SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 9/24
  
  

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Goose egg fior us here on Sunda, but we closed out the week with a $925 Triple box. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #8 Siesta Kew


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 9/24

 

Race  1

1.Out of Trouble

2.Elegant Zip

3.Pecatonica

#8 OUT OF TROUBLE got the job done at odds on versus what we would consider similar type at Saratoga on August 20th, and six year old completed the exacta in her lone try on the local Inner way back when as well. Barn is a poyfect three for three with optional turf routers who scored less than 68 days back & are 7-1 or <, w/ payoffs of $5 x 2 & $7. Slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #1 ELEGANT ZIP goes long on the lawn for the first time today, but completed the triple the only time she went from 1X to 2X, and accomplished that in stakes company. One for two mark when breaking from the pine duly noted. #5 PECATONICA has hit the board in three straight & makes all kinds of sense here.  OFF TURF: 8-1-4-6-7

 

Race  2

1.B C Belle

2.Mendham

3.Pop the Bubbly

#8 B C BELLE showed little when beginning her working life up north at the end of August, but there's no scary drop today, and we have a fondness for second time starters going long on the lawn for the first time. Dam was 3 for 5 in turf routes, and her grandmommy was a half length short of a 2 for 2 record on firm ground. Price play in a wide open affair. #5 MENDHAM wasn't in the mix first time out, but Jose Ortiz is enticed to ride for today's surface switch, and there's a decent amount of green in the pedigree. #1 POP THE BUBBLY rounds out the top three ( which means that we ran out of interesting things to say about this field.  OFF TURF: 6-7-10-4-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Empty Tomb

2.Legit

3.Kingmeister

#1 EMPTY TOMB was a well beaten but daylight clear runner up when going two turns at this level 26 days in the rear, & owns a win & a third from as many one turn affairs over a glib surface. Manny Man, returns, and he's off to a fine start at the stand. #2 LEGIT has the same 1X record as the above, and also recently placed in the same type of race as 'Tomb in 'Toga Town. Show horse from the last got the job done next time out, improving in the BSF dept. by approximately 5.2% in the process. #4 KINGMEISTER was visually impressive when besting allowance foes on 8/22, and is an obvious factor off of two successive lifetime best #'s. 

 

Race  4 

1.Kept Waiting

2.Plink Freud

3.Memories Eternal

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 KEPT WAITING got nabbed late in the game in her last duet vs. tougher, and now takes the biggest drop in the game; deserving favorite. #6 PLINK FREUD posted an adjusted 70.8 ( in the mdspwt. ranks ) the only time she was in a 3rd off the layoff scenario. Cancel takes the reins, & he broke a long schneid with a double on Sunday. #1 MEMORIES ETERNAL has fared okay in her only turf routes ( one from the inside & one from the two hole ), and has as good a shot as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 4-6-7-3-12

 

Race  5

1.Dealin' Stelen

2.Autostrade

3.Financial Freedom

#3 DEALIN' STELEN was smartly detoured to Belterra Park on the way back from Churchill back in early June, and the trek bore fruit for a confidence building score when facing weaker. Gelding has been kept on the sidelines since, but it doesn't appear to be for any bad reasons, as he's been on the worktab since then. Form an itty bitty sampling, Zito has won with both of his mid level dirt sprinters who scored 51-107 days back & are 17-1 or less ( $12 & $20 ), and pay heed to the fact that this one found the line first in his lone try off a L/O, to the tune of $55. The more we type... #6 AUTOSTRADE will be brought over by a 19% shotcaller who just about doubles that rate ( 5-14 ) with locally based dirt stock @ this level who missed the board 37 days ago or less, & are 12-1 or undah. The mutuels for that survey were $12, $21, $7, $6 & $5, and all of this is with Franco astride. #5 FINANCIAL FREEDOM is the sort of horse we can all root for. Soon to be 10YO owns a 68:15-23-5 ledger, and has partaken in the exacta in his last ten dirt starts. Tough to exclude. 

