4/21 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#1 MANGIA ate up a bit of ground from the quarter pole to the finish line last time out in completing the superfecta at 10-1, and slides in four slots off of that effort. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #5 QUIESCENT has been freshened up a bit since the third place finish back in February, and takes the biggest drop in the game while possessing the best early speed in the race. Deserving favorite. #2 FIRING FAST is an Indiana bread making her debut in the Big Apple today, and has decent bloodlines. Needn't be much to make an impression here.

#2 QUIET WISDOM put it all together when winning by a pole last time out and that diploma earning effort yielded his best speed figure to date. From a trainer stat perspective, The Toddster is a tight 3 for 4 with locally-based optional sand stock who broke their maidens 26 to 50 days ago. Take a look during the warmups however, as front wraps were added in the most recent. #3 LAND D'ORO showed precipitous improvement in getting his first victory last out, and did such from the 14 hole, which is not easy to accomplish. Bounce is always possible off of that, but we'd be remiss in excluding. #4 BRICK AMBUSH has showed improvement with each passing start, so who quite knows where this one's ceiling is.

#7 RUN DEVIL hasn't gotten her photo taken in more than 13 months, but her best work has come at this trip and over this trip, & finds herself at her lowest level to date. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Rudy Rod is a hot hot hot 7 for 9 with locally based mid level female dirt entrants off L/O's of 21 to 34 days ( ridden by this jock ), and the ROI for that study is $5.40. #2 JOLLY MISS JILL has the best chance of upsetting the apple cart based on the decent third place finish two spots behind a next out in victress back on the 4th. #6 VEGAS WEEKEND -- uncoupled entry mate with the above -- has the board in three of her last four and owns a decent ledger at today's distance of ground.

#6 APURO is woefully underlaid at 1/2 here, but is dropped in class for the second straight time and has the blinkers removed in today's third off the layoff spot. Logical, but man oh man that price. #3 PAPPOU'S LAUGH hasn't been in action since before Christmas, but is another one sliding down the ladder while having Lasix and eye cups affixed for the first time. Factor if sound and fully cranked up. #1 PICCOLO DIAVOLO overcame some trouble to pick up 12% of the pot three fortnights back, and draws snugly today.

#5 LI'L LANG has yet to start on the gramma, but we've often found that dirt speed can carry a long way when trying the green stuff for the first time. Colt comes in off of back-to-back career best Beyers, and lone sibling to try the turf lost by less than two lengths in his lone sod sprint. Slight edge with no first draft eliminations here. #7 SLAMMING GOLD is another one in uncharted waters, but has decent bloodlines for the stuff, and the pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we always like to see. #11 ICY FLAVOR was a stumblin' and a bumblin' last time out, unseading the rider, but has done splendid things on the turf to date, and must be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 6-10-1-13(MTO)-4

#1 AUNT YOLA got a little bit better in her secondary engagement, and sheds 2 lb's while moving in five post positions off of that effort. The three returnees from said affair finished first, second, and fourth when next in action, and this one could be sitting on another goodie if able to get a tidier sojourn. #5 FIVE  TO TWO has yet to miss a superfecta, and who are we to rock that boat? #4 EKWANOK has been beset by back to-back layoff lines, but overcame some trouble to lose by just a bit over three lengths in one of them, and the pilot from that day returns.

And then there's #6 MARVELOUS MAUDE ! This lightly raced 6 yr old, hasn't been in action in nearly a full annum, but owns two wins and a third place finish from as many starts off a sabbatical, and you have to love a mare that's $7,500 bred animal having banked $375,000 to date. Mild choice in a feature that's tough to get a hold of. #5 SILVER SKILLET is another one who's been in absentia for a while, but we like her consistency and is quite playable. #3 SPIRIT AND GLORY is one of three in third off the layoff jammies, and has a fair amount of back class.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-7(MTO)-3-5-2

As usual for this time of year, yet another turf event with lots of possibilities. We're going to use one of our favorite angles in selecting the #6 GLINT at 20 to 1. Although he may not look like much on paper, we love fading sand sprinters who are going long on the turf for the first time, as not only do they have a tendency to get neglected at the windows, but can often get brave on the front end if able to relax and set uncontested fractions. Aside from that being the case here, ( as well as a 7 lb. reduction in the weight department ) good guy Bobby Ribaudo -- 8% day today -- is it crisp three of five with sod starters of breaks of 4 weeks or less who are not getting the wonder drug. The winners paid $15, $18, and $10, and there is a subcategory of two for two at this level. Bombs away! #8 KICK A BUCK ( a line that Paul Newman says in 'Cool hand Luke' when playing cards ) gave a solid account of himself when getting sawed off at the onset to the Hallandale debut two months ago, before closing out the exacta. Tomlinson and tells us the result that day was not an aberration, and how can you leave this one out of the mix? #4 BLACK DIAMOND went from a 50 to a 68 from his first turf try to the next, so who really knows how good he is over the stuff? Live chance in today's third off the shelf jamboree.  OFF TURF: 2-12-6-3-4

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout