4/14 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Decent day for us here yesterday with the following:

--A $657 Rolling Pick Five

--Four Rolling Pick Threes of $589, $172, $80 & $53

--A $66 Cold Double, and five Rolling DD's of $156, $48, $39, $16 & $12

--A $37 Ice Cold Exacta

--Two profitable winners of $16 & $9

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #8 Island Fox  Race 6 - #10 Group Eighteen  Race 7 - #8 Tough Street

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#6 RUVIES IN TIME was as flat as a pancake when last seen a half a month ago, but the good news though, is this one's best work has come beneath the seagulls, and barn is backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, they more than quadruple they're normative 8% batting average with locally based mid-level sand stock who are off the board less than 46 days ago. They's 3 of 9 in that regards, & the winners in that sampling paid $12, $18, and $36 and they were all ridden  by this jock. #3 SLACK TIDE was an honest runner-up against slightly weaker a month ago, and gets a jock upgrade from that day. #1A SHE'S AWESOME is a fairly consistent gal, and given the perfect two for two mark at today's distance of ground along with having found the line first, the last time she returned off an absence, so we'll toss into the mix.

#1A PITCH CLOCK ( boy do I hate that thing ) hasn't been seen in nearly 10 months, but was ascending the Beyer ladder when last in action, and barn is a nifty four of six with Aqueduct based optional dirt dashers who won more than 71 days ago. The ROI for that sampling is $2.62, and there are a couple of decent morning moves for today's comebacker. #6 VERY PRACTICAL put it all together with the win down in Oldsmar, and that race has proven to be a key affair, as the three returnees who finished closest to her that day, all returned victorious. They improved by an average of 10.3 points per, and of course we love the draw today. #2 SWEET MYSTERY is a nibbler by rote, but owns a win and a runner up finish in both starts from breaking from the inside. Toss in an Exacta finish when returning off an absence, and you have the makings of a decent unders candidate.

This year's rendition of the Top Flight failed to fill on Saturday, and was brought back today with one extra entrant. Not sure if they will all go, but will side with the #1 COMPARATIVE. Filly has won her last four starts outside of graded steaks company, is two for two over this oval, and three or four beneath today's pilot. Makes all kinds of sense. #3 TIZZY IN THE SKY went coast to coast like butter and toast both times she was in a second off the layoff situation, and lightly raced mare has done well at this trip and over this strip. Recognize the dead game second place finish in her lone start beneath today's pilot. #4 SPIKED is 3:2-1-0 when going from one turn to two, and outran her odds quite nicely in her lone pairing underneath today's pilot.

#1 TROUBLED LUCK showed diddly poo when finishing in the back half of the pack at a zillion to one last time out, but the figure earned that day is comparable to just about everything else anybody in this field has put up recently. Gal was an honest second place finisher two starts back beneath today's pilot, and may be overlooked given the trainer. Slight edge. #3 SENDERA displayed a little bit of a "Z" pattern last time out when losing three and a half lengths from the half to the top of the stretch, before gaining back nearly all of that from that point to the finish line. A regression is always possible in the second off the layoff attempt, especially as she is not as well bred for a fast track, but we'll chunk her in the hopper. #7 SHE'S A NATURAL is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but came along honestly to hit the board last time out, and could do the same once again with a little pace to cut into.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 ISLAND FOX has a pretty low Tomlinson for today's lid lifter, and we'll avoid at 7-2.

The first of two stallion series races is on top here, and we'll give a nod to #3 HEAVYWEIGHT CHAMPS. This Rudy Rod runner appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and made every call a winning one when procuring the sheepskin at the end of February. Gelding drops 4 lb off the tally, which is something we always dig, and is the threat to go all the way once again. #4 ANTONIO OF VENICE is another one coming in off of wire job, and as he owns the sort of declining record that we've grown to love, we'd be all kinds of silly to exclude -- especially with the progression of speed figures over his last triad. #7 DOC SULLIVAN has never missed the money and who are we to rock that boat?

#1 DURKIN'S CALL sure is quite the old war horse isn't he? 8 year old takes his 63rd afternoon trek to the front side, and although he's been camera shy over the last year and a half, is still cashing some checks. Best work has come at today's trip, and slides in a couple of slots for today's second start off of break in the action. Mild choice. #5 DADDY KNOWS has hit the board and three of his last four calls to the post, and although he has a sweet mark at the Big A, we're going to leave beneath because we really haven't been digging his action of late. #2 BLAKE B was kept in jail after the claim two back, and returned to complete the Exacta at the exact same level next time out. Obvious factor once again.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 GROUP EIGHTEEN has done terribly in all four 1X attempts, and we'll definitely side against.  

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 ! ( Well, not really, but ain't we clever? ) #1 DAME CINCO fell short by just a noggin in a near identical spot on St. Patrick's Day, and that effort improved his overall mark in Queens to a respectable 16:3-4-1. Six year old draws snugly once again, and the extra half panel could be of some assistance today. #2 IT TAKES HEART returned off an elongated sabbatical to close out the Super at the end of February, and was claim protected that afternoon. Chestnut gal finish third in her only second off the layoff attempt on a good surface, and should be in the thick of things once again. #3 STARSHIP DEFIANT is a prodigious check earner, and we can't fault those taking a favorable view.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have #8 TOUGH STREET at several points lower than our 3rd selection, so why would we accept favoritism ?

We're not really feeling the heat from this heat so we couldn't blame you if you took a seat. But for all your rolling activity... #3 HANDLE ON YOU has been a vastly improved animal over her last troika, as she has partaken in the superfecta in each of those starts. Jockey/Trainer combo fare better together than apart, and it's nice to see Romero have some success this winter. He's a good guy. Will give this one the slight edge off of the back-to-back career best efforts. #8 SUNDAY GIRL was a smashing victress right out of the box for Double-D back in Feb., and she really didn't miss too much time off the work tab after that effort. We liked the mettleshown when she overcame getting smacked around at the onset that day, but drawing the ideal post today should help aid for a cleaner beginning. #7 MY SHEA D LADY is the class of this field, and bested tougher right here back in mid December. Always encouraging when a pre layoff pilot returns, but as this one has fared no better than third in both starts off a break, will keep beneath.

#6 DREAM ON CARA played the fade when going longer last time out, but makes her second start off the respite this afternoon. That last part is of some relevance because the only other time she did that on a fast track, an adjusted 64.6 was the end result, and it came at a substantially higher level without the use of the Wonder Drug. From a trainer stat point of view, Gus is a crisp five of nine with second off the claim Aqueduct based, dirt equines, who missed the baccala less than two fortnight's back and are 24 to 1 or less ( $9, $8, $13, $23, and $7 ). You may get some inflated value here. #5 HOUDINI'S BRIDE ( by "Good Magic" -- you get it ? ), gets her working papers this afternoon, and does so with a few solid morning moves in tow. $125,000 bred animal went for 1/5 of that at Keeneland a couple of years ago, so it would behoove used to take a gander in the paddock. #3 MAJESTIC LAURA ANN bested one horse and one ambulance first time out, but has eye cups affixed for the first time this afternoon, and is confidently hiked in class a nickel despite being out of prison after the February 19th purchase. Big shot with a tidier break.

Aqueduct ( Spring ): 12-60 ( $105.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% )  Favorite's Win %: 21-60 ( 34.4% ) ( As of Sunday afternoon )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout