Gross day yesterday with a pair of chalky winners, two Triple Boxes of $257 & $25, and three Rolling Pick Threes of $101, $57 & $27.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Lost in Rome | 2nd -Lord Captain | 3rd -Saffa's Day |
#5 LOST IN ROME was a dead game winner in this race 39 days in the rear, and historically, this one has completed the exacta in all three "true" 2nd off the layoff engagements. Fella has done quite well in this zip code, and rates a slight edge in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #6 LORD CAPTAIN has done nothing to get the pulse racing since returning off an elongated absence, but lightly raced five year old has been victorious the last three times he's been available for purchase, and jock sticks around for today's 3rd start off the pine. #3 SAFFA'S DAY has the sort of declining mark that we've grown to love ( 12:4-3-2 at today's distance of ground ), and is 3 of 7 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump on the main. Note the crisp 3:2-0-1 record in 3rd off the L/O spots; watch out. NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 4 & WHOEVER'S LEFT WILL BE OUR REMAINING SELECTIONS.
| Race 2 | 1st -Mystic Night | 2nd -Trafalgar | 3rd -Just Call Ray |
#1 MYSTIC NIGHT was eased in the most recent, but drops in class for today's first 2X to 1X attempt, and we see that his best efforts have come in Ozone Park ( 8:3-0-2, compared to being 16:1-4-1 otherwise ). Pay attention to the scratch board, however, as we believe it's mandated that a horse such as this is required to work out for the state vet after being pulled up, and as of yet, is not showing one. #5 TRAFALGAR owns some back class and has never seen these depths, but may be coming late. #2 JUST CALL RAY as good as any for the show dough in another wide open event. NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4
| Race 3 | 1st -Krystalheir | 2nd -Malu | 3rd -Dream On Cara |
#7 KRYSTALHEIR takes the biggest drop in the game for a barn that's having an uncharacteristic decent meeting, and this one is supported by a tidy but tight DRF Formulator stat, as 3% Coffey perks up with her maiden claiming dirt stock @ 16-1 or less ( two of three, $11 & $8 ).#6 MALU has gone 40-54-56-60 in her quartet of dirt outings thus far, and who knows where the ceiling is for a runner continuing her "race a month" schedule. #5 DREAM ON CARA put forth an honest showing the last time she was in a 3rd off the bench jamboree, and has the eye cups removed for today's 1st start w/ Gus.
| Race 4 | 1st -What's Up Bro | 2nd -Chileno | 3rd -Mandatory |
#2 WHAT'S UP BRO positively adores it here ( 9:4-1-3 ) and has an unblemished three fer three mark at this tricky distance. Hard to knock. #4 CHILENO hasn't been seen since Toga Time, but we like that there's no scary drop, and one of the barn's go-to riders hops on. Take a gander during the warmup. #6 MANDATORY shoots for the hat trick today, and it's very feasible, given the speed figures garnered over those last two wins.
| Race 5 | 1st -Blue Eyed Warrior | 2nd -Dame Catherine | 3rd -Awesome Glo |
#9 BLUE EYED WARRIOR failed to finish when being tossed in to the deep end of the pool after a claim out of a winning effort vs. mere $12,500 foes, but possibly bled that day, as Lasix is now a part of the makeup. ( We emphasize the "possibly", because these days, does one really need an excuse to run with the wonder drug ? ). It's encouraging to see the jock stick around for today's first try from an outside slot, and will make her a meek selection in a head scratcher. #8 DAME CATHERINE has shown vast improvement over her last troika, and seems properly spotted in her first tangle with winners. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the last handful of #6 AWESOME GLO, as this miss has been on an upswing over that time, and should be forwardly placed early.
| Race 6 | 1st -Donegal Surges | 2nd -Ten Cent Town | 3rd -Beach Boy Al |
#6 DONEGAL SURGES exited a key race to win in going away fashion in his 2nd off the respite try, and a repeat is quite attainable, given today's outermost placement, and the career best fig on display. #5 TEN CENT TOWN has shown "miraculous" improvement since being claimed by Richard Dutrow in January, as her 2 best #'s were posted ( both right here ). Four returnees from that start have rung up a cumulative 4:2-0-2 ledger since, with three of 'em showing improvement in the BSF area. #4 BEACH BOY AL is on a 10:4-1-0-2 skein over the last year and a half, anc can land a share.
| Race 7 | 1st -Seeking Unity | 2nd -Apollo Rising | 3rd -What a Blast |
#6 SEEKING UNITY faded a bit in the most recent, but was a convincing victor when making that second left just prior, and four comebackers from that heat have posted a decent 4:1-2-0 mark since, with an avg. speed figure improvement of 4.5 pts. per. Slight edge. #7 APOLLO RISING has been much improved since the freshening ( 4:2-1-1 ), with the placings happening when last to get loaded. #4 WHAT A BLAST went coast to cost like butter and toast vs. conditional platers a baker's dozen days ago, and is 3:1-0-0-1 in two turn affairs.
| Race 8 | 1st -Chalky Cat | 2nd -Pineapple Man | 3rd -G Munning |
#7 CHALKY CAT returned off a little bit of a break to miss the lion's share by just a noggin when in the land of winners for the first time, and ended up in a new barn afterwards, after that career topping numbah. Gelding was photogenic in his sole soiree' at today's distance of ground, and the one who finished directly in front of him that day, was a winnah once more, basically replicating the figure earned. #8 PINEAPPLE MAN returned off a half'a calendar hibernation to barely best the chase ambulance last month, and the white flag is promptly run up by Maker. Incorporating, but with oodles of trepidation. #2B G MUNNING finished in the back half of the pack last out, but the four from that event who raced again, went 4:2-1-0, and today's pilot guided this one to a nice placing in their lone pairing.
Aqueduct 84-368 ( $608.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 137-368 ( 37.2% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
