Just a pair of chalky winners here yesterday.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Looks First | 2nd -Maggie's Song | 3rd -Isn't She Khozy |
We don't really have the best of reeds on today's opener, so tread lightly. The #6 LOOKS FIRST returned off an elongated sabbatical to finish in the back of the pack right here, but had a bit of trouble early on that day, and now takes the biggest drop in the game. Gal goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, and rates a shot in the second off the layoff attempt. #1 MAGGIE'S SONG was a bit tardy to the party first time out, but has been freshened up a bit since then, and slides in five slots while retaining the pre layoff pilot. #3 ISN'T SHE KHOZY hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is another plunging this afternoon, while going over dirt for the first time. That last part is highly relevant, as she's extremely better bred for it than the turf she attempted last summer. NOTE: AS OF 6:52 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 2 | 1st -She'salittleedgy | 2nd -Balsamo entry | 3rd -Remain Anonymous |
#4 SHE'SALITTLE EDGY has made every call a winning one in both starts this annum, and comes in today with a career mark of 4:2-2-0 at today's distance of ground. Mare is in a third of the layoff situation for the first time, and according to DRF Formulator, barn has an unblemished five for five record with locally based mid level sand stock who won less than two fortnights back, at 6-1 or less ( ridden by today's jock ). Logical. Both the #1 GONE AND FORGOTTEN ( 11 of 24 lifetime ) and #1A BANK ON ANNA ( 3:1-0-1 in 2nd off the bench engagements ) comprise decent factions of the Balsamo owned entry. #5 REMAIN ANONYMOUS is one for four and third starts offer options, and totes the lightest and post of her career.
| Race 3 | 1st -Dylan's Ruby | 2nd -Stormquist | 3rd -Mad Banker |
#3 DYLAN'S RUBY was a well beaten but decently clear runner up when facing winners for the first time in Philadelphia Park, and improved in the Beyer department by approximately 10.2%. That's never an easy spot for a maiden breaker, which makes the result that much more impressive. From a trainer stat perspective, this conditioner is never nervous in the Servis when it comes to his male optional sand sprinters off of breaks of 16 to 46 days at 14 to 1 or less ( piloted by today's jockey ). He's 7 for 13 with that sort, and the return on investment is $2.51. #4 STORMQUIST has been befallen by back to back layoff lines, but is one of two off a sabbatical, and there's no scary drop as of yet after the claim two back. #2 MAD BANKER closed out the triple the only time he was first to load, and has solid familiarity with this oval.
| Race 4 | 1st -Capone | 2nd -Ryan's Cat | 3rd -Beachwalker |
#4 CAPONE was life and death to pick up the lions share when facing slightly weaker eight days back, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Gelding has won three of his last four one turn events, and owns an exceptional record beneath the seagulls. Logical off the big fig. #5 RYAN'S CAT has been a bit flat in his last pair, but this 7 yr. old horse ( You hang on to those two little kittens buddy! ) has done well at the strip, over the strip, and found the line first the last time he was up for grabs. #1 BEACHWALKER is a nibbler by rote, but has never seen these depths, and best work has come at today's distance of ground. NOTE: AS OF 10:29 A.M., DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Don Vino Vici | 2nd -Play | 3rd -Better Go Go Go |
#5 DON VINO VICI had a boatload of trouble when losing by just a half length three dozen days back, and after being kept in jail since the claim that day, is returned right back at the very same level. Should be able to get the diploma with a tidier sojourn in today's third start off the L/O. #1 PLAY showed improved speed in the comeback try, and now plunges in today's second off the bench deal. Must use, but by no means a cinch. #6 BETTER GO GO GO has yet to miss a superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat?
| Race 6 | 1st -Ice Road | 2nd -Petrolo | 3rd -Principe d'Oro |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 ICE ROAD has always seemed to prefer the fringes, as the 8:0-6-0 mark over a glib surface belies. That being said, he put forth a good showing the only time when loading first, and is confidently moved up in class in this spot. Should be no worse than third full you show grinders out there, but it's with an ounce of trepidation that we are using him on top. #2 PETROLO hasn't displayed much in the last pair, but we like to be forgiving of pre and post layoff running lines, as perhaps something went amiss before the absence, and perhaps they weren't fully cranked up afterwards. Expecting a better effort in today's second off the shelf deal, along with the drop in class. #5 PRINCIPE D'ORO owns a win and a third place finish the only times he went one turn on a track labeled "fast", and is up for grabs for the first time.
| Race 7 | 1st -Messi the Magician | 2nd -Dr. Kraft | 3rd -Waralo |
#5 MESSI THE MAGICIAN outran his power mutual offering when completing the triple against what we would consider a tougher allotment last out, and is one of two at today's distance. While the bounce is always possible off the lifetime best numero, we'll give him a slight not in this spot. #1 DR. KRAFT hit the board and five consecutive outings over a quick surface, and fell short by only a noggin the one time he was first to load. Solid unders candidate. #2 WARALO has a win and a third place finish in both "true" starts after being away, and fell short by less than a length in his lone pairing w/ today's helmsman. There may be some value here given the recent performance.
| Race 8 | 1st -Watch Hill | 2nd -I'm Just | 3rd -Arco Augusta |
This triad should be enough for all our rolling action. #3 WATCH HILL broke a bit slowly in the most recent, but ended up giving a good account of himself when finishing a second at 6-1. Looks like a 1-2-3 player for sure. #4 I'M JUST has been MIA since a voided claim at the end of August, but has since lost the blinkers along with his procreating abilities, & could pose a threat if sound and fully cranked up. #1 ARCO AUGUSTA comes in off of gamely third place effort a bit over a month ago, & sheds two lbs. off that while sliding in three post positions.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 15-77 ( $116.70) Beatable Favorites: 1-5 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win %: 31-77 ( 40.3% ) ( As of Friday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
