Just a couple of chalky winners yesterday, along with three Exacta Boxes of $40, $93 & $36, along with a $23 Quinella Box, as we're just about at the break even point for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Gun Maestro | 2nd -Union Lights | 3rd - |
Couple of solid DRF Formulator starts to start out the long day, so let's get right to 'em. #4 GUN MAESTRO went coast to coast like butter and toast at the level just below this last time out, posting a career best speed figure in the process. This barn triples there normative 19% batting average with locally based mid level dirt stock who won less than two fortnights back at 5 to 1 or less ( with today's pilot ), as they're 4 of 7 with that type. The ROI for that sampling is $2.70, and a repeat is well within reach. #1 UNION LIGHTS has had seconditis throughout his career 28:2-10-1, but shedrow is 4 of 11 with Aqueduct based dirt stock at this level who hit the board less than a dozen days back at 5-1 or less. The payoffs for that study $4, $12, $10, and $5, and today's jock has some familiarity w/ this one. #5 TEPEU was a game winner the only time he was in a second of the layoff situation, & that's enough reason to keep in the mix.
| Race 2 | 1st -Ten Ten | 2nd -Jingle Jangle | 3rd -Sendera |
#5 TEN TEN all the way. #4 JINGLE JANGLE ( "How about you Lash Larue, do you think you can keep your spurs from jingling and jangling?" ) showed a bit of improvement from her first dirt start to the next, and makes the second start off the break while also getting the wonder drug for the second time today. #2 SENDERA ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection ) adds the eye cups and drops a few pegs.
| Race 3 | 1st -Majestic Arc | 2nd -Quick Hammer | 3rd -Solo in Paris |
#2 MAJESTIC ARC has showed improved speed since being freshened up after the February start, and gets a bit of jockey improvement for today's third start off the bench. Lone wine came at this locale, and we'll make this one a timid selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 QUICK HAMMER was a snappy runner up against cheaper last time out, & draws the outside this afternoon, while owning a win and a third from three starts when doing such. 5/2 maybe a bit short to take on the class hike, but will toss in the mix. #3 SOLO IN PARIS found the line first at this tricky distance last fall, and may land a share today. NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets
& @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in Race 3, #1 will now be our 3rd selection
| Race 4 | 1st -Vettriano | 2nd -Shlomo | 3rd -AELFGAR |
#6 VETTRIANO hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but returns with the Big L for the first time, and new barn does sensational when being handed a runner. Big shot if sound and fully cranked up. #4 SHLOMO -- who should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there -- owns some decent tactical speed and the last buyer posted superseded anything that anyone in a race has put up to date. Deserving favorite. #1 AELFGAR as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 5 | 1st -Seaver | 2nd -Noble Emotion | 3rd - Twenty Six Black |
#10 SEAVER has had his best stuff of late, in missing a three bagger by only a noggin. Lightly raced 5 year old found the line first in his only start at today's distance of ground, and appears to have drawn ideally giving the running style. Mild choice. #7 NOBLE EMOTION has been away for quite some time, but is three or four off in a break off the action, and is entered for his lowest tag thus far. #2 TWENTY SIX BLACK completes our troika of selections who have been in hibernation, but this fella picked up the lion's chair in his only start off a l/o. Always encouraging to see the pre break pilot return. OFF TURF: 4-5-3-1-6
| Race 6 | 1st -Night Effect | 2nd -Debate | 3rd -Andy Cant |
#5 NIGHT EFFECT was extremely gamely when placing in this race on the 27th of April, and as that was the second consecutive improvement when going two turns, we see no reason in excluding. #6 DEBATE is a little bit of a nibbler in Ozone Park, and we'll relegate to the unders for today's first two turn event. #2 ANDY CANT showed solid improvement from a speed figure standpoint when facing winners for the first time and that's never an easy thing to accomplish. Gelding is winless when making that second left, so we will keep beneath.
| Race 7 | 1st -Khafre | 2nd -Allaboutthemoney | 3rd -Six Percent |
#5 KHAFRE overcame a bit of trouble to pick up 12% of the pot directly behind a next out winner in this race three fortnights back, and is now reunited with the pilot of his last victory. From a trainer stat perspective, this barn has a Handal on the situation when it comes to the Aqueduct based mid level dirt stock who hit the board 32 to 50 days in the rear, ridden by Davis. The winners came back $6, $9, and $13, and we'll make this one a tepid selection in a heat with but one first draft tossout. #3 ALLABOUTTHEMONEY drops a bit off off a flat effort, but has done okay at the trip and over the strip. Aside from that, Toscano is three of seven with winners of this ilk off absences of 14 to 41 days ridden by today's helmsman. The winners came back $8 x 2 and $4, and we can see a possible reversal of fortunes today. #2 SIX PERCENT has been camera shy for over 16 months, but Franco sees fit to hop on, and will chunk in.
| Race 8 | 1st -Assume Nothing | 2nd -Operation Torch | 3rd -Torigo |
#6 ASSUME NOTHING didn't show much in his first start on the verde, but we like to give a horse two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances to prove himself. That being said, it's difficult to argue with the fact that this one is a check cashing machine, as well as that five returnees from the last came back to a mass a cumulative two wins, one placing, and one third from four different events. The turf pedigree is fantastic, and we would give anything to get those 10 to 1 morning odds. #7 OPERATION TORCH hasn't been seen since Bijou day, but returns in a slightly better barn, while having an overall decent resume'. Contrary to the above, we think this one is a bit of an underlay. #3 TORIGO has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has improved over his last quintet from a numbers aspect, and may grab a piece. OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-1-4-11(AE)-9
| Race 9 | 1st -Big Pond | 2nd -Imonra | 3rd -Asset Purchase |
#2 BIG POND didn't show much in the Madison, but has been a part of the exacta in all five dirt efforts prior to that. New bossman has an unblemished five for five record with Aqueduct based graded dirt runners ridden by Alvarado, off breaks of more than 4 weeks. #3 IMONRA outran her odds when completing the Ex. in her only stakes try going one turn, and Bobblehead comes up for the mount today. #4 ASSET PURCHASE returned off of nearly a full calendars' layoff to pick up 55% of the purse in besting allowance competition last month, and despite the class hike, we'll nibble at 8-1 with these high profile connections.
| Race 10 | 1st -Fancypants Juliana | 2nd -Beach Cruiser | 3rd -Astonesthrowaway |
#6 FANCYPANTS JULIANA hasn't shown her muzzle since early November, but is one for three off of breaks in the action, and if you prorate both of those turf races from 2022, the adjusted numbers supersede most of what the other ones have been able to put up here. Note that those efforts came without the use of the miracle drug which is now part of the makeup; would be nice to get a little more than the 8-1 offering. #9 BEACH CRUISER played the fade in her first start off the sabbatical, but went coast to coast like butter and toast in her only local turf foray beneath Franco, and gal has to be left in the mix. #8 ASTONESTHROWAWAY was a healthy $28 victress the only time she set her hooves on firm ground, and as we're pretty sure she wasn't fully cranked up for the return engagement, we'll give her a chance to make amends @ double digit odds. OFF TURF: 7-3-13(AE)-5-15(AE) NOTE: AS OF 1:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 11 | 1st -True Myth | 2nd -Opera de Ravel ( Fr ) | 3rd -Chantilly Road |
While we don't mind coupled entries, we disdain taking short priced odds on one, when the half that we like would likely be three times the odds should the other one be scratched. That being said, #1A TRUE MYTH has been away since October 20th, but goes over the green stuff for the first time today, and of the four upstairs members of the family tree that we were able to look at, three of them got their initial turf tally within their first two attempts on the stuff. Note that Lasix is now a part of the makeup. #9 OPERA DE RAVEL (FR) is a bit of a short price given the moderate breeding, but we'll toss in, given the outfit. #5 CHANTILLY ROAD nearly made every call of winning one when trying the blades in late April, and while the bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. OFF TURF: 2-12(MTO)-3-7-5 NOTE: AS OF 4:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 23-90 ( $178.50 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 34-90 ( 37.8% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Big day for us here yesterday, with 5 winners, 3 placings, and 1 show from 11 races, as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least Friday's opener.
--5 Wins ( $9, $3, $7 x 3 ), and one of our placings was 21-1
--Three Ice Cold Doubles of $18, $10 & $19
--Two Cold Pick Threes of $41 & $28
--A $25 Exacta & a $44 Reverse
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Artorius | 2nd -Aggregation | 3rd -Power Seeker |
#1 ARTORIUS returned off a lengthy sabbatical to give a decent account of himself in this race back on April 20th, and as he owns a win and a showing in both second off the layoff engagements, we'll give this lightly raced five year old a big shot here -- especially with Ortiz getting back on. #3 AGGREGATION went coast to coast like butter and toast in both second off the bench starts, has by far done his best work beneath the seagulls, and is the mainger danger to the above. #5 POWER SEEKER comes in off a career best effort from a speed figure standpoint, and can land a share
| Race 2 | 1st -Watch Hill | 2nd -Wafflr | 3rd -Compute It |
#7 WATCH HILL has a propensity for cashing some checks, but on the other hand has burned a touch of bread over time. Gelding gets the miracle drug for the first time this afternoon ( or any afternoon for that matter ) and rates a slight edge in a heat that's tough to decipher. #6 WAFFLR has been freshened up since finishing in the back half of the pack a bit more than 2 months ago, but did quite well in the quartet prior to that, and is a factor if sound despite Donk doing poorly with returns of this sort. #4 COMPUTE IT is a bit of an in and outer, but jockey/trainer combo fare better together than apart, and we'll toss him in the hopper.
