Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Treaty Obligation | 2nd -Frostelle | 3rd -Mano E Mano |
#1 TREATY OBLIGATION has yet to finish out of the money in five starts to date, and that includes efforts over this oval, and off a layoff. $200,000 purchase has recently lost his procreating abilities, and draws snugly for the first time. There's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play, as Chad Brown has won with half of his locally based maiden special wt. dirt dashers at 5 to 1 or less, of breaks of 51 days or more ( ridden by today's jock ). The ROI for that sampling is $5.11, and we'll give this one a slight edge in a tough opener. #3 FROSTELLE gets his working papers today, and does such with the decent Tomlinson at today's distance of ground. There's a bullet gate move on display, and that's something that always merits inclusion. Colt is a half to a Grade 3 winner who banked nearly 600 big ones, and could be any kind. #5 MANO E MANO is another starting thing's out this afternoon, and while decently bred, went for substantially less than the breeding price at auction. If things don't pan out today, tab this one for the grass down the road, as he's a half to Never Surprise, who was wonderful over the stuff.
| Race 2 | 1st -Love Like Crazy | 2nd -Ghostly Girl | 3rd -Army of Thoughts |
#3 LOVE LIKE CRAZY merely split the field when facing winners for the first time at the end of March, but that's never an easy spot, and actually, the number garnered that day was her best to date. Gal drops 4K this afternoon, and goes over a glib service for the second time. Make choice. #5 GHOSTLY GIRL loses the eye cups this afternoon, and that's fairly relevant. Why? Because she was a part of the superfecta in five or nine when wearing them, and had done the same in ten of her last 11 tries without them. Recognize the fact that she comes in at her lowest level to date. #1 ARMY OF THOUGHTS appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and found the line first the only time she broke from an insideish slot.
| Race 3 | 1st -Silver Satin | 2nd -Artful Dreamer | 3rd -Shore Time |
#3 SILVER SATIN has closed out the exacta in both starts thus far, and now has eye cups afixed for the first time, while going over a fast track for the second time. Completely logical, especially in seeing that the barn is 3 for 10 with dirt runners at this level who hit the board less than 50 days ago, while getting Lasix ( $9 x 2, and $12 ). #7 ARTFUL DREAMER was in the rear with the gear first time out, but Tagg is not known for his prowess with firsters, and the draw is better today. #5 SHORE TIME posted an adjusted career best effort in one of his two starts on a track labeled FST, and did such from an outside slot without the use of the wonder drug. Chance to spice things up.
| Race 4 | 1st -Uncle Water Flow | 2nd -Arrebato | 3rd -Union Lights |
#5 UNCLE WATER FLOW takes the obligatory hike in class after winning by more than a handful at odds on 34 days back. Best work has come @ today's trip, and a repeat as well within reach. #4 ARREBATO was a dead game winner at the same level as the above a half a month back, and is another who has done his finest work at today's distance. #3 UNION LIGHTS is a nibbler by rote, as the 18-1-7-1 mark on a fast track belies, but looks to be a solid unders candidate.
| Race 5 | 1st -Grayosh | 2nd -Wake Up Lauren | 3rd -Just One More |
First turf race of the year is upon us, and we're seeing it as a wide open event. Shocker of shockers, we landed on #1 GRAYOSH - a Chad Brown runner - in the top spot. This gray gal tried to run sans pilot down in Hallandale Beach four dozen days ago, but that's not entirely legal, so she'll give it another whirl in the Big Apple. The adjusted figaro of 75.6 from the debut is solid enough, and while she may have outrun her pedigree that day, isn't facing much here, and just may sit it a perfect trip. #6 WAKE UP LAUREN has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but gets the Big L and a hood for today's return, while the jockey/trainer combo have done better together than apart. #3 JUST ONE MORE is extremely well bred for this sort of deal, and is a full to a 6-4-2-0- turf runner, who earned nearly $180,000. Aside from that, he is also a full to the hard knocking New York Bred Voodoo Song, who positively loved the green stuff in banking nearly a million dollars. Could be any kind. OFF TURF: 1-2-3-7-4 NOTE: AS OF 6:28 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 6 | 1st -Nineteen Ousters | 2nd -Independent Paul | 3rd -Clubhouse |
#6 NINETEEN OYSTERS was claimed out of a solid placing versus conditional foes on 3/21, and appears to be a different animal this year. Blinks are now a part of the makeup, and this gray gelding digs the local seagulls. Big shot in today's third off the layoff engagement. #1 INDEPENDENT PAUL owns a decent 5:1-1-1-1 record on the brown stuff, and sheds 4 lb.'s of a troubled runnerup finish. #4 CLUBHOUSE is in the best form of his life, and was a going away winner the only time he was in the second off the layoff situation. Immensely playable.
| Race 7 | 1st -Synthesis | 2nd -Lord Captain | 3rd -Full Screen |
Pretty nifty optional event on tap, with three stakes winners, a Grade 2 placed runner, and a Grade 1 winner. #2 SYNTHESIS was all out to pick up the lions share in a near Triple Dead Heat when spotted versus identical type three weeks back, and right off the bat deserves respect because of that. 18% clan more than doubles that rate when it comes to their queens-based optional dirt stock who won less than 34 nights back, a 10 to 1 or less, ( 3 for 9 ), and given this one's penchant for success at today's dx. Will spot him upstairs. #1A LORD CAPTAIN was another lively victor in a slightly tougher spot back on the 5th, and has two wins and an Exacta completing finish the only times he was last to load. #6 FULL SCREEN rounds out the top three.
| Race 8 | 1st -Spirit of St. Louis | 2nd -Equitize ( GB ) | 3rd -Bring Me a Check |
#3 SPIRIT OF ST. LOUIS has done very little wrong in her abbreviated career -- having yet to finish worse than second from seven starts to date -- and that includes two wins right here at the Big A, as well as a tally in his only attempt after a break in the action. Deserving favorite. #5 EQUITIZE (GB) ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ), has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but is two for three lifetime w/one of those tallies coming after a respite. #8 BRING ME A CHECK has done okay at the trip, and is on a solid 6:2-1-3 skein on the gramma. OFF TURF: 2-3-1-5-9(MTO)
| Race 9 | 1st -Astonesthrowaway | 2nd -Concerti | 3rd -Latest Edition |
Another extremely competitive turf event on tap here. #5 ASTONESTHROWAWAY makes her third start, over a third oval, for her third different trainer, and beneath the a different jockey. All that aside, she was a convincing victress in her only outing on firm ground, earning a BSF of 70.4. The two runners who finished directly behind her were victorious when next in action, elevating their speed figures by an average of four points each. Jock is quite chilly these days, but it's good to see this miss landing in a soft spot for her return. #3 CONCERTI goes over the green stuff for the first time, but owns some early speed, and gets juice for the first time while also having blinkers slapped on. Poses a threat if able to catch a flyer. #11 LATEST EDITION has faired decently right here, & pilot has done more than adequately for this outfit. OFF TURF: 1-7-6-16(AE)-8
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 13-69 ( $109.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-4 ( 25% ) Favorite's Win %: 27-69 ( 39.1% ) ( As of Thursday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
