4/18 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just one chalky winner on a card chock full of the stuff on Sunday.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #7 Ten Ten  Race 7 - Kazamias Entry

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#3 JINGLE JANGLE ( "How about you, Lash LaRue ? You think you can keep your spurs from jingling and jangling ?" ) has been set by layoff lines after both starts to date, in which she only beat one home. Gal takes the biggest drop in the game today while having Lasix administered for the first time, & at the very least we find it encouraging that the pre layoff pilot returns. 349 Tomlinson figure is adequate enough to give this one another chance. #1 TERESA closed out the triple for the third time in three starts at this level over a fast track, and while a regression is always possible in a second time wonder drug/second time blinkers scenario, we'd be remiss in excluding. From a DRF Formulator aspect, This barn is 4:3-1-0 with locally based made in claiming dirt stock who hit the board 13 to 42 days ago, w/ returns of $5, $4, and $9. #6 OUR REWARD showed vastly improved speed last time out when having front wraps taken off. Obvious factor once again.  NOTE: AS OF 6:11 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 TEN TEN doesn't make our top two selections, so why would we accept favoritism ? 

We really don't have the best of reads on the second half of today's early Daily Double, but will give a tepid nod to #6 PHAROAH'S HEART. This extremely lightly raced seven year old mare, has been quite consistent in her abbreviated career, and such that she's been a part of the Exacta in 9 of 13 starts. Has two wins, a second, and a third and as many starts when we turning off an absence, and despite being out of jail have to be in purchase for half a C note back in January, is protected against the claims today. She digs the strip, and draws ideally. #2 FUNNY HOW has a touch of back class, and it's nearly impossible to ignore the five for seven mark in Ozone Park. Sheds 5 lb.'s of the recent disappointment and deserves a shot in today's second off the bench engagement. #4 LEAVE NO TRACE enters today off a career best dirt number, and we like the grittiness shown in the last win.  NOTE: AS OF 6:15 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES WILL BE 3 & 1 RESPECTIVELY.

#6 COOLCALM COLLECTED hasn't been seen since the win and a voided claim last October, so right off the bat it would behoove you to take a gander at this one during the warm ups. The good news though, is the win that day was in her only start office sabbatical, and gal won by nearly a pole the only time she broke from an outsidish slot. Jockey/Trainer combo do better together than apart, and we'll make her a timid selection. #1 BELLE OF THE BALL is a nibbler by rote, ( as the 11:1-2-6 mark belies ) but has done okay at this trip, over the strip, and versus this type. Gets the pine for the first time as well. #4 BLOME lost by just a half a length directly in front of a next out victress the only time she was in the third off of layoff situation, and it's encourageing to see the local pilot coming in for the mount.  NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Both the #1 SOUTH STREET ( backed by a 6 for 14 trainer stat which has this barn at just that in regards to their locally based male dirt runners at this level who missed the board less than three dozen days ago --ridden by Castillo ) and the #1A G MUNNING ( who finds himself at his lowest level to date ), comprise decent factions of the Lawrence Roman entry. #6 GUN MAESTRO played a little bit of the fade last time out, but the number came back honest enough, and we'll leave this nibbler beneath. #2 DAD'S GOOD RUNNER is one for five when first to load, and zero for 18 otherwise; could spice things up a tad.  NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES WILL BE 3 & 7 RESPECTIVELY.

#3 PRETTI EXTREME came along solidly to pick up 12% of the pot back in mid March, and should appreciate today's added ground. Gal has a sweet declining Mark of 14:5-2-1 at today's distance of ground, and is supported by a nice trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, Oscar Oscar Oscar is a tight four of six with female dirt stock at this level and locale who were on the board 20 to 48 days in the rear ( 12-1 or under ) with payoffs of $9, $6, $13, and $5. #4 HALO CITY is aggressively hiked up the ladder today despite being out of prison after the March 1st claim, and we always find it encouraging when the pre purchase pilot ( say that three times fast ) returns. Recognize the 21:5-4-4 ledger in Queens, compared to the 22:0-5 mark at other locations. #6 CINDERELLA'S CAUSE was a going away winner versus substantially weaker last time out, and as this one has ascended the Beyer scale over her last triad, we have no qualms in including.

#4 SPEIGHTS DANCE was in the rear with the gear when facing winners for the first time, but that's never an easy spot, and gal is not as well bred for a wet rack has a good surface. There was a claim voided on this one that day, but we don't worry about soundness issues with stock from this barn, as David Duggan is one of the most above board trainers in the business. Chance to rebound. #1 KAZ'S ROSE is a bit of a fragile sort, and despite having beaten home just one horsey in her last pair, is slightly moved up the ladder this afternoon. Snug draw helps the cause a little bit, and stock goes up if the bandages come off. #3 TAVIN was as dead game of a winner as one can be when facing 20K foes on 3/29, and we see a scenario where she could land a share once again.  NOTE: AS OF 6:19 P.M. TUESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. 

#4 MERAVIGLIOSO is a perfect example as to why transferring a horse over to a bigger trainer isn't necessarily a good thing. This one was doing some decent work for Jimmy Ferraro last year before being taken out of his barn, but since being placed back into his trusting hands, has rung up two wins and a third place finish from three starts. 5 yr. old sheds a whopping 13 lb.'s of a troubled showing 25 days in the rear, and is supported by a solid trainer statistic. The just mentioned boss man is 5:3-0-1 with female allowance dirt sprinters right here at 12-1 or less ( no blinkers ), w/mutuals or $4, $3, and $10. Expecting another goodie if the bug can provide a clean trip. #3 CHASING DAYLIGHT hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in his last three starts, but doesn't appear to really dig a wet track that much. Given his three for five mark prior to those outings, will afford her a chance to pick up the lions share once again. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: Both the #1 ATHENA BEACH ( a winner of four of six starts ) and the #1A  NEWSDLEY ( who has done quite well at this trip while being 3:2-1-0 from an outside post )make up solid factions of the Kazamias entry.

#3 MY GIRL JAL shoots for the hat trick today for a barn not known for their success, but given the professionalism shown in both victories of late, we see a repeat as being well within reach. Filly excels at today's distance, and we like the fact that she laid up closer to the pace last time out. Her shedding 48 ounces off that win only adds to the allure. #9 ZIARAETI hasn't faced the starter since before Labor day, but there's no scary drop and is doing okay in the mornings for today's return. Factor if sound and fully cranked up. #6 OBRIGADA has won four for five at today's trip on a track labeled FST, with the sole blemish occurring after a lengthy absence. Big chance here.

Aqueduct ( Spring ): 13-69 ( $109.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-4 ( 25% )  Favorite's Win %: 27-69 ( 39.1% ) ( As of Thursday afternoon )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout