Happy Opening Day !!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Dreams She Dreams | 2nd -Ana's Gun | 3rd -Shirl's Delight |
#2 DREAMS SHE DREAMS was ambitiously spotted in an allowance race right out of the box, and after getting smacked around a little at the onset, played the fade. Interesting that Castellano takes the ride today, so perhaps she wasn't really cranked up first time out. Recognize the bullet gate move before that debut. #4 ANA'S GUN hasn't been seen in a couple of St. Valentine's days, but was doing good work way back when, and now gets the wonder drug for the first time. We'd be silly to dismiss, given the connections. #5 SHIRL'S DELIGHT, was a daylight clear runner up in a similar spot in the comebacker, and posted a career best effort the only time she was in a second off the layoff spot. Logical contendress.
| Race 2 | 1st -Starry Midnight | 2nd -My First Love | 3rd -Solib |
#6 STARRY MIDNIGHT takes the mandatory hike in class after the claim by Jimmy Ferraro last week, and barn's has had excellent success over the recent years with purchases, and being handed horses. Gal found the line first the only time she broke from an outside placement, and is in a third off the layoff situation for the first time. New jock has had excellent success with this outfit, and we wouldn't be surprised to see another solid effort. #3 MY FIRST LOVE ( uncoupled entry mate with the above ), has been a bit out of form over her last three starts, but despite us considering this a hike in class today, it actually came up pretty soft because of the horse colony this time of year. Mare totes the lightest impost of her career, as today's apprentice has been doing good things of late. Don't leave out. #5 SOLIB, hasn't been seen in more than two and a half months, and returns at exactly the same level from the race claimed -- and win -- back in January. Sensible edition.
| Race 3 | 1st -Harvard | 2nd -Ski Country | 3rd -Midnight Trouble |
#2 HARVARD returned off an elongated absent to finish in the back half of the pack in late February, and is now made available for purchase for the first time. Gelding closed out the exacta in his only start at the trip, and lightly raced 6 year old rates the meekest of selections in a heat that's hard to hug. #6 SKI COUNTRY hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is protected against the claim after having been bought for half a C note way back when, and posted a solid runner-up finish the last time he went one turn, and that race came from an outside-ish type slot. #5 MIDNIGHT TROUBLE, goes two turns to one today, and has done okay at today's distance of ground. As good as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 12:23, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 4 | 1st -Rice entry | 2nd -Freeze Pop | 3rd -Screw Loose |
Both the #1 GUN MAESTRO ( whose sole win has come at today's distance of ground ), and the #1A SCREAMING UNCLE ( one whose lone tally came in Ozone Park ) comprise decent factions of the coupled entry, with the latter finding himself at his lowest level to date. #3 FREEZE POP has been in absentia since being claimed at the Pee Patch last June. 5-year old is nearly halved in price for today's comebacker, but has done well off the bench, and jockey/trainer combo do better together than apart. #2 SCREW LOOSE, has had a couple of nuts loosened since last in action, and just made perk up today. It would most definitely get our attention. NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-1A-6.
| Race 5 | 1st -Teresa | 2nd -Mangia | 3rd -Dolce Veloce |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 TERESA closed out the exacta in a similar placement on the 21st of March, and while a regression is always possible in a second time Lasix/second time blinkers scenario, she lands in a fairly soft spot and could get the job done today. #6 MANGIA ate some bread last time out, but posted some decent Figaro's in the quartet just prior to that, and deserves a chance to make amends going from an apprentice to a journeyman. #1 DOLCE VELOCE takes the biggest drop in the game today, and lost by less than a length the only time she had a "For sale" sticker attached to her butt. Deserving favorite, and should be no worse than third for those who like to grind out a show profit. NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Joey The Fish | 2nd -Holiday Jazz | 3rd -Cinderella's Cause |
#3 JOEY THE FISH hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in her last pair, but the 3 for 14 record at the Big A stands out in comparison to the oh for seven Mark at other venues. There's a tidy but tight DRF Formulator stat in play here, as 7% Randi is two for five w/ locally based mid level dirt stock who finished off the board less than 50 days ago at 17 to 1 or less. The winners came back $29 & $27, and this miss may be overlooked a bit. #1 HOLIDAY JAZZ is another one with some poor recent form, but is also backed by a nice trainer statistic which has this outfit having one half of their eight starts with Aqueduct based runners at this level, & ridden by today's jockey, off breaks of less than 26 days at 13-1 or less. There's a healthy return on investment in that regards, and she may sit a decent trip today. #8 CINDERELLA'S CAUSE has been kept in jail since the purchase at the end of February, and makes all kinds of sense having finished third that day.
| Race 7 | 1st -Disarmed | 2nd -Listen to Your Heart | 3rd -Stolen Base |
After beginning his career in an 0 for 9 manner, #1 DISARMED has gone on a 6 for 10 run since then, including three wire jobs in his last four starts. Colt digs the trip and strip, and Rudy Rod is a tight three for four with locally based optional sand stock who won 14 to 39 days ago, ridden by Franco. The winners came back $4, $3, and $8, and they'll have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #2 LISTEN TO YOUR HEART has done some fine work since being transferred over to the Handal barn, as the three for eight mark belies. Gelding is at a more palatable level this afternoon after getting waffled in the Tom Fool, and we can't fault those taking a favorable view. #4 STOLEN BASE found the line first the last time he said his tootsies on a fast track, and posted a career best number in doing such. May be overlooked a tad.
| Race 8 | 1st -Irish Tenor | 2nd -Grand Opening | 3rd -Price Is Truth |
You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #7 IRISH TENOR, as this chestnut chap has done nothing but improve over time. Gelding is in a second time blinker scenario today, and showed improved speed last time out. Looking good. #4 GRAND OPENING is doing just that today, as this Laurel invader begins his working life in the Big Apple. The works haven't done much to get the heart pumping, but the 369 Tomlinson figure for today's distance is honest enough. Should be a decent offering. #1 PRICE IS TRUTH hasn't been seen since the fall, but gets the miracle drug for the first time, and has recently lost his procreating abilities. We always find it encouraging when the pre layoff pilot returns, as it tells us that nothing untoward happened that day. NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