| Race 3 | 1st -Startup Mentality | 2nd -Lady Beth | 3rd -No Show Sammy ( GB ) |
| Race 4 | 1st -Seeking Unity | 2nd - Mistical Curlin | 3rd -Bless America |
#1 SEEKING UNITY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) was a gutsy winner versus what we would consider to be a tougher grouping 23 days in the rear, and that victory made it back to back career best figaro's for this one. Best work has come at today's distance, and colt should be no worse than third for all of y'all who like to grind out of show profit. #4 MISTICAL CURLIN overcame a clumsy onset to pick up 12% of the pot last time out, and that race has proven to be a key race, as five returnees have accumulated a 5:3-0-2 mark in their subsequent events. That study was from just four different races, and there was an average Beyer improvement of 5.6 points per runner. Tremendous shot here. #6 BLESS AMERICA is better bred for the turf than the other surfaces he's been running on, and most of those efforts were pretty snazzy. Gets Lasix for today's second off the layoff deal.
| Race 5 | 1st -Outtathe Cloud | 2nd -Our Reward | 3rd -Justheart |
#8 OUTTATHE CLOUD has been MIA since mid October, but gets the miracle drug for the new trainer, who won with his only sod sprinter who had just come into his barn -- with that winter paying 43 smackers. Four yr. old gets the "Big L" for the first time, and by no means disgraced herself when showing early dash in the only turf attempt. #3 OUR REWARD has just moderate turf pedigree, but sometimes we feel that dirt speed can carry over to the grass. Lightly race 5 year old clearly has a few issues, but we'll toss into the mix. #4 JUSTHEART didn't do much to get the pulse racing first time out, but new jockey to the circuit ensures a hearty attempt for the minor spoils. OFF TURF: 11(AE)-4-8-14(AE)-5
| Race 6 | 1st -Awesome City | 2nd -Kan't Beat the Rock | 3rd -Good Reunion |
#1 AWESOME CITY went all the way when tangling with winners for the first time down in Tampa Bay a month and a half ago, and that's something that's definitely not an easy feat. Gelding has improved over all four of his dirt deals, so right off the bat who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn has an unblemished four for four record with freshly purchased dirt dashers who won 35 to 70 days ago, and the winners came back $7, $9, $6, and $12. The more we type... #7 KANT BEAT THE ROCK comes in today off the best turf effort of his career, and if you prorate that to his finest dirt number, what you come up with is something that makes him prominent in this spot. #5 GOOD REUNION shoots for the hat trick today, and being another one who is on a steady improve, we see no reason why it's not well within reach.
