered for his lowest tag yet, while being reunited with the aforementioned pilot. One more chance. #5 FUNKENSTEIN is a nibbler by rote ( 26:3-9-2 ), but is another at an all time low, but overcame some trouble to complete the triple the only time he was in a 2nd off the bench try, and should be left in the hopper. #1 BLAKE B. has been a popular item at the claim box of late, and could perk up off the recent flop w/ today's blinker removal. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1A PIT BOSS ( but only if his entrymate declares ).
| Race 5 | 1st -That's Money | 2nd -Liberty Central | 3rd -Kaz Creed |
#4 THAT'S MONEY was quite professional when scoring right outta the box on 2/17 ( despite going seven wide in an eight horse allotment ), but what impressed us the most is that he did it on a wet track, for which he is substantially poorer bred for, than a glib surface. That -- plus a decent Tommy for the trip -- tells us there's ample room for improvement, and should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there. #7 LIBERTY CENTRAL appears to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart, based on the way he's done nothing but improve over time, with all starts coming over this oval -- and beneath today's helmsman. #1 KAZ CREED hasn't faced the starter since going coast to coast like butter and toast in procuring the sheepskin at Grantville during the holidays, and now gets the miracle drug for the first time. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 SAINT GAUDENS doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 9/5 ? NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Dr. Kraft | 2nd -Prince of Truth | 3rd -Paschal Moon |
We're not really feeling the mojo here, so exercise some caution. #7 DR. KRAFT is a notorious nibblah ( 12:1-3-5-1 on a track labeled FST ), but was a dead game runner up at 32-1 ( by only a neck ) the one time he was in a second off the bench deal, and has eye cups added this afternoon. That last part is of some relevance, as the only time blinkers were slapped on, a 19.2% improvement in the Beyer department was achieved. Now we're not saying that will be replicated here, but anything even close to that, wellll.... #2 PRINCE OF TRUTH came back after a bit of a break to pick up 12% of the pot on the 29th of Feb., and must be included. #1 PASCHAL MOON lost by less than a length ( at 13-1 ) directly behind a next out winner the sole time he was first to load, and we like the slight improvement shown in his primary tango with victors.
| Race 7 | 1st -Bon Adieu | 2nd -Bustin Bay | 3rd -Security Code |
Featured race of the day is upon us, and it's a highly competitive one. #6 BON ADIEU gets the acid test today, but is in the best form of her life ( 6:4-2-0 ), owns oodles of early zip, and from a trainer stat point of view, Rudy has won with all three of his Ozone Park dirt entrants who got the lion's share 17-40 days in the rear ( no Lasix ), and said winnahs paid $10, $3 & $6. #4 BUSTIN BAY went coast to coast like butter and toast vs. open foes for Linda...errr....Adam rice last out, and historically is 2 fer 2 in 3rd off the bench placements; nice declining mark of 41:12-8-6 adds to the allure. #1 SECURITY CODE is just about as consistent as they come ( 19:5-5-5-3 ) and is as good as an "unders" candidate as you'll find. NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Hagrid's Flame | 2nd -Vin Santo | 3rd -Big Ego |
#12 HAGRID'S FLAME gets his working papers in today's finale, and aside from some decent morning moves, is a half to one runner who won first time out, and another who placed when doing the same, while winning her followup ( both right here ). Of the five upstairs members of the family tree we were able to dig up, three were photogenic in their bows, and fella lands in a softish spot. #10 VIN SANTO has hit the board in all three dirt tries, and who are we to rock that boat ? #1 BIG EGO immolated some bread in the lid lifter, but both comebackers from that heat improved by 22 pts. next out ( one of 'em winning ), and jockey/trainer combo have done spectacularly together.
Aqueduct 80-352 ( $585 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-15 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win % 133-352 ( 37.8% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
