Closing week.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #4 Smokie Eyes Race 8 - #4 Turriga
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Lucency | 2nd -Wanna Winna | 3rd -Chalky Cat |
We start out the week with an opener containing no first draft eliminations, and will side with the #6 LUCENCY. Colt had no palpable excuse for the poor effort last time out, and promptly has the white flag run up for the first time. The good news though, is that this 19% outfit quadruples said batting average with locally based mid-level sand stock who missed the money less than 38 days ago. They're three of four in that regards ( $7 x 2 and $5 ), and found the line first directly in front of the next out winner the only time he was last to load. #2 WANNA WINNA is a consistent sort who has a penchant for hitting the superfecta, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic, which shows this clan at 6 for 15 w/Aqueduct male dirt dashers at this level who hit the board less than 40 days in the rear ( $3.35 ROI ). Could do with any pace setup. #1 CHALKY CAT has hit the tri in his last quartet, and sheds 3 lb.'s while sliding in five slots. Takes the mandatory hike in class after being snagged for a quarter at the end of march. NOTE: AS OF 5:15 THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS OF 10:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Everyoneloveslinda | 2nd -Proud Foot | 3rd -Starship Defiant |
These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 EVERYONELOVESLINDA has been a part of the triple in her last six starts on the brown stuff, and went coast to coast like butter and toast the only time she was in a third of the layoff situation on the main. Jockey's but a head short of being two for two aboard this one, and gal has done excellent work at today's distance of ground. Logical. #4 PROUD FOOT is a fairly consistent mare, who's best work has come beneath the seagulls. Should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #3 STARSHIP DEFIANT has completed the trifecta in her last triad, and who do we to rock that boat ? NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Moonlit Weekend | 2nd -Leadership Ability | 3rd -First Class Cat |
#1 MOONLIT WEEKEND put it all together to procure the sheepskin last time out, and either appreciated the big drop, or running without the wonder drug for the first time. Gal is facing no world beaters in her first try in the land of winners, but will have to work out a good trip from today's inside placement. #3 LEADERSHIP ABILITY is a bit of a fragile sort, and right off the bat, having been eased last time out, it would behoove you to take a looksie during the warm-ups. She's one of two off of a break in the action, and rates a chance if sound and fully cranked up. #6 FIRST CLASS CAT has done nothing but improve over each passing start from a speed figure perspective, and was a well clear runner up in a near identical placement back in mid March.
| Race 4 | 1st -Rocket and Roll | 2nd -Candy Tycoon | 3rd -Gut Feeling |
#6 ROCKET AND ROLL returned off a bit of a freshening to go all the way when made available for purchase for the first time early when the month, and ended up in a different barn afterwards for all his efforts. 4 year old is now two or four in Queens, and 15% boss man is 9:4-2-1 with sand starters who won less than 35 days in the past at ten to one less. The winners in that study came back $19, $14, and $11, and the repeat is well within reach. #4 CANDY TYCOON has been camera shy for nearly 2 years, but has done well when making a second left, and may be a bit of an overlay in this spot. #5 GUT FEELING has score in half of his last eight afternoon treks to the front side, and owns the sort of declining record we like to see in this zip code 11: 4-2-0. NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 5 | 1st -Lavon | 2nd -Scoring Chance | 3rd -SHIGEKO |
#6 LAVON outran her odds quite nicely when a lively runner-up against what we would consider slightly somewhat tougher competition back on 4/7, and goes inside to outside this afternoon. Barn only wins with 5% of their stock, but they picked up the lion's share with both dirt runners they've entered off of breaks of less than a month, with returns of $4 and $10. Good to see Romero having a solid stand and getting some recognition. #1 SCORING CHANCE hasn't been seen since the end of last year, but was a snappy victress the only time she set her tootsies on a fast track, and barn knows how to have them ready for the comebackers. #3 SHIGEKO has done her best work at this distance, and recently placed behind a next out winner. Must include. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 SMOKIE EYES
| Race 6 | 1st -Spooky Lady | 2nd -Revalita ( Fr ) | 3rd -Rhombique |
#1 SPOOKY LADY hasn't faced the starter since turkey time, but said race resulted in a snappy win when going two turns on the gramma. Rudy Rod Runner has a nice overall mark on this course, and could go all the way if able to set some comfortable splits. Meek selection that's tough to decipher. #3 REVALITA (FR) hasn't been in action since Hector was a pup, but lost by less than a length behind two next out winners the only time she came back off a sabbatical, and is now in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time. #5 RHOMBIQUE rounds out the top three. OFF TURF: 1-2-1A(MTO)-3-8(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 5:19 P.M., DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-6-3. NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -George's Voce | 2nd -Lake Abanakee | 3rd -Big Hazel |
#4 GEORGE'S VICE has finished in the back half of the pack over her last duet, but on the whole is 2 fer 3 on a local glib surface, with both of those wins coming beneath today's pilot. From a trainer stat point of view, this barn is 3-6 with Aqueduct based allowance dirt entrants ridden by Cancel at 12 to 1 or less. The winners came back $9, $15, and $14, and we'll give this miss one more shot. #5 LAKE ABANAKEE looked professional in winning first time out, and the Tomlinson figure tells us that the result that afternoon was likely not an aberration. Winning second time out against winners is never any easier spot, but this is sort of an easy bunch, so we'll give her a shot to do just that. #2 BIG HAZEL was given a little bit of a break after completing the exacta back in mid January, and we like that she is protected against the purchase this afternoon.
| Race 8 | 1st -Tongue Twister | 2nd -Heavenly Gorl | 3rd -Capital Spending |
#9 TONGUE TWISTER was a solid runner up finisher when getting home working papers back in the fall, and now catches firm ground for the first time while also getting the "Big L". Obviously we like the draw, and jock/trainer combo have done better together than apart. #7 HEAVENLY GIRL is another who picked up 20% of the pot first time out, but that was quite some time ago, so we'll keep beneath today. #1 CAPITAL SPENDING has a couple of decent morning moves on display, and is as good as any for the show dough in a wide open nightcap. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 TURRIGA fills the bill, as Bond has anything but the Goldfinger when it comes to those fitting today's criteria, as he's a woeful 1 for 23 in that regards. NOTE: AS OF 10:45, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 11(AE)-9-7.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 20-102 ( $140.90) Beatable Favorites: 1-5 ( 20% ) Favorite's Win %: 31-77 ( 40.3% ) ( As of Thursday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
