Have a wonderful Easter, everyone !!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): ( Odds not posted as of 9:19 P.M. Wednesday )
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Gentleman Joe | 2nd -Joking Way | 3rd -Holdtheflight |
#7 GENTLEMAN JOE is but three parts of a length from shooting for the grand salami today, and historically, owns a 2:1-1-0 ledger in second off the shelf engagements. Sensible selection in today's opener. #5 JOKING WAY is a bit of an in and outer, but the adjusted figaro from his penultimate outing was solid enough, & it's encouraging to see Rivera stick around. #8 HOLDTHEFLIGHT got up in time to best 20K platers 40 days in the rear, and the one who finished directly behind him came back a winner when next in action. Gelding has completed the triple in 3 of 4 third off the layoff tries, and should be in the thick of things late.
| Race 2 | 1st -Aggregation | 2nd -American Law | 3rd -Wake Surf |
#2 AGGREGATION has been a bit of a financial disappointment thus far, as fragile 270K five year old has yet to earn back that amount, but is one of three off a respite, and in a wild anomaly, will load first for the 9th time in 11 career outings ( 8:3-2-1-1 ). #5 AMERICAN LAW has won his last two 1X deals, and six returnees from the last came back to amass a cumulative 6:2-0-1-2 boxscore ( from five sui generis races ), with an avg. Beyer improvement of 3.3 pts. per. Note that his finest efforts have come beneath the seagulls ( 12:3-6-0 compared to being 9:0-3-5 otherwise ). #3 WAKE SURF rounds out the top three.
| Race 3 | 1st -I'm Buzzy | 2nd -Warrior's Ransom | 3rd -Killy Start |
#4 I'M BUZZY has been on the warpath since January 11th, as this miss aims to get one for the thumb today, and two of those tallies came in her lone pairings with today's bug. Hard to knock, especially when factoring in the 7 of 15 local mark. #2 WARRIORS RANSOM is an extremely consistent gal, as the recent 14:3-4-4-3 streak belies, but despite that, may still be overlooked here. #5 KILLY START hasn't been seen since the snag more than 2 1/2 months ago, but can grab a slice vs. these.
| Race 4 | 1st -Citizen Mack | 2nd -Model S | 3rd -The Elusive Drwong |
Wide open deal here, so tread lightly. #8 CITIZEN MACK returned off a bit of a freshening to pick up 20% of the pot out at Grantville a half'a month in the past, and rates the meekest of selections off of that. #5 MODEL S displayed improved speed when going over the sandy stuff for the 1st time, and although he played the fade that afternoon, could fare better today if able to change leads properly. #2 THE ELUSIVE DRWONG hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but posted a pair of decent adjusted figaros back then, and now finds himself at his lowest level to date. NOTE: AS OF 10:57, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-8-2.
| Race 5 | 1st -Big Engine | 2nd -Bourbon's Hope | 3rd -Printrack |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 BIG ENGINE is on a sweet 6:3-2-0-1 streak since the end of November, but despite that, this nine yr. old will ridiculously have to find another circuit come 2025. That being said, he has the sort of "declining" mark at Aqueduct that we've grown to love through the years, as the 27:9-5-2 record tells us that he has a schnoz for the line. No worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #7 BOURBON'S HOPE is a notorious nibblah, and could spice things up a tad. #2B PRINTRACK is fleet afoot ( Ahoof ? ), and apart from owning a 15:6-6-0 record at today's dist. of ground, enters this deal on an 8:5-3-0 run. NOTE: AS OF 11:01, DUE TO AN ODDS DIFFERENTIAL, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-6-2B.
| Race 6 | 1st -Rungius | 2nd -Iron Works | 3rd -Six Percent |
#1 RUNGIUS is 6:4-1-1 in his last sextet over a glib surface, two of three at today's trip, and today's jock is 6:3-1-1 with Levine at 4-1 or less. Threat to go all the way once again if able to set some easy splits. #10 IRON WORKS was positively ghastly when overmatched in the Stymie, but although winless over the last two years, is a steady check earner, and could rebound with the re-addition of the wonder drug. #4 SIX PERCENT owns a 3:1-0-0-1 mark in 3rd off the shelf dirt jammies, and is as god as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 3:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Mystic Seaport | 2nd -Gringotts | 3rd -Suspended Campaign |
#7 MYSTIC SEAPORT does nothing but win, win, win, as this 4YO filly has done just that -- on turf or dirt, wet track or dry. Gal is on a 12:7-0-2 run in one turn jammies, and that includes being 2:1-1-0 in Ozone Park. Jockey/Trainer combo have fared better together than apart, and the race goes through her. #9 GRINGOTTS has won in just one of her last 32 afternoon treks to the frontside, but we see that this one popped out of the gate first last time out, and while that may not seem overly relevant, she's only done that two other times in he 54 race career -- one followup ended up with a $15 win, and they other resulted with a 20-1 showing two spots behind a next out winner. Hmmmmm.... #3 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN has done fine work right here, and closed out the tri @ a whopping 51-1 last out. NOTE: AS OF 11:05, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-7-2.
| Race 8 | 1st -Kinetic Sky | 2nd -Kuchar | 3rd -Olympic Dreams |
Featured race of the day is upon us, and it's a competitive rendition of the Excelsior, with no first draft eliminations. #4 KINETIC SKY has been "miraculous" since being claimed by Dutrow 11 months back, as after beginning his career on a 4 for 20 streak, has gone three of seven since, with all three occurring over this oval. Six year old "horse" ( You hide under the shavings when you see that vet stroll down the shedrow, buddy ! ) has enough versatility to be up on the pace or come from a few lengths back, and is logical off the recent tally. #3 KUCHAR digs this oval, and lost by less than a pair when closing out the exacta the one time he was in a 3rd off the bench situation. #6 OLYMPIC DREAMS made every call a winning one in an optional deal right here a bit over a week ago, and that brought this grey gelding's local ledger up to 4 for 7. Five less pounds are in the saddle this afternoon, and that's something we always dig.
| Race 9 | 1st -Night Effect | 2nd -Margin of Air | 3rd -Lookin at Roses |
#12 NIGHT EFFECT bested but one in a tougher placement back on the 9th, but did some nice work in the troika just before that, and may be overlooked a tad in being led over by a low percentage conditioner. Price play. #8 MARGIN OF AIR has "amazingly" posted his three best Beyers in his first three starts for Jamie Ness ( "It's another Festivus, MIRACLE !!" ), and we'd be silly to exclude. #10 LOOKIN AT ROSES closes out our race, day, week, month and meet here at Aqueduct for Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Bets & Capital OTB. We thank y'all for your continued support, and look forward to seeing you for Opening Day of the Spring Meet on Thursday !!
Aqueduct 84-368 ( $608.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 137-368 ( 37.2% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-23 (All Final):3990-19827 ($33,696.70)
Beatable Favorites : 454-1690( 26.9% )Favorite's Win %: 7469-19930( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.9% against a 16.8% takeout.
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4075-20395 ( $34,515.90 )Beatable Favorites : 464-1736( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7612-20517( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.4% against a 16.7% takeout
