SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 10/18 - Woodbine - Northern Dancer & E.P. Taylor
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's complete, full card selections & analysis for Belmont Park, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 10/18 - Northern Dancer & E.P. Taylor

 

 Race 5 Northern Dancer

1.Say the Word

2.Peace of Ekati

3.Sir Sahib

Today's 5th race is named after one of the greatest of all time, Northern Dancer. We were fortunate enough to ride a descendant of that animal during our time in the NYPD Mounted Unit ( Carnival House ).  Anyway, we're seeing this race as easu as 1-2-3...  #1 SAY THE WORD does his best work when coming from off the pace, so obviously we're hoping for some quick early splits today for this Cox ( Dig it ) trainee. Gelding has a few decent running lines when starting from the innermost two slots, and just may surprise in a wide open event. #2 PEACE OF EKATI has hit the board in both "poly to turf" attempts, owns a decent mark on this course. #3 SIR SAHIB is a bit of a fringe player by rote ( 20:2-4-7 ), and seems like a logical "unders" candidate.  OFF TURF: 3-4-1-8-7

 

       Race 7           EP Taylor

1.Rideforthecourse

2.Elizabeth Way ( Ire )

3.Etoile ( Fr )

#1 RIDEFORTHECAUSE shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, given the solid progression in the speed figure department of late. Needs to work out a snug trip with the tricky first turn. #7 ELIZABETH WAY (IRE) lost by only two lengths when finishing two spots behind a next out winner in her lone 1X to 2X try, and could perk up after a disappointing performance. #3 ETOILE (FR) completes the "Tri Country Tri" based on her solid placing in front of our secondary selection a couple'a months back, and getting a bit off the rail in this spot.  OFF TURF: 3-4-7-1-6 

 
Belmont          ( Current ):     26-179     ( $252.70 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-13  ( 7.7% )  Favorites Win %      54-179   ( 30.2% )( As of Sunday morning ) 


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-35       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-35   ( 34.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017