Humdrum day for us here on Sunday with an $11 winner, a $448 Rolling Pick Five, and two Rolling Pick Threes of $290 & $197.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 Prince of Pharoahs
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st - Well Schooled | 2nd -Malarchuk | 3rd -Sequential |
#3 WELL SCHOOLED begins his working life today, and does such with a bullet gate breeze on the docket - something that always merits inclusion. Gelding went for 11 times the stud fee at auction, and barn is 7:3-2-0 with Aqueduct based first time starters on the sand at this level, getting the wonder drug and today's jock ( 10-1 or less ). The winners came back a healthy $22, $20, and $10, and will give this one a slight nod. #6 MALARCHUK has been beset by back-to-back layoff lines to begin his career, but gets the Big L for the first time, and owns the best adjusted one turn dirt number in the field. Obviously we like the draw. #4 SEQUENTIAL ( uncoupled entry mate with our secondary selection ) is very well bred and would be no surprise whatsoever.
| Race 2 | 1st -Market Alert | 2nd -Bronx Bomber | 3rd -Big Engine |
We're seeing this race as easy as 1 2 3 ! ( Not really, but aren't we clever ? ) #1 MARKET ALERT has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this Chestnut chap had to leave a forwarding address after four of his recent six outings. Gelding goes for the hat trick today, and we say it's quite feasible given his propensity for finding the winner's circle at the Big A. Factor in the solid mark when loading first, his ability to send or rate, and you have the makings of a solid selection. #2 BRONX BOMBER is a nibbler by rote, and seems like a perfect unders candidate. #3 BIG ENGINE ( who unfortunately won't be able to ply his trade here next year, despite still earning a bunch of checks ) has a perfect declining record of 28:9-5-3 in Ozone Park, and what the hell is wrong with that? BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 PRINCE OF PHAROAHS
| Race 3 | 1st -Giant's Fire | 2nd -Solo in Paris | 3rd -Bobby the Tank |
#7 GIANT'S FIRE has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but this chestnut chap found the line first in his lone start at today's trip, is one for three off the bench on the main, and gelding is made available for purchase for the first time. Mildest of selections in a race with no first draft tossouts. #5 SOLO IN PARIS has done nothing to get the pulse racing over his last quartet, but is one of three at today's dx., and gets a little bit of class relief today. #1 BOBBY THE TANK is wheeled right back after beating only one home last week, but the lone win came right here, and he's as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 4 | 1st -Hatch | 2nd -Clem Lebine | 3rd -Dot's Dollar |
#3 HATCH - like so many of Jimmy Ferraro claims - has done well since the purchase back in November. Gray gelding has won two of five since that day - both at higher levels. That was a tough spot for him last time out, but we're assuaged by the fact that this clan has won three or four times with mid-level dirt dashers that hit the board 20 to 45 days in the rear right here ( less than 33 to 1 and ridden by today's jockey ). The payouts for that study are a juicy $14, $8, and $36, and will afford this one the chance to rebound. #1 CLEM LEBINE was a bit tardy to the party last time out, but rallied decently in gaining nearly 10 lengths from the half mile pole to the finish line. The winner that day returned victorious when next in action, & we're expecting a sharper effort in today's third off the layoff attempt. #5 DOT'S DOLLAR is another runner from this barn who is being brought back very quickly, and 5-year-old has done quite well at the strip and over the strip; finds himself at depths yet unseen.
| Race 5 | 1st -Within View | 2nd -Beengoodtoknowya | 3rd -Compute It |
This triumvirate should suffice for all your rolling action. #5 WITHIN VIEW takes the biggest drop in the game, sheds 2 lb,'s while sliding in a slot, and was a decent third place finisher in his sole start when made available for purchase. Should be no worse than third for all of you show grinders out there. #8 BEENGOODTOKNOWYA has done okay in both starts since returning from a full calendar layoff, and we like the z pattern displayed in the most recent. He lost seven and a half lengths from the quarter to the half that day, before getting back more than four from that point to the finish line. #3 COMPUTE IT drops a couple of pegs, and has yet to miss a superfecta. Tough to leave out. NOTE: AS OF 1:25 A.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 6 | 1st -Status Seeker | 2nd -Snappin Buttons | 3rd -You're Forever |
| Race 7 | 1st -Anileate | 2nd -Embraceable Gal | 3rd -Smokin' Hot Kitty |
#2 ANILEATE has been a might flat over her last pair, but we like to go back three races to find something positive, and the January effort at 25-1 was quite sharp. Last win came beneath today's pilot, and we will give her a chance to make amends today, at what will most likely be a decent offering. #5 EMBRACEABLE GAL went coast to coast like butter on toast when entered for a dime in her first start off a 9 week of sabbatical, and while this is a substantially tough placement, she has never missed the money over this oval, so perhaps she can stay hot. #4 SMOKIN' HOT KITTY is another one who went all the way when last in action, and as that was her only start going a flat mile, we'd be silly to dismiss.
| Race 8 | 1st -Sondsliksondiniddo | 2nd -Savage Spirit | 3rd -Alpha Sonny |
#4 SONDSLIKSOMDINIDDO has only beaten home one runner in two stars to date, but the adjusted figaro from the January effort was decent enough, and if this 4-year-old can overcome the gate issues, may be able to take a step forward today beneath the new pilot. #6 SAVAGE SPIRIT returned off a bit of a freshening to lose by just a neck last month, and gets an upgrade in the saddle this afternoon. #7 ALPHA SONNY overcame his 37 to 1 offering when completing the Exacta on the 14th of March, posting a career best number in the process. Those were some quick fractions that day, so it was by no means of fluke, and we'll incorporate.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 6-35 ( $39.60 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 14-35 ( 40% ) ( As of Thursday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
