Decent day for us here yesterday with a pair of chalky winners, a $634 Triple Box, a $30 cold Triple, four Exacta Boxes of $81, $15, $18 & $7, and a successful "Beatable Favorite", as we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Practical Miss Race 8 - #8 Roagna NOTE: AS OF 10:44, RACE 1 DOES NOT HAVE A BEATABLE FACORITE.
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Dramatic Effect | 2nd -Montauk Mystique | 3rd -Teresa |
#5 DRAMATIC EFFECT has ( for this allotment ) a decent collection of Beyer speed figures, & new shot caller adds blinkers for the first time today; an appreciable jockey change is in play as well. Mild choice in an opener with but one first draft elimination. #4 MONTAUK MYSTIQUE has partaken in the superfecta over her last octet, but as this one has burned a little bit of money at times, we'll relegate to the unders once again -- especially given her penchant for troubled trips. #6 TERESA has completed the triple in half of her six outings over a glib surface, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 PRACTICAL MISS NOTE: AS OF 10:44, RACE 1 DOES NOT HAVE A BEATABLE FACORITE. NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Youbetterbejoking | 2nd -Solo In Paris | 3rd -Agility |
#2 YOUBETTERBEJOKING is showing a decent "Z" pattern from the most recent, as the gelding lost 3 and 3/4 lengths from the quarter pole to the half, before gaining a whopping 12 and 1/4 from that point to the line. 4 year old has done his best work at today's distance of ground, and slides in two slots off said race. #1 SOLO IN PARIS hasn't done much to get the heart thumping over his last handful, but found the line first the last time he was entered for 25k or less, and should be able to save a bit more ground today than in the 4/11 heat. #3 AGILITY was kept in jail after the claim two back, and showed decent mettle when returning in a near identical spot about a month and a half later. There was improved early speed shown that day, and with one only zippy sort signed on, rates a chance if able to get to the top and set some fractions early on. AS OF 5:29 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.
| Race 3 | 1st -Seeking Unity | 2nd -Proven Hope | 3rd -Reserve Currency |
#6 SEEKING UNITY was a lively runner up in this race a month ago, and off of that race alone, deserves your respect. Mild choice in a tough deal to decipher. #4 PROVEN HOPE had no palpable excuse for the next to last effort back on March 15th, but owns a win and a showing from his only two tries when going from one turn to two, and goes from Harkie to a Hall of Famer today. Recognize the fact that four comebackers from the last outing, yielded a cumulative 4:2-1-0 record in their subsequent three starts, with an average speed figure improvement of one point per. #5 RESERVE CURRENCY lost by just a sliver in his only two turn attempt, and despite being out of prison after the March 8th snag, is protected against being bought once again this afternoon. Pre-claim pilot returns, which is something we always dig.
| Race 4 | 1st -Kerry | 2nd -Lady Mia ( Fr ) | 3rd -Risk Free |
#2 KERRY hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but was an honest runner-up in her only turf dash off a sabbatical, digs this course and trip ( as the 3:1-1-1 mark belies ), and if you can see your way clear to drawing lines through the stakes attempts along with the the dirt tries, then what you have is a solid 6:3-2-1 boxscore. One of those wins came the only time she paired up with today's pilot on the gramma, and rates a big shot today. #1 LADY MIA (FR), went all the way in her only start on firm ground, and has a crisp three or four mark at today's trip. #5 RISK FREE is a notorious nibbler ( 25:1-10-7 ), but it's encouraging to see Javy take the mount. OFF TURF: 1-2-4-5-6
| Race 5 | 1st -Printrack | 2nd -Capone | 3rd -Mister J T |
#2 PRINTRACK has done sensational work for Rudy Rod since the claim at the end of last August, as this bay boy has gone 7:4-3-0 during that time, and is the poster boy of how you can rake in money in these starter races. 16:6-7-0 mark at today's distance of ground is a groovy one at that, and we see the race as going directly through him. #3 CAPONE showed true grit when coming again to get up by a honker versus slightly softer last out, and ended up in a different barn afterwards for all his efforts. Building digs the trip and strip, and outfit has done well this year with limited stock. #7 MISTER J T was claimed out of a disappointing effort on the 21st of March, but there's no scary drop in today's third off the bench engagement, and note that the last victory came beneath. Eligible to rebound. AS OF 10:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -Walley World | 2nd -Carson's Run | 3rd -Works for Me |
We don't have the best of reads on this featured race, so exercise a little caution. #6 WALLEY WORLD has been beset by back-to-back layoff lines, but closed out the exacta directly behind a next out victor in one of them, and has not been worse than second in any race in which he wasn't interfered with. Franco gets back on today, and we like this one's ability to stay close to the pace, or rate just a bit off of it. #2 CARSON'S RUN has been in absentia since finishing in the back half of the pack in the Breeders' Cup, but had improved with each passing start just prior to that, & is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #3 WORKS FOR ME nearly went all the way at 17 to 1 in his sole turf try, but have some mixed signals here, as he may have out ran his pedigree a bit that day. OFF TURF: 1-3-2-4-5
| Race 7 | 1st -Clem Lebine | 2nd -Joker Boy | 3rd -Winning Drive |
#10 CLEM LEBINE didn't show a heck of a lot when returning off a bit of a freshening, but after doing a deep dive, we see that he's 6:2-2-0-2 in second off the bench jamborees, which is statistically better than all his other outings. 8yr. old war horse makes his 50th start today, and in a bit of an anomaly does such while getting blinkers for the first time. Factor that in with coming in at his lowest level to date, as well as having fared well when breaking from the outermost two slots, and we'll give this one a shot at what may be a decent offering for a barn that is hard to get good value on. #3 JOKER BOY outran his 65 to 1 offering in the most recent, and as he had been a bit out of form in the four starts prior to that, perhaps he could be sitting on a decent effort @ double-digit odds once again. #2 WINNING DRIVE has been a part of the super in four of his last five, and is good as any for the show dough. NOTE: AS OF 5:33 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. AS OF 10:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Stella Mars | 2nd -Can't Fool Me | 3rd -Succulent |
After finishing in the back half of the pack in her three starts to close out 2023, #9 STELLA MARS undergoes a major barn transformation for today's return, and gets an upgrade in the saddle as well. Six year old has done decent work at today's distance, and there are a few solid morning moves on display for the comebacker. Slight edge. #4 CAN'T FOOL ME has been away since turkey time, but owns a win right here, and jockey/trainer combination fare better in tandem that apart. #7 SUCCULENT hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but shedrow does well enough with returnees of this sort, and should be left in the mix. OFF TURF: 3-6-5-8-1 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 ROAGNA NOTE: AS OF 5:37 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. AS OF 10:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 9 | 1st -Scherzando | 2nd -All Good Here | 3rd -Bettrluckythangood |
#5 SCHERZANDO ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is officially a professional maiden these days, but that being said, it's difficult to ignore the fact that he is on a 6:M-4-1 over the green stuff, with most of those efforts coming beneath today's jock. You may not be getting huge odds on this one, but they should still be honest enough to take a swing. #1 ALL GOOD HERE apparently hasn't been all good, as he's been away since last July. We like that there is no scary drop for this cheaply bred animal, however, and recognize that the career best numero came after a hibernation. New gelding would be no surprise. #4 BETTRLUCKYTHANGOOD has been in the money in both sod starts thus far, and is another sensible selection despite coming in off a layoff. OFF TURF: 10-2-8-9-7 AS OF 11:00, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 25-118 ( $248.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-8 ( 12.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 45-118 ( 38.1% ) ( As of Saturday afternoon )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
