5/10 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Profitable hat trick for us yesterday, as we add to our positive R.O.I. for the stand. 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

Difficult opener to decipher on tap here, but will side with the #6 RICHARD AVENUE. Bay Colt went for nearly six times the stud fee at Saratoga last year, and comes in today toting a top 10% gate move a week ago for this. While the Tomlinson for the distance is still unproven, we see that one member of the family tree scored it first asking, with two getting the job done second time out, and the remaining three winning in their third event. Obviously, we like the draw as well. #5 PHOEBEINWONDERLAND must be left in the mix given this trainers penchant for winning early, along with the crisp morning moves. #4 VAMONOUS VAMONOUS has a nicely tucked away gate move on April for today's lid lifter and is a half to a one for two dirt runner, as well as a current day critter who is two for five over the stuff. Not hopeless.

#5 CAGE MATCH is a "Double Beyer Fig" play, drops a bit in class, and switches from Gomez to Irad. Down the lane. #7 BETTER GO GO GO has the best chance of upsetting the apple cart this afternoon, based on the daylight clear runner-up versus cheaper last out, and switching from an apprentice to a journeyman. Recognize the fact that this lightly race 5 year old has gone 56-67-74 in his three one turn sand starts thus far, so who knows where he's ceiling is in that regards. #1 MR. PAPAGIORGIO had some trouble at the onset when beginning his working life three weeks ago, but it's confidently moved up the ladder a few pegs, and can pick up some pieces if able to have a tidy onset.  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO A KEY SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-1-7.

#1 SISTER LINDA was a well clear runner up when spotted for a dime 19 days in the rear, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. Bay mare has done her best work at today's distance of ground, has an 11:3-2-0 mark at the dx., and if able to get a seam, should mow them down in the lane. #7 MERAVIGLIOSO showed little in the most recent, but won both starts when made available for purchase for Jimmy Ferraro, and totes her lightest impost to date. Note the 3:1-1-0 mark when last to load on a track labeled fast. #5 JOEY THE FISH has done fine work beneath the seagulls, and could spice things up beneath.

We really don't have the best of reads on this heat, so tread lightly. #1 MALLEYMOO hasn't been seen since mid October, but lost by only a length at 8-1 in his loan turf route off of a break in the action, and picked up the lions share in his one outing when first to load. Gal makes her ninth start for her fourth different trainer today, but he knows what he's doing, and gets our favorite jock in the irons. #3 SWOOP TO FINISH has been away since getting up by a honker down in Hallandale Beach at the end of January, and is logical off of that if sound and fully cranked up. #4 TAMING THE TIGRESS goes dirt to turf and one turn to two in making her first start off the claim by Toscano, and as she has done okay over the stuff, we'll toss in,  in what should be a fair offering.  OFF TURF: 5-10(MTO)-6-4-2   NOTE: AS OF 11:25, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-10-5.

#7 BOSUN was a lively runner up when getting his working papers on the 4th of April, and the decent pedigree tells us that the result that day was likely not a fluke. Has an ideal draw once again, and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #2 Z DANCER just may have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart this afternoon, as he's closed out the exacta in two of his last three, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman, who's been turning on things around of late. #5 BOOM BOOM THUNDER showed precipitous improvement from the bow to the follow up, and gets a substantial upgrade in the saddle this afternoon. Not hopeless.

#7 FACTUALLY CORRECT has been alternating losses and wins over his last septet, so today should be a score right ? If only the game were that simple. While those races were mostly on the dirt, this fella has done fairly well in turf engagements over firm ground. Additionally, from an itty bitty sampling, Rudy Rod has one with both dirt to turf sprinters at this level who missed the board off of this kind of break. The winners came back $7 and $5, and we see that this one exits a race where two out of three comebackers got the job done when next in action. #2 MID DAY IMAGE got up in time to best weaker down in Maryland in his first start after a half'a calendar sabbatical, & while a regression is always possible off of that, we see that this 8 year old horse ( Hang on to those chestnuts, you chestnut ! ) found the line first the only time he was in a second with the layoff spot on the gramma. #1 SENBEI is a bit of a fragile sort, but C-squared knows to have them prepped for the returns, and gelding almost went all the way in one of two turf tries.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:29, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-6-10(MTO).

#5 FOXHOLE returns off a lengthy sabbatical to once again pick up 20% of the pot in a near identical spot about a month and a half ago. Irad, who was on board for the overture, grabs the reins once again and we're expecting some improvement out of this one with a cleaner trip. #6 REMEMBER THE CHIEF by no means disgraced himself when completing the triple at first asking, and after we saw that he was a little bit green and climbing that day, we felt he'd be better going a flat mile -- and here he is! Big time shot here should the above not fire. #8 TRUE CONNECTION has yet to miss the superfecta, and goes one turn over a fast track for the first time. Could be rolling late with any type of hot pace to cut into.   NOTE: AS OF 11:33, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-6-7.

#1 WALK WITH ME showed a bit of a "Z" pattern last time out, when losing nearly five lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining three and a half back from that point to the finish line. Blinkers go on today, and that's probably a smart decision, as this one showed a similar running style in the 2023 finale. Perhaps the hood can keep this chap more focused in the middle stages of the race so she doesn't have to re-rally. Second time Lasix/3rd off the layoff today, and there's a solid Drf Formulator stat in play as well. Underrated and good guy shotcaller David Duggan is a perfect four for four with locally based dirt stock who hit the board 29 to 37 days in the rear that are getting Lasix and blinkers; it's up to Gomez to keep this one engaged. #4 FIVE TO TWO was all out to procure the sheepskin over this oval 20 days in the rear, and you have to admire her overall consistency. #7 SOHANA is another one who has never finished out of the money, and draws ideally while picking up Flavor Flav

#5 HHIRSCH was an honest enough third place finisher when finding a softer grouping down in Oldsmar a bit over a month ago, and is now made available for purchase for the first time. Six different jockey for this one's sixth different surface raced on is a good one in Franco, and we see that both returnees from the aforementioned race came back victorious, improving in the BSF department by an average of 2.5 points. #7 FROZEN FOUR takes the biggest drop in the game for today's return to the races, and completes the "Around the World" treatment while getting the miracle drug and running sans tes-tee-klees for the first time. Obvious threat is ready to go. #1 AZ U CHASE ME has a decent collection of figs for this allotment, is another one taking the plunge.  OFF TURF: 4-9-6-14(AE)-16(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:37, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 13(AE)-3-16(MTO).

Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 11-44 ( $93.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% )  Favorite's Win %: 14-44 ( 31.6% )( As of Friday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )  Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout

Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% ) 

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout