Just a pair of chalky winners on the day for us here yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #5 Twelth Man
Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1.
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Trade Secret | 2nd -Killy Start | 3rd -Diva Banker |
These three and no more for all our rolling action to start out the day. #3 TRADE SECRET got up in time to best similar type here on the 22nd of March, giving good guy Edmund Pringle his second winner on the year. The effort that day was a lot better than it looked, as this mare was fanned nine wide the field with only six horses. While a bounce is always possible off a career best effort, we're going to pin out hopes to a runner who should be no worse than third for all of you who like to grind out of show profit. #2 KILLY START was in the rear with the gear when returning off a 2 1/2 month sabbatical at the end of March, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and is two of four when first to load. Chance to make amends with an upgrade in the saddle. #1 DIVA BANKER has always been quite the nibbler in Ozone Park, but is another one sliding down the ladder and has done good things at today's distance. NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Lake Abanakee | 2nd -Mommasgottagun | 3rd -Eastern Star |
#3 LAKE ABANAKEE begins her working life this afternoon, and does such with a pair of crisp gate moves in tow, which is something that always piques our attention. The 351 Tomlinson figure is honest enough, and 4-year-old has a maturity edge over several signed on. Recognize that this one is a full to a multiple stakes place runner who has hit the board in 19 or 29 starts to date ( 172K ), and was a lively runner up directly behind a next-out winner when beginning his career at 19 to 1. #1 MOMMASGOTTAGUN - scratched a few days ago - went for $70,000 less than the stud fee, so right off the bat it would behoove you to take a look in the paddock. Gal is extremely well bred for today's trip, and has a bullet in the holster for this. #5 EASTERN STAR appears to be the speed of this deal, and is hard to dismiss having been a part of the superfecta in all her starts but one.
| Race 3 | 1st -Assume Nothing | 2nd -Mighty Atlas | 3rd -Night Effect |
#4 ASSUME NOTHING has for the most part in a fringe player when going today's distance of ground, but you have to admire his consistency on the sand, as the 12:2-6-3 mark belies. Gelding was a nose ahead of a next out winner and in identical spot back in mid March, & makes all kinds of sense once again in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 MIGHTY ATLAS finished a couple of spots behind the above when returning off an elongated absence, but gets an upgrade in the irons this afternoon, and is showing a pair of crisp morning moves since the comebacker. #2 NIGHT EFFECT has been in the money in four or five starts this annum, and comes in today off a lifetime best figaro at 26 to 1.
| Race 4 | 1st -Friday I'm In Love | 2nd -Flip Strean | 3rd -Safalow's Mission |
#4 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE has shown precipitous improvement since returning off a 4 month hibernation, and this chestnut chaap has gone 4:1-1-1 since returning, which includes a wire to wire maiden breaker when entered for 30 large. 4-year-old is protected against the purchase today, and rates a slight edge in another tough heat. #6 FLIP STREAM is another one coming in off the maiden breaker, but just won from an outside post, and makes his second start off the bench today. #2 SAFALOW'S MISSION was a neck behind a next out victor at the end of February, and although he has a penchant for the minor checks, he is in possession of two wins and a third place finish from as many third off the layoff engagements.
| Race 5 | 1st -Blue Plate Special | 2nd -Bayou Spirit | 3rd -Devil's Cay |
#7 BLUE PLATE SPECIAL was on a decent run over his last sextet before finishing in the back half of the pack against substantially tougher three dozen days in the rear. This one's best work has come over this oval, and 7% Persaud more than quintuples his normal batting average when it comes to locally based male dirt dashers or breaks of 22 to 42 days ( 20-1 or less ), with returns of $14, $13, $10, and $6. Our research tells us that this one has hit the board both times when last to load. #4 BAYOU SPIRIT has been in absentia since besting but one more than 3 months ago, but colt picked up the lions share in his only start off a break in the action. Chance to make amends, especially seeing that he was victorious both times he had a "For sale" sticker attached to his rump. #6 DEVIL'S CAY drops a dime off a solid runner up placement, and is now answered for the price claimed from two back. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 TWELTH MAN
| Race 6 | 1st -Gentleman Joe | 2nd -Dangerous Ride | 3rd -Flint Ridge |
#5 GENTLEMAN JOE immolated some baccala when merely finishing 4th at 2 to 1 last out, but bay boy has done decent work in Queens, and is on a 4:1-1-1-1 skein when made available for purchase. From a Drf Formulator standpoint, this outfit is 7-18 w/ locally based third off the bench mid level dirt stock ridden by today's pilot, who were off the board less than two fortnights back. #7 DANGEROUS RIDE was awful when last seen down in Hallandale Beach, but has yet to miss a super when up for grabs, and picked up the lions share the only time he went into into the starting gate last and a one turn event. #1 FLINT RIDGE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is as good as any for the show though given the solid body of work. NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-3-1.
| Race 7 | 1st -Sorority Prank | 2nd -Bob John Ray | 3rd -Aelgar |
#1 SORORITY PRANK was claimed off a solid placing/career best performance 23 days back, and as per the rules, is hiked up in class for today's return. 3YO is supported by a 3 fer 3 trainer stat, which has Papa Engelhart at just that with freshly purchased runners at this level off breaks of 72 days or less. #4 BOB JOHN RAY had an extremely interesting running line first time out, when losing nine lengths from the quarter to the half, then gaining nearly all of it back from that point to the finish line. Blinkers are now a part of the makeup in an effort to give this one a little bit more speed, and definitely deserves another chance given the pedigree. #2 AELFGAR has put forth three consecutive solid performances -- the most recent of which being a stakes had 19 to 1 -- and is deserving of your respect.
| Race 8 | 1st -Breaking Stones | 2nd -Colonel Vargo | 3rd -Horn of Plenty |
#8 BREAKING STONES is dropped in class for the second straight time, but has a nice boxscore at today's distance, and is a crisp 5:1-2-1 when breaking from the outermost two slots. Fellow looks to have the best shot of upsetting our secondary selection, #1 COLONEL VARGO. This likely favorite has done nothing but improve over his last four calls to the post ( from a speed figure standpoint ), and is a sublime 8 for 10 when going over a glib surface. His race to lose. #5 HORN OF PLENTY has won his last two starts when entered for 16,000 or less, but given the woeful record beneath the seagulls, will relegate to the unders.
| Race 9 | 1st -Berning Beauty | 2nd -Merlin's Moment | 3rd -Sir Magic |
#3 BERNING BEAUTY has been freshened up a touch since merely splitting an 11 horse allotment back on February the 11th. Blinkers have been removed for today's comebacker, and there is some improvement in the irons as well. Meek selection in a heat with just one first draft toss. #7 MERLIN'S MOMENT was an honest runner up directly in front of the next out winner in the same race as the above, and the solid pedigree tells us the result that day was likely not a fluke. #8 SIR MAGIC is a $125,000 bred animal who went for nearly twice that amount up at the Spa two years ago, and could be any kind.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 10-51 ( $8080 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 20-51 ( 39.7% ) ( As of Saturday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
