4/6 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Happy Wood Day !!

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

Good morning everybody! We start out the afternoon with a fairly competitive event, & will give a slight nod to the #7 TWO TONS OF FUN, in an opener with but one first draft elimination. This colt didn't do much to get the pulse racing right out of the box, but is better bred for a fast track then one with moisture in it, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, barn clicks at a 3 for 6 rate with second time starters at this level on the dirt, at 31-1 or less ( receiving the wonder drug ). The winners in that sampling came back $8, $9, and $20, and there's a sub category of two for three with those off layoffs of 50 days or less. #8 SUPREMACY CLAUSE is a January foal who draws well for the debut, and has some decent pedigree. Given the connections, we don't need much of an excuse to include. #3 ALEAH ALEAH bested only the chase ambulance when returning off an absence, but catches a fast track for just the second time, and gets the Big L for the first time. Could jazz things up a bit underneath.

#1 LITTLE LUCA hasn't been seen since a voided claim a little bit more than 2 months ago, but hit the board in a span of four truncated starts before the absence, and we are encouraged to see that this fella is protected against the claim today. Recognize that the lone start when first to load yielded and easy win at odds on, but is this one has had two claims voided in his last troika, it would behoove you to take a gander in the paddock. #5 SHARPAZ outran his odds quite nicely when completing the triple of 36 to 1 in his first start off the snag, and the winner from that day got his photo taken once again when next in action. Looks good. #7 KAZMIKE hasn't faced the starter in a couple of Independence Days, but lands in a decent spot for the comebacker, and could forget to stop if able to break out onto an easy lead early on.

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 CANDY TYCOON was kept in jail after being snagged for a double sawbuck two months back, and returned off the poor effort from that day to pick up 12% of the pot at the same level. 7-year-old is now dropped 20% in class, while retaining the jockey from that afternoon. Gelding goes two turns to one, and from four starts has a win a second and a third in that regards. #2 BOURBON CALLING finds himself at his lowest level to date, but he's done decent work here and should be no worse than third for those who like to grind out of show profit. #8 DIGITAL has been away since late January, but owns a decent record off of a  break in the action, and is another finding himself at depths yet unseen.  NOTE: AS OF 9:59, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-8.

This has always been one of our favorite types of races throughout the years - a seven furlong Graded Stakes on the dirt, and in this year's abbreviated rendition of the Carter handicap, we have no qualms and giving a nod to the #3 POST TIME. Grey fella has a near unblemished 7 for 8 mark, and that includes a win the only time he was in a third of the layoff spot. He's really been a different animal since coming back to the races this year, and sheds 2 lbs off of win, which is something we always like to see. #5 PETULANTE has yet to miss the board, and who are we to rock that boat? 5 year old is two for two in second off the layoff events, and has done well with an outside placement. Get's a tiny weight break from the above, and we wouldn't be surprised to see him try to steal it on the front end today. #2 WHITTINGTON PARK  is 4 for 7 beneath the seagulls, and comes in today off of a career best effort.  NOTE: AS OF 10:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#3 MISS LAU has been somewhat of a disappointment thus far, and after three uninspiring performances, has eye cups affixed for the first time. That last part is highly relevant, as Mott is a saucy four for five when doing such with sand sprinters on this circuit at 20 to 1 or less ( 51-87 days ). #6 MY KIND OF MISCHIEF has been in absentia since the fall, but speedy sort gets Lasix administered for the first time, and we wouldn't be shocked to see an improved performance. #9 FIVE TO TWO has finished in the money in each and every call to the post, and makes all kinds of sense.  NOTE: AS OF 5:11 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

#3 ROYAL POPPY is an extremely consistent sort who's partaken in the superfecta in 11 of his last dozen forays. Horse for the course has a 9:3-4-1 mark right here, and should be smack dab in the thick of things once again. #4 HOT FUDGE aims to complete the six pack today, as this versatile 5-year-old has won on two different courses, on a fast track and on a wet track. Toss in the perfect three for three record at today's tricky distance, and you have the makings of a deserving favorite. #2 AIN'T BROKE is another win machine of late, as she's scored in four of her last five events dating back to September. Uncoupled barnmate w/the above deserves your respect in this year's Distaff.  NOTE: AS OF 10:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