| Race 7 | 1st -Emerald Forest | 2nd -Victoria's Wave | 3rd -Lost in Rome |
#1 EMERALD FOREST didn't do much to get the heart thumping last time out, but owns a win, a placing, and a showing in his last three starts with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Obviously, we dig the 35:10-6-4 lifetime "declining" mark, and this J/T tandem are more successful when together than not. Most timid of selections in a race we're not digging. #10 VICTORIA'S WAVE has won four of his last six over a glib surface, and that includes a recent win against similar type. Runner digs the local seagulls & makes all kinds of sense here. #6 LOST IN ROME is an extremely steady sort who is dropped 20% in class off the 3/29 purchase. Top rider gets the call. NOTE: AS OF 4:47 SATURDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS. NOTE: AS OF 11:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Mattingly | 2nd - Feltrinelli | 3rd -Devil in Disguise |
#3 MATTINGLY swung and missed in the comebacker down in Lexington, but was an honest runnerup the only time she set her tootsies on firm ground. Lone second off the shelf jamboree yielded and exacta completing finish at 9-1, and we like today's placement. #2 FELTRINELLI has yet to miss the triple, but we're not quite sure if the all out win may have taken some of the starch out of this one's collar. We'd be silly to exclude, but will keep beneath because of just that question. #6 DEVIL IN DISGUISE ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection, who is also spotted on Saturday ) went from zero to hero to pick up the diploma at first asking down in Hallandale Beach, and could do with some hot splits once again. OFF TURF: 8-6-7-3-4
| Race 9 | 1st -John the Baptist | 2nd -Storm Ready | 3rd -Egypt |
#12 JOHN THE BAPTIST was privately purchased after a strong runner-up finish in the T.B. bow, and although the draw stinks like an old slipper, the Tommy tells us that there is ample room for improvement here. From a Formulator aspect, Hennig is on the mark when getting a turf router for the first time, as he is a near perfect four of five with that sort -- and just look at these prices $13, $9, $10, and $25 !! #8 STORM READY lost by just a couple of lengths in the Florida lidlifter, and gets an upgrade in the irons for today's New York debut. Barn a bit chilly thus far this meet, but as this is a four year old facing some younger competitors, we'd be Silly McGilly in excluding. #9 EGYPT tries the grass in today's third off the shelf spot, and has decent enough pedigree for it to toss in the mix. OFF TURF: 5-15(MTO)-3-13(AE)-4
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 28-101 ( $220 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-101 ( 36.9% )( As of Sunday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Just a chalky three bagger for us here on Sunday, and we're still guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least today's 7th race.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #1 Mucho Mama Mia Race 9 - #11 Moonage Daydream
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Cheval de Guerre | 2nd -Ward entry | 3rd -Dancing Bear |
#6 CHEVAL DE GUERRE was a dead game runner- up when beginning his working life down in Lexington a month ago, and the top flight pedigree for today's trip tells us that the result was not an aberration. There's been an extremely crisp morning move since and Ortiz hops on. Both the #2 AFTER TAXES (IRE) who totes along a bullet gate move for today's lidlifter ) and #2B HONORARARY AMERICAN (IRE) ( who apparently was in company with him for the similar move ) comprise decent factions of the Wesley Ward entry. #5 DANCING BEAR has a maturity edge over all signed on -- being a January foal -- and can land a share. OFF TURF: 1-2-5-1A-2B NOTE: AS OF 10:59 A.M., OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1A-5-3.
| Race 2 | 1st -Gav's Dream Girl | 2nd - Try It Again | 3rd -First Class Cat |
#2 GAV'S DREAM GIRL hasn't been an action since late January, but that effort ended up with a win when going over the dirt for the first time, and brown mare has closed out the Exacta in both starts off a sabbatical. There's some improvement in the training department today, and jockey does better for this outfit than with all other mounts. #3 TRY IT AGAIN faded a little bit when returning off a bit of a freshening, but best work has come beneath the seagulls, and we'll give her a chance to make amends for today's second off the bench deal. #6 FIRST CLASS CAT ( who should we know worse than third for all y'all who like to grind out a show profit ) has been a completely different animal over her last troika, but it would behoove you to take a look at this one during the warmups, as there was a voided claim last time out which is now followed by a drop in class today.
| Race 3 | 1st -Control Temper | 2nd -Divine Cross | 3rd -St. Benedict's Prep |
#6 CONTROL TEMPER got up in time to best slightly weaker on the 11th of April, completing a nice 3:2-1-0 run over her last triad. That win came from an outside placement just like today, and although there was a claim that was voided that afternoon, we're somewhat assuaged by a solid Drf Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months Sharp is exactly that when it comes to his allowance dirt runners who were victorious 38 to 50 days in the past, at 7-1 or less. He's 6 or 13 in that regards, with an ROI of $3.30. #2 DIVINE CROSS has been on the shelf for more than 2 months since the March 15th purchase, but went all the way the last time she returned off of a break in the action, and her finest efforts have come right here. #3 ST. BENEDICT'S PREP tried to run without the jockey last time out, but that's not entirely legal, so we'll give her a chance to get back to the penultimate effort in Keeneland, which was a win versus conditional platers.
| Race 4 | 1st -Investment Process | 2nd -Ms Sedona | 3rd -Mizoula ( Ire ) |
#6 INVESTMENT PROCESS didn't show a whole heck of a lot after being steadied in the Hallandale debut, but the adjusted number came back okay for this allotment, and blinkers are now a part of the makeup. Mild selection. #3 MS SEDONA showed precipitous improvement in the followup, out running her odds quite nicely when closing out the exacta at 13-1 @ KEE. Regression is always possible in a second of the layoff attempt, but recognize the fact that Irad chose this one over the above Chad Brown runner. #8 MIZOULA (IRE) was a snappy runner up the only time she went over firm ground, and could pose a threat if able to get an uncontested lead in this marathon event. OFF TURF: 2-4-6-5-9(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 11:03, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9(MTO)-5-7.
| Race 5 | 1st- Proper Grammar | 2nd -Practical Miss | 3rd -Lady Fortuna |
#2 PROPER GRAMMAR hasn't gotten her photo taken in 25 consecutive races, but didn't have the easiest of trips last time out, and lands in a very soft spot. Price play in the heat that's difficult to decipher. #4 PRACTICAL MISS went coast to coast like butter and toast in the comebacker for good guy Duggan, and has a fondness for this oval. Lone second off the bench engagement was a disappointing one, so we'll leave this miss beneath. #5 LADY FORTUNA finds herself at her lowest level to date and has a hood affixed for the first time. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 MUCHO MAMA MIA
| Race 6 | 1st -Aunt Yola | 2nd -Geopolitcs | 3rd - Dance On Air |
#3 AUNT YOLA nearly went all the way in a similar spot 34 days in the past, and that topped off three races in which she had improved from a speed figure standpoint. Looks like the race goes through her, and she should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #5 GEOPOLITICS was another lively exacta closer in the bow, and although she hasn't been seen since February, the sharp work tab signals readiness for today's return. Looms the mainger danger to the above. #1 DANCE ON AIR as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 7 | 1st -Sell Something | 2nd -Let's Go Big Blue | 3rd -Be of Courage |
#7 SELL SOMETHING hasn't been seen since getting moved up to first just before turkey time, but gelding picked up the lion's share in his only start off a respite, and has a two for six record over this oval. #1 LET'S GO BIG BLUE is another one who's been MIA since the fall, but has also done admirably off of a break in the action, while owning a win and a showing from three starts when beginning from the innermost two slots. #8 BE OF COURAGE got up in time versus allowance foes when coming back from a four and a half month break, giving him his second win on this course. The only time he was in his second off the layoff placement, a 17-1 third place finish was the end result, and we like to see that there was no starch taken out of the collar off his last win, with a 36 flat breeze on the docket. OFF TURF: 9-2-6-4-12(MTO)
| Race 8 | 1st -Duckphat | 2nd -Foxy Cara | 3rd -Echo in Eternity |
These three and no more for our rolling action. #2 DUCKPHAT is a notorious nibbler, but takes what we would consider to be a slight drop in class off the recent showing, and today could be the day to get off the schneid. #1 FOXY CARA posted a career best wet track figure last time out, so if you felt inclined to prorate that to her best number over a glib service, then what you have is a figaro which would put her smack dab in the middle of the mix. #4 ECHO IN ETERNITY has hit the board in her last three outings, and this lightly raced 5 year old fingers prominent once again.
| Race 9 | 1st -Soloshot | 2nd -Solib | 3rd -Mz Big Bucks |
#8 SOLOSHOT nearly blew up the tote board when trying the verde for the first time, as this chestnut gal fell short by only a length at 49 to 1. Obviously, we don't like "Missing the wedding and going to the funeral", but she does in fact have a nice overall resume', and from a limited sampling, this outfit is 2 of 4 with sod sprinters who hit the board less than 53 days ago, @ 60 to 1 or less. The winners came back a hefty $45 & $30, and believe it or not, she may get overlooked at the windows a bit once again. #7 SOLIB comes in today seeking her third straight win, and as she has proven to be better on the turf than the dirt, we'd say it's definitely feasible. Popular item at the claim box has partaken in the superfecta in both second off the layoff deals, and we like this one's ability to send or come from off the pace. #2 MZ BIG BUCKS has been beset by back to back L/O lines, but put forth an honest enough effort when debuting on this oval a bit more than a year ago. OFF TURF: 1-7-6-16(MTO)-8 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 MOONAGE DAYDREAM
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 31-110 ( $233.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 42-110 ( 38.2% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Just about a breakeven day for us here yesterday, as we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #6 Stanley Rough
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -My First Love | 2nd -Trade Secret | 3rd -Diva Banker |
#2 MY FIRST LOVE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in her two starts since being claimed for a quarter, but was ambitiously spotted in both of those heats, and gets an upgrade in the irons for today's drop to her lowest level yet. Horse for the course could perk up. #7 TRADE SECRET has earned six checks from her last seven outings, and drops a peg after a showing and a voided claim. Gal has done okay when last to load, but it would behoove you to take a gander during the warmups. #1 DIVA BANKER may grind out a share. NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -Alpha Sonny | 2nd -Stanley Rough | 3rd -Irie Man |
#1 ALPHA SONNY all the way. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #6 STANLEY ROUGH finished directly behind the above when debuting in that April 28th affair, but had a bit of trouble at the onset, before running a quite greenly. Eligible to improve with Ortiz taking the reins. #4 IRIE MAN as good as any for the show dough.
