Just a pair of winners, a $203 Exacta Box, and a successful Beatable Favorite ( as we've locked in for that category this meet ), as we begin a truncated Closing Week here.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -No Surrender | 2nd -Andy Cant | 3rd -Uncle Eddie |
#6 NO SURRENDER has completed the exacta in his last three one turn engagements, and although we're not quite sure what gets this one over the hump today ( other than the improvement in the saddle ), but we can do a lot worse. #3 ANDY CANT has posted decent adjusted figaros in both "second off the shelf" engagements, and Mott runs up the flag on this $70,000 purchase. #2 UNCLE EDDIE has some "so so" running lines, and totes the lightest impost of his career.
| Race 2 | 1st -Value Area | 2nd -Antenna | 3rd -Low Society |
#5 VALUE AREA is a bit of a nibbler, but has yet to finish off the board, won her only start with the wonder drug, and is a "Best last race Beyer" play, in that the figure garnered last month supersedes anything that anyone in the race has ever put up. Logical favorite. #2 ANTENNA returned off a bit of a freshening to finish a daylight clear runner up directly in front of a next out victor, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. Despite being out of jail, this one is confidently moved up the ladder today, and should be right in the thick of things. #6 LOW SOCIETY has yet to finish oustside of the superfecta and is now in receipt of "The Big L".
| Race 3 | 1st -Perpetual Praise | 2nd -Strange Fruit | 3rd -Synoymous |
#2 PERPETUAL PRAISE played the fade in his start off a hibernation, but has given decent accounts of herself in the quartet pf outings prior to that ( 4:2-0-1-1 ), and is now reunited with her favorite pilot. Substantial drop in store, so tread lightly with one who's had two voided claims in her last four heats. #5 STRANGE FRUIT is 6:2-1-1 at today's distance of ground, and that stands out favorably against her 8:0-1-2 mark otherwise; best efforts have come when having a bug legged up. #4 SYNONYMOUS outran her odds in a big way when completing the tri at 44-1, and still may be overlooked parimutually. NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish ! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Zhen Lou | 2nd -Dancing Liana | 3rd -Sonia's Flame |
#5 ZHEN LOU comes in today off the first two ITM finishes of her career, and slides in a few slots off the career best figaro. Logical 1-2-3 contendress. #6 DANCING LIANA gave a nice account of herself when picking up 20% of the pot at first asking, and can improve off of that with a cleaner onset. #1 SONIA'S FLAME was eased in the most recent, but possibly bled that day, as Lasix is now a part of the equation. South American journeyman takes over today, and gal takes the biggest drop in the land while sliding into the wood. NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO TWO SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 4 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTFULLY.
| Race 5 | 1st -Whistler's Style | 2nd -Sweet Mystery | 3rd -Ocean Gateway |
#7 WHISTLER'S STYLE is aggressively moved up the ladder after a win/claim 33 days in the rear, and aside from that, we dig this one's "declining" mark of 35:-7-4-3. Familiar jock back aboard, and mare has gone two of four beneath the seagulls. #2 SWEET MYSTERY is a bit of a nibblah, but is 2:1-1-0 when going into the starting apparatus first, and could work out a nice ground saving trip. #6 OCEAN GATEWAY won by a pole the only time she was in a "true" 2nd off the bench jammie, and it happened to come right here, at today's dist. of ground. Hat trick well within reach. NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1A WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Bingood to Knowya | 2nd -Hey Toby | 3rd -Go Grad |
#6 BINGOOD TO KNOWYA returned off a year and a month disappearance to split the field in his return, and did it despite gettin' smacked around a bit that afternoon. Chance for a big move forward here, with some improvement in the irons, a cleaner trek, and being in a second off the L/O spot. #7 HEY TOBY was the only horse left in the barn for owner/breeder/trainer Jim Hooper ( known for conditioning the extremely popular New York Bred, Inherit the Gold ), when he was claimed by Jeremiah Englehart during the Saratoga stand after a game 3rd place finish @ 14-1. While that got some local tongues wagging in the days afterwards, gelding was sent to the shelves after a couple of September breezes six months later. There are some nice works on the docket, and is an obvious factor if sound & fully cranked up. #1 GO GRAD rounds out the top three.
| Race 7 | 1st -Reigning Chick | 2nd -Saratoga Kisses | 3rd -Chasing Daylight |
#4 REIGNING CHICK has put forth her finest performances over today's oval ( 16:4-3-3, compared to being 10:1-0-0 in other affairs ), and comes out of a race where three returnees went 3:1-0-1 in their followup heats. We're willing to be somewhat forgiving of the last, as she's historically better over a glib surface, and is on a sweet 8:3-0-1 skein when coming in off an OTB finish. #5 SARATOGA KISSES has been in absentia for 2 1/2 months, but comes out of race where three of five who finished in front of her returned victorious. #6 CHASING DAYLIGHT has been out of form of late, but is a win machine, and positively adores The Big A.
| Race 8 | 1st -Mount Travers | 2nd -My Friends Beer | 3rd -Winning Drive |
#4 MOUNT TRAVERS lost by just a half'a length at this level back on the 9th, and yeah, yeah, we know he's oh-fer-18 in Ozone Park, but man, we had a hell of a time landing on someone else here. #3 MY FRIENDS BEER has had a reversal of fortune over the last pair, and we see little reason another solid try can't be in the works. #2 WINNING DRIVE drops below the level claimed from two starts back, and could pick up a slice in this third start off a layoff. NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. NOTE: AS OF 1:55 P.M., DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct 82-360 ( $600.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 133-360 ( 36.4% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
