Decent day for us here yesterday with a pair of winners ( $18 & $15 ) to go along with a successful 'Beatable Favorite".
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Creation of Adam | 2nd -King of France | 3rd -Citizen Mac |
#3 CREATION OF ADAM has been beset by back-to-back layoff lines to begin his career, but both efforts were honest enough, and rates an honest chance if looking good enough during the warm-ups. #6 KING OF FRANCE has only bested one in two starts to date, but gets the eye cups for the first time, and goes over a glib surface for the second time. Could park up a bit. #1 CITIZEN MAC closed out the triple in a near identical spot at the end of March, and slides in eight slots off that effort. Could grind out a share.
| Race 2 | 1st -Corporate Power | 2nd -Unique Insight | 3rd -Lightline |
#1 CORPORATE POWER is a pricey Triple Crown nominee who looked like a good thing when going two turns for the first time down in Hallandale Beach. Shug runner overcame some trouble at the onset ( along with some greenness at the finish ) to win by a noggin versus maiden special weight company. The 386 Tomlinson figure tells us the result that day was likely not an aberration, and from a DRF Formulator standpoint, said shot caller has an unblemished four for four record with second time routers who picked up their diplomas 45 to 62 days in the rear ( getting lasix ), with the winners returning $6, $5, $11, and $4. Could sit a nice pocket trip. #3 UNIQUE INSIGHT has done nothing but get better and better with each passing dirt start, culminating with a maiden breaking victory at the trip and over the strip in mid February. While a bounce is always possible in today's second time Lasix deal, we'd be remiss in excluding. #2 LIGHTLINE didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the Gotham, but hit the board in three routes just prior to that, and deserves your respect on the class drop.
| Race 3 | 1st -Bounteous | 2nd -Cool Operator | 3rd -Allegrini |
#5 BOUNTEOUS has closed out the superfecta in both starts since the freshening, and now drops in class for the second straight time. Recognize that the best two dirt numbers came on a track labeled "Fst", and also happened without the use of the miracle drug - which she now has. From a trainer stat point of view, Mott is a spectacularly saucy 7 for 8 with maiden claiming mail dirt dashers using blinkers, off breaks of 35 to 104 days, and there is an ROI of $3.40+ with that sort. Watch out! #6 COOL OPERATOR takes the biggest drop in the game today while having eye cups affixed for the first time as well. Sensible, but was cross entered at Keeneland on Wednesday, so be sure to check the scratch board. #4 ALLEGRINI showed improved early dash back on the 14th of March, and perhaps he could last a little bit longer in today's third off the layoff attempt.
| Race 4 | 1st -Sandy Sweet Tooth | 2nd -Barron's Bounce | 3rd -Z Dancer |
#3 SANDY SWEET TOOTH displayed a nice little "Z" pattern when getting his working papers last month, as he lost four lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining back a little bit more than that from that point to the finish line. Gelding sheds 32 oz. off of that, and as he's better bred for a fast track than one with moisture in it, we see the potential for some improvement. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #1 BARRON'S BOUNCE has outrun his parimutual offering in both starts to date, while improving by 50% and the buyer department second time out. Jockey/trainer combo off to a nice start at the stand, and we're expecting a move forward. #4 Z DANCER rounds out the top three.
| Race 5 | 1st -Youbetterbejoking | 2nd -Royal King | 3rd -Midnight Express |
#4 YOUBETTERBEJOKING showed very little in a near identical placement two weeks ago, but lost by just a neck in the outing prior to that, and we'll give him a slight nod here in hopes of a rebound. #2 ROYAL KING was confidently claimed off an 8 month sabbatical for $16,000, and now takes the obligatory hike in class up to a quarter today. Jockey/Trainer combination have done substantially better together than apart, and as this fellow posted a career best effort when going all the way in his only second off the layoff attempt, we'd say he could be sitting on a good one here. #7 MIDNIGHT EXPRESS drops in class for his second start against winners, and draws the outside for today's third start off the pine. May land a share.
| Race 6 | 1st -Tempermental | 2nd -Queens Masterpiece | 3rd -Little Linzee |
#2 TEMPERMENTAL makes her first start off the 3/10 purchase, and despite being out of jail, is protected against a claim once again today. New bossman removes the hood today, and gal has done her best work over this oval. Hard knocker should be in the thick of things late. #6 QUEENS MASTERPIECE hasn't been seen since being eased nearly 3 months ago, but we're assuaged by the fact that the only time she returned off a break on a fast track, a lively second place finish was the end result. Nonetheless, it would behoove you to take a look during the warm ups, especially as this barn is ghastly with those returning off of this type of L/O. #5 LITTLE LINZEE was a going away winner against somewhat weaker last out, tying her best speed figure in the process. Can't fault those taking a view that today's extra panel shouldn't be an issue.
| Race 7 | 1st -Radio Red | 2nd -Subrogate | 3rd -Be the Boss |
#2 RADIO RED has the best collection of figures in the field, comes in off of a lifetime best number over a wet track, slides in six post positions off of that performance, and should be no worse than second for all those betting to place. #9 SUBROGATE may have the best chance of upsetting the apple cart if able to get back to a couple of those nice races last year. Obviously, the layoff is of a concern, but Colt gets the Big "L" for the first time, and barn knows what they're doing. #7 BE THE BOSS picked up the lions share when tangling with optional foes a month ago, and has done nice things at today's distance of ground ( 5:2-2-0 ).
| Race 8 | 1st -Flash Kiss | 2nd -Chocolate Shake | 3rd -Montebello |
#3 FLASH KISS always seems to encounter some trouble at the onset, so we're not going to dismiss the last solely on prima facia, however, but we will do is take a long look at the penultimate outing. Gelding was a sharp winner to the tune of $16 that afternoon, and drops in class here while making his second start off the wood. From a trainer stat POV, Terranova is three for eight with locally based mid level dirt stock who hit the board 20 to 50 days in the rear ( 13-1 or undah ), with those winners returning $16, $12, and $5. #6 CHOCOLATE SHAKE displayed zilch when returning off a lengthy hibernation, and after being kept in prison since that day's claim, is another one on the drop down. The pre purchase pilot returns, which is something we always like to see, and we'll toss him in the mix. #4 MONTEBELLO complete our troika of selections taking the plunge, and 5 year old with a touch of backlash is in a third off the layoff situation for the first time in his career.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 8-43 ( $72.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 17-43 ( 39.5% ) ( As of Friday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
