Just one chalky winner on an Opening Day full of the stuff yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #4 Masterwork
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -True Connection | 2nd -First Trumpet | 3rd -Causeway |
#4 TRUE CONNECTION improved by about 10.2% in the Beyyer speed figure department from his first start to the follow-up, and right off the bat we feel this one is eligible to do even better should the track come up fast today. Note that he was decently clear of those who finished directly behind him in both races, and given his running style, should improve in today's first attempt going two turns. #2 FIRST TRUMPET has hit the board and four of his last eight starts, and that includes a 16-1 showing the only time he made a second left. Colt is in a second time Lasix scenario today, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman. May be overlooked given the connections, but could surprise with a clean trip. #1 CAUSEWAY was justifiably moved up to third place when forced to take up a little bit down in Oldsmar, and well bred runner is now shipped up north for the bigger purse in a fairly easy allotment. Would be no shock.
| Race 2 | 1st -Lord Captain | 2nd -I Am the LAw | 3rd -Aztec |
#2 LORD CAPTAIN hasn't shown diddly poo in his last two outings, but is in a third of the layoff start for the first time of his life today, and is once again made available for purchase. That last part is highly relevant, as the last three times this one has been up for grabs, he's won in every instance! The payouts for those were $16, and $4 x $2. He has found the line first in one of two tries when loading first, and it's encouraging to see the jock stick around after the last disappointment. #4 I AM THE LAW goes two turns to one today, and the last three times he's attempted that, two wins and a third place finish was the end result. Gelding has fared quite well here, and there's another one who has done well when having a for sale sticker attached to his butt, as the recent 4:1-1-2 record in that department belies. Don't dismiss. #3 AZTEC only beat a couple home when returning off a brief freshening, but found the line first the only time he was in a second layoff situation going one turn. Wouldn't be surprised to see an improved effort.
| Race 3 | 1st -Business Model | 2nd -Critical Threat | 3rd -Dots Dollar |
These three and no more for our rolling action. #3 BUSINESS MODEL hasn't been seen since having a claim voided at the end of January, and is now entered for $15,000 less, s right off the bat, caveat emptor. The good news though, is that this barn had a five win day on Saturday, and 6-year-old is an unblemished two for two when returning off an absence, w/ the winners paying $21 and $5. Pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we like to see. #6 CRITICAL THREAT has been a popular item at the claim box for a couple of years now, as he has had to leave a forwarding address in his last four starts when up for grabs, & five of six on the whole. We like this one's ability to send or rate us a bit, and despite being out of jail is confidently moved up the ladder today. #5 DOTS DOLLAR on the other hand, has dropped in class after being claimed in early February. Chestnut chap positively adores it here with that four for nine record steering right at your grill, and was photogenic in ALL three outings off of legit brakes on a glib surface. Watch out.
| Race 4 | 1st -Wanna Winna | 2nd -Bobby the Tank | 3rd -Endowed |
#2 WANNA WINNA gave an honest account of himself when facing winners for the first time, which is never an easy thing for a maiden breaker to do. Gets a tremendous upgrade in the training department today, and some improvement in the saddle as well. Best work has come at today's distance of ground, and should be in the thick of things late. #1 BOBBY THE TANK has only beaten home the chase ambulance and his last pair, but there's no scary drop off the most recent, and 4-year-old lost by just a half a length the only time he was first to go into the starting apparatus. We see that the seven comebackers from the last amassed a cumulative mark of 7:1-2-0 from 5 sui generis races, and we think a rebound may be in place today. #6 ENDOWED is a lightly raised 6-year-old who hasn't been seen since the snag last summer at Saratoga. The good news though, is that he's one of two off the shelf, and has also won one of three times when breaking from the outside two slots. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 MASTERWORK
| Race 5 | 1st -Gun Maestro | 2nd -Jungrau | 3rd -Atlanta's Acuna |
#1 GUN MAESTRO ( cross entered yesterday ) has been a bit of a disappointment over his last triad, but despite being windless over this oval, stretches out to his longest one turn race to date, and maybe able to relax a little bit more early on. Meekest of selections in a race with but one first draft elimination. #3 JUNGFRAU has been kept in prison since switching trainers at the end of FEB, and is promptly dropped in class while losing the eye cups as well. Take a long look in the paddock, as this one will have to win just for the connections to break even should another claim ensue. #4 ATLANTA'S ACUNA finds himself at his lowest level to date, but completed the triple at 8-1 in his only second off the layoff attempt and now totes the lightest impost of his career.
| Race 6 | 1st -Honest Banker | 2nd -Shoopthereitis | 3rd -Maggie T |
#5 HONEST BANKER is a bit of a fragile sort, having had two layoffs within her first four races thus far, but has some nice early dash, and is now entered at depths yet seen. Gal exits a super key race, as the six returnees from that last affair have come back to ring up four wins and two fourth place finishes from just five different races. The grouping averaged a BSF improvement of 10.5 points per runner, and this one should be smack dab in the mix in deep stretch. #3 SHOOPTHEREITIS is another sliding down in class today, and loses the blinks while getting a big upgrade in the irons. Filly has been a part of the superfecta in her last nine events, and we can't fault those taking a favorable view. #6 MAGGIE T was a dead game and well clear runner up in a near identical spot 3 weeks ago, so why would we dismiss today?
| Race 7 | 1st -Marour | 2nd -Factually Correct | 3rd -Emerald Forest |
What's not to like about the #6 MAROUR ? 5-year-old is a win machine, having won half of his 18 afternoon treks to the front side, and has tons of early speed to boot. Factoring in his local jock coming in for the mount, an ideal draw, and an equally sharp record at today's distance of ground, we happen to feel the race goes through him. #5 FACTUALLY CORRECT has been quite photogenic of late, having tallied a win in three of his last five races, while also owning a solid ledger in Ozone Park. Today's replacement rider has done okay aboard him, and we wouldn't be shocked to see another solid effort. #1 EMERALD FOREST was claimed for half a C-note last out, and as he's historically about 5% better on a fast track than one with moisture in it, we wouldn't think another strong result would be out of the realm of possibility.
| Race 8 | 1st -Borletti ( Ire ) | 2nd -Magnificent Mile | 3rd -Notah |
#4 BORLETTI (IRE) has done some decent work on the main since arriving in the States, as he's a nose shy of being three for four when going over the brown stuff. Brown gelding goes an extra panel today after losing by just a honker at this level on the 1st of March, and four of five comebackers from that deal hit the board when next in action. #1 MAGNIFICENT MILE takes the mandatory hike in class after being bought for a quarter on March 29th, and may able to show some improvement from that day if able to get a cleaner trip. #6 NOTAH has been in the money over his last troika, and we don't see any reason to leave out.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 1-9 ( $2.90 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 4-8 ( 50% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