 

Race  6 

1.Caramocha

2.U Should B Dancing

3.Ten Plagues

#1 CARAMOCHA has a couple'a decent works on the docket for today's curtain riser, and although Mitch isn't known for having 'em ready to pop first time out, this is a January foal who went for 100 large in Saratoga last summer, and 353 Tomlinson figure is honest enough. No standouts here, so why not go for something fat? #4 U SHOULD B DANCING bested half the field at 23-1 when starting things out on the 28th of August, and picks up a hungry rider who will definitely try for the minor spoils. Except for the month of the foaling & the venue of the auction, you can basically replicate our top choice analysis in regards to #9 TEN PLAGUES here.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 SIESTA KEW

 

Race  7

1.Dirty ( AE )

2.Fast Getaway

3.McErin

#14 DIRTY (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, would be toting along a win in his only try on the course, a win in his only start when available for purchase, and a one of two ledger in turf tries off a respite. As none of those races overlap, that would be a three for four boxscore in all pertinent categories. Big shot with a resurgent jock aboard.  #2 FAST GETAWAY has been alternating losses & wins for his last quintet, so today should be a tally, no? If only the game was that simple. But seriously, this one has a boatload of zip, digs this trip, and when it comes to this course, is very hip; up for sale for the first time this afternoon. #4 MCERIN is another in and outer who finds himself at an all time low in this spot, and won by a bunch in his sole "third off the break" jammie.  OFF TURF: 10-11-12-3-16(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 7:13 P.M. WEDNESDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Manoffire 

2.Coral Legacy

3.The Last Zip

#4 MANOFFIRE hasn't found the winners' circle in quite some time ( five years, to be exact ), but lightly raced ten year old ( 22 starts ) totes the lightest impost of his career and has gotten the job done in 2 of 7 on the widener. Would like to see this one get a more alert and clean beginning to keep him in the thick of things early on. #6 CORAL LEGACY split the field in this race at 27-1 when last seen, and is eligible to move forward in today's 3rd off the layoff try. #5 THE LAST ZIP has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the 1st time, and showed improves speed in Grantville 22 days back. Well traveled chap has some back class, and is reunited w/Joel, under whom he's amassed a 3:1-2-0 record.  OFF TURF: 5-7-1-9-2

 

Race  9 

1.Capital Structure

2.Crystalle

3.Queens Embrace

#4 CAPITAL STRUCTURE is an extremely well bred animal, who somehow went off at 6-1 down at the Shore when making her debut back in mid July, and got the diploma in convincing fashion. Repeat well within reach. #3 CRYSTALLE hasn't been in action since disappointing in the Breeders' Cup, so obviously, something went amiss that day, or shortly thereafter. Kimmel not known for running many short animals, so while this one may need a race, at least you know she's sound -- especially with Johnny aboard. #2 QUEENS EMBRACE has gotten the job done the last two times she had a tag on her, and five of her last six outside of stakes company. Chance to rebound.  OFF TURF: 3-4-6-2-5

 

Race  10

1.Madam Deputy

2.Mind of Gold

3.Love Me Tomorrow

#2 MADAM DEPUTY has only beaten home two in as many races, but we look anywhere in a horse's PP's to find something positive, and the bow right here was honest enough. Meekest of selections in the cheapest race they run on the grounds. #9 MIND OF GOLD outran her odds in a big way when closing out the triple down in NJ a month ago in his first start for Wayne Potts, who had been suspected by another jurisdiction of being a "paper trainer" for Marcus Vitali. Obvious factor if able to replicate the figaro. #13 LOVE ME TOMORROW has hit the board in 6 of 7, but has lost ground in the lane in all her starts but one, so we'll leave beneath.  

 
Belmont          ( Current ):     4-30        ( $31.30 )  Beatable    Favorites    0-1  ( 0% )      Favorites Win %         7-30    ( 24.3% )


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       6-34       ( $55.40 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     14-34   ( 41.2% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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