| Race 3 | 1st -Bob John Ray | 2nd -Jackson Heights | 3rd -Bad Larry |
#6 BOB JOHN RAY showed precipitous improvement when getting a cleaner trip & eye cups for the first time three fortnights back, and while a regression is always possible after a big step forward with an equipment change, the pedigree tells us the result was likely not a fluke. Mild selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 JACKSON HEIGHTS is a bit of a nibbler by nature, as this gelding has closed out the exacta in his last four starts over a glib surface. One of those came in a third off the layoff attempt, and we can't fall to anyone taking a favorable view here. #2 BAD LARRY digs the local seagulls, and they will likely have to grab him by the tail to get the glory.
| Race 4 | 1st -Naughty Destiny | 2nd -Capital Spending | 3rd -Heavenly Girl |
#6 NAUGHTY DESTINY hasn't been seen since the fall, but barn knows how to have them ready for comebackers, and the adjusted figaro from her debut in October puts her in the upper echelon here. Gray gal also gets the wonder drug for the first time, and is a mild choice in a very difficult race to decipher. #2 CAPITAL SPENDING had to jam on the brakes a couple of times when getting her working papers on the 25th of April, but lost by just a length and a half that afternoon, and Flavor Flav, who's been lighting it up here, is called on. #6 HEAVENLY GIRL returned off a lengthy sabbatical to finish in the back half of the pack when taking a decent amount of money last time out, but could move forward in today's second off the shelf engagement. OFF TURF: 8-9-3-4-14(AE)
| Race 5 | 1st -Firsttimeinforever | 2nd -Mim | 3rd -Lakeside Getaway |
#2 FIRSTTIMEINFOREVER has really turned the corner over her last sextet, having partaken in the triple and each and every start. Gal was uncharacteristically tardy to the party in the most recent, but still ended up finishing second beneath today's helmsman. We're seeing this miss as a single for all those ready to mingle. #1 MIM bested half the field at nearly 100-1 after opening up a daylight lead in her first turf route on firm ground. Should be able to do a little bit better with a slightly easier pace. #8 LAKESIDE GETAWAY has been MIA since Turkey Time, but is an obvious factor if able to get back to those last three stars from 2023. OFF TURF: 2-6-16(AE)-5-15(AE)
| Race 6 | 1st -Hours in a Day | 2nd - Apuro | 3rd -Shakin the Belle |
#3 HOURS IN A DAY popped and stopped in the lidlifter down in Hallandale Beach last month, but $150,000 auction purchase can be all yours for just a double sawbuck today. Irad hops on, and the 408 Tomlinson tells us to give this one another chance. #10 APURO has been perfectly kept in jail since the claim on 4/21, and although this notorious money burner did it again that day, we think he has a chance to write the ship versus these. #7 SHAKIN THE BELLE outran his odds quite nicely when placing in the a near identical spot 34 days in the rear, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here.
| Race 7 | 1st -White Palomino | 2nd -Risk Tolerance | 3rd -Legend of Time ( GB ) |
#1 WHITE PALOMINO had a troubled trip in the bow, but ended up having a perfect journey in the followup down in Lexington, when procuring the sheepskin out a 7/2 offering. A graded stakes event is never an easy spot to face winners in for the first time, but we think there may be a little bit of value here given the powerful connections. #3 RISK TOLERANCE grinded it out the maiden win in solid fashion right here 5 weeks ago, and the top flight pedigree says the sky could be the limit with this one. #2 LEGEND OF TIME (GB) was extremely disappointing in his American debut, but found the line first the only time he was in the second off the layoff jammie, and discount this outfit at your own peril. OFF TURF: 1-4-2-7-3
| Race 8 | 1st -Stella Mars | 2nd -Smokie Eyes | 3rd -Determined Lilly |
#3 STELLA MARS put forth a solid effort when getting a big time trainer upgrade out of the Chatterpaul barn last time out, and this 6 year old got up in time in her only second off the bench attempt when going long on the lawn. Blinkers are once again part of the makeup, which just may have this one a bit closer to the pace. #2 SMOKIE EYES has done her best work in Ozone Park, and after stumblin' and a bumblin' in her comebacker, rates a shot to make amends. #5 DETERMINED LILLY has been in absentia since early November, but got her Polaroid taken at 12-1 in her only layoff attempt on the gramma. OFF TURF: 1-2-6-9-5
| Race 9 | 1st -Disappearance | 2nd -Cheeky Tico | 3rd -Candy Tycoon |
#2 DISAPPEARANCE may not appear to have shown much when finishing last at 62-1 three weeks back, but bay boy did in fact outrun his turf bloodlines by a good margin that day. That being said, if you want to prorate said to his best number on the sand, what you come up with is something that puts him in the top tier versus these. Note the bullet work for runner who does his best coming from off the pace. #8 CHEEKY TICO has been in the money in five of his last six, seven of his last nine, and all his wins have come at the Big A. #5 CANDY TYCOON ( who ran against Tiz the Law way back when ) has never seen these depths and can land a slice. NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-8-5.