We really don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly. #7 BENDOOG immolated some baccala in the North American debut around Turkey Time, but aside from the third place finished that day, found the line first directly in front of a next out winner in his only start off the bench. Bay boy is another Mott runner now getting the hood this afternoon, but will still take some pounding at the windows. Most timid of choices. #6 VESPUCCI lost by a honker in his first start after a lengthy hibernation, and while a bounce is always possible off of something like that, we see no reason to leave out. #8 ST JAMES went from zero to hero to the tune of $40 when making his first start for a new clan on March 15th, and could do with a little bit of pace ahead of him this afternoon.  NOTE: AS OF 10:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Another race where our listed threesome should suffice. #5 LIFE TALK has blinkers added after burning some bread up in Oldsmar nearly two months ago, and jockey/trainer combo have fared better together than apart. Note the win in her only start at today's distance of ground. #1 WHERE'S MY RING - a definite one two three player - has some decent back class, and slides in six slots while dropping a couple of pounds. #4 BARBRATINA has given decent accounts of herself in her four starts to date, and that includes both times when making a second left hand turn. Big upgrade in the irons for today's third start off the pine, and as she got the job done in a convincing $35 fashion the only time she went over glib oval, we see it as a distinct possibility that she can do that once again going two turns.

#1 MISSION BEACH has been away for 2 months after finishing in the back of the pack in the Withers, but colt picked up the lions share the only time trainer's hubby was aboard, and that was also her one outing when going into the starting apparatus first. From a trainer statistic perspective, Russell is a snappy 5 for 6 with dirt dashers not getting Lasix or breaks of 51 to 69 days ridden by today's helmsman. Will need to find a hole late. #6 REASONED ANALYSIS is a bit of a fragile sort, but has shown some improvement with each passing outing, culminating with a maiden breaking effort right here on February 25th. #7 PROPRIETARY TRADE displayed stark improvement when going coast to coast like butter and toast over the local slop last month, and as this fella is a bit better suited for a fast track, we can see a repeat this afternoon.

Featured race of the day is upon us, and it's an overflow field of 13 for this year's Wood Memorial. #11 SOCIETY MAN put it all together when having Lasix added for the first time last out, as he grabbed the lead at the top of the stretch to win going away at 7 to 2. Yes, the prior stakes outing left a bit to be desired, but if you notice, this one seems to have some trouble at the onset at times. The lone two turn event on a track labeled fast produced a third place finish at 12-1, and as that came after a lengthy sabbatical, you can feel free to upgrade it a bit. Could be rolling on the outside late in the game. #13 UNCLE HEAVY has won three or four so far, and two of those wins came when breaking from the outermost two post positions. Pennsylvania based runner owns the all important win over the track, & has the type of grittiness we like to see from Derby prospects this time of year. #9 TUSCAN SKY followed up the debut maidenn breaking win with a repeat victory at a different track, going two turns, and facing winners for the first time. That's never easy to do, and although it was a three horse race, the second place finisher from that day scored in a stakes event when next in action. Watch out.

Our final race of the day will be our third analysis where the listed threesome should suffice. #3 GRANADILLA played the fade when getting her working papers in late September, but barn enlists the services of a pilot who has done well for them, and we like that the miracle drug is still kept out of the mix. #4 MOMMASGOTTAGUN takes her first afternoon trip to the front side today, and does such with a pair of recent/decent works. 407 Tomlinson figure is hefty enough, but as this decently bread runner went for substantially less than the stud fee at auction, you should take a looksee during the warmups. #1 PEONY - a triple candidate for sure - has been ITM in both heats to date, and gets a cozy draw for the first time while cutting back a panel.

Aqueduct ( Spring ): 2-16 ( $9.90 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A  Favorite's Win %: 7-16 ( 43.8% ) ( As of Saturday afternoon )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout