Decent day for us here yesterday with a $514 Rolling Pick Three, two Rolling Doubles of $119 & $26, and three winners.
Additionally, our 107-1 top choice in the Wood ( the biggest longshot we've ever selected in 20,798 races ) finished an AMAING second, getting back some solid bread for our readers !!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Bravo Regina | 2nd -Afilada | 3rd -Take Time to Dream |
A pretty uninspiring opener today, so tread lightly. #4 BRAVO REGINA somehow managed to be fanned six wide in a 5 horse field last time out, but still ended up finishing third that afternoon. New jock in the stirrups today, and we recognize that this one's lone win came at the trip and over the strip. Meekest of choices. #2 AFILADA finished just behind the above last time out, but sheds 7 lbs. off that effort while sliding in a slot. Note that the lone victory came at this trip and over the strip. #3 TAKE TIME TO DREAM was in a tough spot after the maiden breaker, but finds herself in a more suitable level today while having blinkers added and shedding some tonnage.
| Race 2 | 1st -Frannie Lew | 2nd -Will Be Famous | 3rd -Belle of the Ball |
With the entry of #6 FRANNIE LEW, you can pretty much assume that the track will come up wet today, as in a wild anomaly, this one has not caught a glib surface in six career outings. That being said, she's been a different critter since returning off the elongated absence, having hit the board and all three starts, and seems to dig breaking from the outside. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, honk if you like Donk with locally based allowance dirt dashers who hit the board less than 50 days ago at 7 to 1 or less. He's 5 for 12 in that regards with a positive return on investment, and there's a subcategory of one for one with today's jock board. #4 WILL BE FAMOUS played the fade last time out, but there's no scary drop today, and we see that she closed out the Exacta the only time she was in a third off of layoff spot. Recognize the two for nine mark at today's distance of ground, in comparison to being zero for nine otherwise. #3 BELLE OF THE BALL has yet to miss the super on the sandy stuff, and showed good mettle when rallying to pick up 20% of the pot last time out.
| Race 3 | 1st -Stress Reliever | 2nd -Thirteen Red Flags | 3rd -Walk With Me |
#4 STRESS RELIEVER showed marked improvement when having blinkers added last time out, as she fought the good fight in going all the way to pick up the diploma. While a bounce is always possible off of that, we are thinking this well bred gal may have turned the corner. #2 THIRTEEN RED FLAGS gave a decent account of herself when splitting the field in a stakes last out, and has eye cups added off that effort. She's pretty steady, and should be in the thick of things late. #6 WALK WITH ME returned off a bit of a freshening to close out the superfecta in the stakes event back in mid February, and now gets the miracle drug for the first time in today's second off the layoff attempt. Hard to knock given the way she's handled herself so far,
| Race 4 | 1st -Rayya Valentine | 2nd -Shelly | 3rd -Irish Jackson |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #7 RAYYA VALENTINE has finished in the back half of the pack in her last pair, and the white flag is promptly run up as she is available for purchase for the first time. We see that her lone victory came the only time she went one turn on a fast track, and this gal should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #4 SHELLY came back off a bit of a break to finish dead last 2 weeks ago, and is now in with the tag today, having won the only other time she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt. #3 IRISH JACKSON outran her odds quite nicely when completing the triple at 21-1 last time out, and the winner from that event returned victorious when next in action. She's a lightly raced 5-year-old, so it would behoove you to take a gander in the paddock.
| Race 5 | 1st -Cracklin Cat | 2nd -Camera | 3rd -Save Time |
#3 CRACKLIN CAT ( cross entered at Laurel yesterday ) lost by just a neck after being a bit tardy to the party at the onset first time out, and we like the confidence shown in protecting her against the claim this afternoon. Slight edge. #1 CAMERA has been anything but photogenic in her first two starts, positively immolating baccala when losing both events at odds on. May have needed the most recent, but feel she still may take an unnecessary pounding at the windows today. Leaving beneath. #2 SAVE TIME showed a little bit of a z pattern late in the game in her Hallandale debut, and with maturity may improve off of that.
| Race 6 | 1st -Divine Armor | 2nd -Bourbon Calling | 3rd -Trafalgar |
#7 DIVINE ARMOR bested only one on March 30th, and after being purchased for $50,000 2 years ago, is now entered for half that price today. Best work has come at today's trip, and is a mild selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. Oh yeah, there's a decent trainer stat here as well, as this barn is 6 of 13 with Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock dropping 50% at 13 to 1 with today's pilot. #1 BOURBON CALLING ( spotted yesterday ) mererly finished fourth last time out, but you could feel free to upgrade that as this one is historically about 8.7% better on a track labeled "fast". #6 TRAFALGAR finds himself at his lowest level to date, and as this barn has had a bit of a fire sale of late, we'd be remiss in excluding. NOTE: AS OF 6:11 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS OF 10:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Bold Endeavor | 2nd -Makers Candy | 3rd -Synthesis |
#2 BOLD ENDEAVOR has been on the sidelines since being bought at the end of January, but is protected against being purchased today, and has a nice record at the dx.. Factor if sound and fully cranked up. #6 MAKERS CANDY was vanned off in the last, so right off the bat you need to take a look at this one in the paddock. Colt has some decent back class, and is a sensational four of six at today's distance of ground. #3 SYNTHESIS was dead game when winning at the level just below this last time out, and we see a repeat as being quite feasible. NOTE: AS OF 10:23, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDES SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-6-1.
| Race 8 | 1st -Thistle | 2nd -Disappearance | 3rd -Rocket and Roll |
#7 THISTLE returned off a 3-month layoff to finish a well beaten but extremely clear runner up in this race, and as this gray building is 4:2-2-0 at today's trip in comparison to being 10:0-0-1 otherwise, will give him the nod. One for two mark in second off the bench engagements only helps matters. #1 DISAPPEARANCE has completed the triple in his last triad, and while we're not sure what will get this one over the top, is kind of hard to leave out. #4 ROCKET AND ROLL has been MIA since mid January, but only start after a sabbatical yielded a lively victory. $675,000 purchase can be all yours for 1/48th of that today, so caveat emptor. NOTE: AS OF 10:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 5-27 ( $29 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 11-27 ( 40.7% ) ( As of Sunday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
