5/9 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Nice day for us here on Sunday with the following:

--Two profitable winners

--Six Rolling Doubles of $10, $24, $13, $25, & $56 x 2 

-- Five Rolling Pick Threes of $63, $61, $52, $167 & $193

--An Ice Cold $72 Triple

--A cold $32 Exacta

--A $13 Quinella Box

...and we have a flat bet profit after the Opening Week.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#3 SHIRL'S DELIGHT seems to change trainers like you and I change our socks, but she's been giving good accounts of herself since the fall, and is eligible to do the same once again in today's third start off the bench. From a Drf Formulator standpoint, Maker is three for eight with maiden special weight dirt stock in this zip code, who hit the board 20 to 50 days ago and are getting Lasix. The winners came back $4, $11, and $10, and we'll give this one a slight edge. #5 SAVE TIME was freshened up just a touch heading into the most recent, and although she burned a bit of bread that day, displayed a tad of improvement in the speed figure department. Logical, given the connections. #1 GIOISO overcame a bit of trouble to finish an even third when beginning her working life down in Hallandale beach, and can move forward off of that effort.

#3C MANDATORY shoots for the grand slam today, and after beginning his career on a one for 20 streak, has amazingly turned the corner in his last troika. Aside from the solid numeros, this one is supported by a nice trainer stat which has Kimmel as being five for eight with dirt dashers who won 34 to 50 days in the rear that are five to one or less. There's a return on investment of more than $3.25 in that regards, and the race goes through this fellow. #1 SPUN AND WON is an extremely consistent critter who has found the line first both times when breaking from the inside, and is another backed by a good trainer stat. Over the last 60 months, Jacobson is 7:4-2-1 w/Ozone Park based optional sand sprinters who crashed the fiesta 20 to 50 days back that are beneath the 6-1 watermark. #2B EMERALD FOREST didn't show much when being wheeled back in a week in his first start off the purchase, but that race has since yielded two next out winners from three starters, and must be left in the mix.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11 ( Make a wish !! ), DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#2 ISN'T SHE KHOZY made her first dirt start a winning one, and accomplished such of an elongated absence. Blinkers were added that day, and while a regression is always possible in a first try against winners scenario, along with the second time equipment change, we'll make her a mild edge versus a suspect allotment. #6 DON'T LISTEN has yet to miss an exacta and who are we to rock that boat? #4 LOW SOCIETY has done well on a fast track, and is now entered at the price claimed from November, after earning a good bit of money back from that day; Jockey/Trainer combo have done quite well here in the last couple of years.

#7 WANNA WINNA was a bit of a disappointment last time out, and is now dropped a few pegs in being entered for a quarter. Best work has occurred over a local glib surface, and obviously, we like the draw. #6 FRIDAY I'M IN LOVE only bested one in his first try against winners, but that's never an easy spot, and the number basically replicated that of the maiden breaker just prior. Seems properly spotted this afternoon. #4 FIGHTING BACK regressed in the return, but is another who appears to be at a suitable level for his second start off the absence.

#10 DIAMOND STATUS hasn't been seen since a cowboys birthday, but aside from the disappointing effort in that final affair, had a win and a couple of placings just prior. The Beyers garnered that day were the three best of her career, and this chestnut gal is showing some nice morning moves for today's comebacker. From a trainer stat aspect, Carlito has his way with sod starters or breaks of 68 days or more at 20-1 or less, as he's 5:3-1-1 with that sort, w/ payouts of $8, and $5 x 2. Big shot is ready to rumble. #8 CRIMSON PRINCESS is sent up from Florida off of three decent efforts, and drops in class a bit while picking up the meet's leading rider. #7 ANNILEATE outran her odds quite nicely when showing early speed before completing the triple on the sand back on April 11th, & if you want to prorate that best dirt deal to her finest turf performance, then you come up with a number that makes her quite competitive in the spot.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-10-2-5-14(MTO)

There are a couple of solid trainer statistics in play for this race, so let's get to them directly. #7 OBRIGAGDA will be led over by a shot caller who has won all three times with an Aqueduct based dirt runners at this level who missed the board 12 to 41 days ago, with payouts of $7 X 2 and $11. #1A JACKIE THE JOKER comes in off a lifetime best effort, and Jimmy Ferraro ( 8% day to day ) nearly quintuples that rate with Aqueduct dirt sprinters who crashed the party 14 to 41 days in the past at 9-1 or less ( females ). He's 14 of 38 with that sort, and has an ROI of $2.79. #5 SELF ISOLATION has the sort of declining record we like to see, and was photogenic the last time she had a for sale sign attached to her butt.  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#7 KUCHAR is an extremely consistent sort, ( as the 13:3-3-1 mark belies ) and 5 yr old gets a touch of class relief today, while exiting a race where one who finished in front of him returned a victor, upping the figaro in the process. In Prat we trust ! #5 UNBRIDLED BOMBER positively adores it here ( 4 for 10 ) and gets Irad back in the irons, which aside from the obvious, is highly relevant as he guided him to a win and a third in their lone pairings. #3 TABEGUACHE was a lively runner up in this race on the 21st of March, and we see no reason to dismiss in the spot with a 7 lb. reduction in weights

We land on Carlos Martin once again in today's finale with #10 DUNE ROAD. This fellow was given a bit of a break after finishing last at the end of February, but goes over the lawn for the first time today which is fine by us. Over the last 260 weeks, the just mentioned bossman is 4:3-1-0 with those going long on the lawn off absences of 59 to 77 days, at 83 to 1 or lower. The winners paid $8 and $5 x $2, and Romero gets on board, as he's had himself a nice year so far. #5 PETROLO is another trying the sod for the first time, and could perk up in today's third start off the shelf. #3 NOBLE HUNTSMAN was positively grisly in the last, but homebred now has the white flag run up on him in being up for grabs this afternoon. Price play.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-15(MTO)-8-9-1   NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #11(AE) WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 8-36 ( $72.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% )  Favorite's Win %: 11-36 ( 30.6% )( As of Thursday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )  Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7665-20444( 37.5% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4188-20908 ( $35,411.40 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7808-21030( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.7% takeout