| Race 10 | 1st -Power Attack | 2nd -Big Prankster | 3rd -Allied Attack |
#4 POWER ATTACK shoots for the three bagger today, and we see it as being well within reach, as this fella has shown some diversity with his three wins being under three different sets of circumstances. The race goes through him. #5 BIG BRANKSTER immolated a bit of baccala when encountering some trouble in the comebacker, but Rosario hops on now, and he guided this one to two game runnerup finishes last fall. #2 ALLIED ATTACK has eye cups slapped on for the first time this afternoon, but may have outran his turf pedigree last out, so we will keep beneath. OFF TURF: 3-1-2-1A-8
| Race 11 | 1st -Jhirsch | 2nd -Frozen Four | 3rd -Your Mission |
#5 JHIRSCH comes in today off a showing behind a next out Victor down in Oldsmar, and despite not having disgraced himself the only time he went over firm ground, this pricey homebred now has the white flag run up in being up for grabs. Logical, but by no means a cinch. #11 FROZEN FOUR has been off for several months, but gets an "Around the World" treatment for today's return -- taking the biggest drop in the game, while losing his procreating abilities, and being in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time. #3 YOUR MISSION has always been a bit of a fragile sort, but has done decently off a layoff, and Castellano sees fit to ride. OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 33-119 ( $239.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-3 ( 66.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 47-119 ( 40% )( As of Saturday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ) 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4129-20204 ($34,313.40) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 459-1706( 27% )Favorite's Win %: 7608-20307( 37.8% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4160-20772 ( $35,132.60 )Beatable Favorites : 469-1752( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7751-20894( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.7% takeout
Decent day for us here yesterday with a pair of winners ( $17 & $5 ), a traditional Late Daily Double of $34, and a Beatable Favorite, as we maintain our flat bet profit for the meet.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Book of Wisdom | 2nd -Shehana | 3rd -Neigh Jude |
#1 BOOK OF WISDOM immolated a bit of baccala when taking the biggest drop in the game last time out, but you can feel free to upgrade that third place finish by approximately 14.2%, as this miss has proven to be that much better on a fast track than one with moisture in it. Her lone 3rd off the bench engagement yielded a third place finisher behind a next out winner, and gal gets the pine for the first time. #8 SHEHANA who bested one last time out in going over the verde for the first time, but now takes the biggest plunge known, and draws ideally. Will take some pounding at the windows, but we are not entirely sold given the low Tommy for today's distance of ground. #3 NEIGH JUDE has been beset by back to back L/O lines, but is another sliding down, and gets an upgrade in the irons to Javy. NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 2 | 1st -He'smyhoneybadger | 2nd -Gun It | 3rd -Synthesis |
#5 HE'SMYHONEYBADGER has always been a popular item at the claim box, as this chestnut chap has had to leave a forwarding address in 6 of 8 races when in for a tag. There's a good reason for that, as he's partaken in the exacta in more than half of his 26 starts, and enters today off a career best effort, while owning a sweet declining market today is distance of ground. Race goes directly through him. #4 GUN IT ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but this notorious nibbler has hit the board in five of six starts off the bench, and lures one of the best riders in the country. #1 SYNTHESIS is quite the old war horse isn't he? 8 yr. old makes his 60th start today, while getting a big upgrade in the saddle as well. May last for a share. NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 3 | 1st -Kuramada ( Ire ) | 2nd -High Tide | 3rd - Sagamore Mischief |
#1 KURAMADA (IRE) is a lightly raced seven year old who has been a steady check earner throughout his career, but over that time he has also burned quite a bit of bread, as this fellow has lost as the favorite in nine of his last ten starts. The good news though, is that he was a lively runner up in his sole third off the bench jammie outside of stakes company, & draws snugly for the first time. #6 HIGH TIDE showed zilch down in Lexington, but went into that race off a lifetime best number, so perhaps you can write it off as a bounce. 13:6-2-1 ledger @ today's distance of ground positively leaps off the page, as does this pilot's 3 for 7 Mark when astride. #2B SAGAMORE MISCHIEF didn't show much in the lone turf attempt, but has honest enough breeding for the stuff, and we always like to give a runner two chances over a particular surface before dismissing. OFF TURF: 3-5-2-4-2B NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Blake B | 2nd -Gentleman Joe | 3rd -Grandpa's Kid |
#7 BLAKE B must be getting quite dizzy moving from barn to barn, as this boy has been purchased in five of his last six heats. Fella is a very consistent sort, and jumps way up in class after the purchase a couple of weeks ago; we like his ability to send or rate a bit. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 GENTLEMAN JOE has won three of his last six affairs, and drops a dime off the recent score. Makes all kinds of sense. #6 GRANDPA'S KID cuts back from two turns to one, and has hit the board and seven of his nine tries at this dx..
| Race 5 | 1st -Kerry | 2nd -Ever So Sweet ( Ire ) | 3rd -A New Peace |
#3 KERRY came up a bit short after grabbing the lead at the top of the stretch when returning from a 4 month sabbatical, but could move forward with that under her girthstrap. Note the switch from Davis to Ortiz. Slight edge. #2 EVER SO SWEET (IRE) has been away since early November, but gets the wonder drug for the first time while being reunited with Flavor Flav, who guided this one to a solid second place finish in the debut. #10 A NEW PEACE has fared quite well when getting back on the turf, and could spice things up a touch. OFF TURF:1-10-11(MTO)-7-4
| Race 6 | 1st -Agility | 2nd -Screaming Uncle | 3rd -Magnificent Ride |
#3 AGILITY got the job done at the level just below this last month, and showed some decent mettle when accomplishing it after getting smacked around at the onset and dueling late. A threat to go all the way once again. #9 SCREAMING UNCLE was visually impressive when beating conditional platers on the 4th of April, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Despite being moved up a bit, the Beyer garnered in that win is solid enough to merit inclusion, and recognize that this fella completed the exacta directly in front of a next out victor in his only start when loading last. #8 MAGNIFICENT RIDE gets a trainer upgrade for today's local debut, and is as good as any for the show bread. NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -El rezeen | 2nd -Swordofhonor ( Ire ) | 3rd -Stop the Press |
#9 EL REZEEN has given decent accounts of himself in both turf deals thus far, and one of them came from an outsideish slot just like today. Timid selection in a race that's difficult to decipher. #5 SWORDOFHONOR (IRE) ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) has hung up a couple of decent adjusted figaro's in just as many outings, and recognize that the last race turned out to be a key one, as five returnees went 5:2-2-1 in their four sui generis followup engagements. #7 STOP THE PRESS could be rolling along for a piece. OFF TURF: 4-7-1-2-11(MTO)
| Race 8 | 1st -Shadow Dragon | 2nd -Colloquy | 3rd -Mason Mania |
#8 SHADOW DRAGON has been MIA since early December, but has a win and two placings off a sabbatical, and has done okay at this trip and over the strip. We see that Junior is one of two one aboard this fella, & will make him a slight choice in a wide open deal. #3 COLLOQUY has had to have his mail sent to him after his last three starts, but they were all goodies, and gets some improvements in the irons now. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. #1 MASON MANIA is in decent form these days, and is now protected against the claim after the April 26th purchase. YO has some solid results when going into the starting apparatus first.
| Race 9 | 1st -Art Of Courage | 2nd -Courtly Banker | 3rd -Launch Control |
#12 ART OF COURAGE appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and although a bounce is always possible after a solid effort following an 11 month layoff, will give this one a chance to do the killer crossover at the onset. #2 COURTLY BANKER cuts back after setting most of the fractions in the turf bow, and as he gave a nice account of himself when sprinting down in Hallandale Beach at the end of march, we'll say today's distance shouldn't be much of an issue. #1 LAUNCH CONTROL hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the work tab says go, and the two turf efforts on display weren't half bad. OFF TURF: 2-3-9-12-5
Aqueduct Spring/Summer: 35-130 ( $261.60 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-4 ( 50% ) Favorite's Win %: 51-130 ( 40% )( As of Sunday morning )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4175-20340 ($34,492.10) +/-: -15% against a 16.1% takeout
Beatable Favorites : 460-1716( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 7665-20444( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4188-20908 ( $35,411.40 )Beatable Favorites : 470-1762( 26.7% )Favorite's Win %: 7808-21030( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.7% takeout
