Closing Day today, as we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Life Changer
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Alpha Sonny | 2nd -Mam's Dream | 3rd -Qorowke |
This triad should suffice for all our rolling action. #4 ALPHA SONNY ( who should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there ) showed improved speed last time out, and even encountered a little bit of trouble before fading to fifth that day. Gelding is facing no world beaters here, and iss a threat to go all the way if able to set uncontested splits. #6 MAMA'S DREAM is another one who has some early zip, and takes the biggest drop in the game which is of some high relevance, as he was a snappy and well clear runner up the last time made available for purchase. #3 QOROKWE ( a place in Botswana ) has ( for this allotment ) a fair collection of speed figures, and may grab a slice.
| Race 2 | 1st -South Street | 2nd -Morning | 3rd -Mudville Nine |
#6 SOUTH STREET was taken seven wide in a five horse field ( Nurse !! ) last time out, but still managed to get up in time at the level just underneath this one. It's been a long drink of water between tallies, but we feel a repeat as well within reach, as Jacobson is a perfect 3 for 3 with dirt dashers who won less than 17 days ago at 9 to 2 or less. The winners came back $8, $3, and $4, and this one could do with any type of pace set up. #2 MORNING CUP has been away since the fall, but posted decent figaros in both dirt starts after a sabbatical, & recognize that the lone win came right here. From a Formulator point of view, barn is three of six with locally based mid level dirt entrants who scored in a race claimed from > 50 days back. #1 MUDVILLE NINE is 3:2-0-1 at today's distance of ground, and was a lively runner up the only time he was first to load.
| Race 3 | 1st -Leading Contender | 2nd -Lord Captain | 3rd -Bendoog |
#2 LEADING CONTENDER has partaken in the exacta in six of seven two turn events, with a large chunk of them coming right here. Logical yes, but this lightly raced 5 year old has lost the last four times being sent off as the public choice, so while we'll be using, it's with a touch of trepidation. #6 LORD CAPTAIN went all the way against what we would consider to be a slightly tougher grouping last time out, posting his second best speed figure to date. Of course, we love the declining mark of 15:6-3-0. #1 BENDOOG returned off of freshening to gamely best N1X foes right here 22 days in the past, and as he was an honest runner up the only time in a second off the layoff deal, we'll toss in the mix.
| Race 4 | 1st -M B's Munning | 2nd -Little Luca | 3rd -Amundson |
#7 M B'S MUNNING down the lane. #2 LITTLE LUCA came back after a two month respite to make every call of winning one versus Empire breds, and as this fellow recently fared well in a second off the layoff try, we wouldn't be surprised to see another goodie. #1 AMUNDSON is positively a win machine, having found the line first in one third of his 36 afternoon treks to the front side, and slides in five slots off the recent score. We see a 3:1-0-1 record when loading first, but will need to find a seam late in the game. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 LIFE CHANGER doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 5/2 ?
| Race 5 | 1st -Timed | 2nd -Capital Gal | 3rd -Starry Midnight |
#4 TIMED has been kept in jail since being snagged for a double saw buck two and a half months ago, but trainer calls on their go to rider for today's return, which is encouraging. Historically, this one has a win and three placings from just as many starts off the pine, and owns a fair mark at the trip and over the strip. #7 CAPITAL GAL ( cross entered on Saturday, so check the changes ) is a rare "first off a nickel claim from Turfway Park" entrant, and makes his Aqueduct return without eye cups for the first time in a while. Price play. #5 STARRY MIDNIGHT didn't show much in the first off the claim start for Jimmy Ferraro, but is back at relatively the same level from the showing two back, and has always historically been better on a fast track that one with moisture in it. Jockey/Trainer combo have been potent, and we'll incorporate.
| Race 6 | 1st -Sweet Rebecca | 2nd -Living Magic | 3rd -Miss Motley |
#2 SWEET REBECCA was privately purchased after a visually impressive win right out of the box down in Hallandale Beach last month, and obviously, she couldn't end up in a better barn. It's good to see T-Gaff come up for the mount, and gal is a mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 LIVING MAGIC has a bunch of back class, and we love how she doesn't need to bring her track with her, as she has raced on six different ovals from as many outings. Chance to rebound getting back on a firm course. #4 MISS MOTLEY ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection ) was another one who looked good winning at first asking at Oldsmar, and the bloodlines tell us the result that day was likely not an aberration. OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-4-8-2-6
| Race 7 | 1st -Storming Chrome | 2nd -Kan't Beat The Rock | 3rd -Leonids |
#7 STORMING CHROME bested half the field at 30-1 in his Big Apple debut a month ago, but was on a 4:2-2-0 run just prior to that, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic today. Over the last 60 months, De Paz is De Man when it comes to his locally based allowance dirt dashers off breaks of 50 days or less. He's a crisp five of six in that regards and just look at the prices: $17, $20, $10, $5, and $3. #9 KAN'T BEAT THE ROCK is a steady if unspectacular sort, but comes out of a race where four returnees have rung up a cumulative for 4:2-1-0 mark from their three sui generis followups. We see that this fellow has a win and three placings from his quartet of starts when going into the gate last, and there actually maybe a touch of value here. #1 LEONIDS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but is one for two at today's distance of ground, and is a factor of sound and fully cranked up.
| Race 8 | 1st -Upside Potential | 2nd -Mischievous Angel | 3rd -Yarrow |
Difficult race to grasp a hold of here, so tread lightly. #6 UPSIDE POTENTIAL has exactly that, as this bay boy replicated the snazzy maiden win when going all the way against starter competition in the follow up. That's never an easy thing to accomplish, and as he is just as equally bred for the green as the brown, we see no reason the hat trick can't be completed in this spot. #10 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL has been MIA since finishing in the back half of the pack up at Saratoga, but gets blinkers for today's comeback attempt, and as he picked up the lion's share the only time he was on a firm course, will toss in. #4 YARROW is another one who's been away for quite some time, but has yet to miss a superfecta off a L/O, and fared quite well in his lone pairing w/today's pilot. OFF TURF:14(MTO)-4-13(MTO)-3-9
| Race 9 | 1st -Be of Courage | 2nd -Ez Roll | 3rd -Gem Mint Ten |
#4 BE OF COURAGE was given the winter off after a flat performance back in December, but that's common for this one, and it's a good sign to see Castellano come back aboard, as the lone victory occurred while he was at the helm. May be overlooked parimutually because of the winless connections, but was doing fine work on the verde at the end of last year, and we like a few of the workouts shown in preparation for today's return. #10 EZ ROLL has done nothing but improve with each passing start, and gets the miracle drug for today's first start against winners. Logical, but leaving beneath because of the chilly jock. #2 GEM MINT TEN closes out our day, week, month and meet here. As always, we want to thank our loyal readers at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Yonkers Raceway, and Capital OTB for your continued patronage. See y'all Thursday for the start of the Spring/Summer stand !! OFF TURF: 1-8-2-12-13(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 6:28 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 12-2-10.
Aqueduct ( Spring ): 28-127 ( $261 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-9 ( 11.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 52-127 ( 41% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
