SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 10/18
  
  

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Couple on the day yesterday, but we also got home an Ice Cold Triple of $242, an Ice Cold Exacta of $93, and an Ice Cold Double of $27.  

Just a reminder that for today's Graded Stakes selections & analysis for Woodbine Park, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  Race 5 - #1 Customerexperience ( As of 11:21 )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont Park - 10/18

 

Race  1

1.Cotton Candy Cutie

2.Whyisshesolucky

3.Miss Loyalty

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #4 COTTON CANDY CUTIE has hit the board in three straight and five of six going over a glib surface, and although this one is a nibbler by rote, we're assuaged by the fact that Kantarmaci owns a 10:4-3-2 record with locally based mid level dirt stock who hit the board less than 20 days back & are 7-1 or < today ( $15, $9, $12 & $6 ). #5 WHYISSHESOLUCKY has steadily improved over her last quartet and is one of five at Elmont, but we'll leave beneath as it's tough to take Randi at 5-2. #1 MISS LOYALTY has completed the exacta in three of four tries off an absence, and that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  2

1.Exact

2.Jade Empress

3.Hit the Woah

#2 EXACT all the way. #6 JADE EMPRESS improved by about 10% when having blinks added for the first time, and while having hit the board in both starts to date, appears to be a cut below the above. ( Below the above ?? ) Best hope is for the heavy favorite to stub her hoof exiting the starting apparatus. #4 HIT THE WOAH went for more than seven times the stud fee at auction 13 months back and has a couple of fair morning moves for today's bow. 

 

Race  3

1.En Wye Cee

2.Breaking the Rules

3.Seismic Wave

#4 EN WYE CEE was the easiest kind of winner in an off the turf event up at the Spa on 8/29, and the runner up from that day got his picture taken next time out. Colt put forth a spirited showing in the lone turf attempt, and the adj. numero from that affair came back a robust 94.1 ( with a Tomlinson figure that tells us there's some room for improvement ). Slight edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 BREAKING THE RULES is 2 for 2 on the inner and 2 for 3 beneath Johnny V. ( with a win overlapping both ), & is a logical inclusion. #2 SEISMIC WAVE rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 4-2-5-1-3

 

Race  4 

1.Mr. Fidget 

2.Pier Forty

3.Unbridled John

#4 MR. FIDGET hasn't hit the board in quite some time, but should appreciate being back with his own kind today. Good guy Jimmy Ferraro ( 7% on the norm ) has a juicy 19:4-0-3-3 boxscore with maiden claiming dirt sprinters at 23-1 or undah coming off respites of less than 18 days ( $10, $19, $11 & $5 ). Viable alternative to our secondary selection -- a money burning fave. #3 PIER FORTY is slowly becoming that kind of maiden -- with 13 of his 17 losses coming at 6-1 or below -- but we'll chunk in because of the overall body of work. #8 UNBRIDLED JOHN has shown improved ( turf ) speed in the last duet, and finds himself at his lowest level to date. 

 

Race  5

1.Stefanie On Fleek

2.Tiltingatwindmills

3.Vibrancy 

#4 STEFANIE ON FLEEK has hit the board in both starts when available for purchase, and has blinkers added for a clan that has a crisp 11:4-2-1-1 record with runners of this ilk off L/O's of 55 days or lowah ( $5, $6, $7 & $15 ). Four year old had a win & a placing in her only other pairings with Johnny V. on firm ground, and just may sit a nice trip. #3 TILTINGATWINDMILLS has been best by some breaks in the action over her abbreviated career, but did in fact find the line first in her sole try with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. As an aside, looking at the sales history of this horse, isn't it odd to see Klaravich pay 22 grand for a Canadian bred? #11 VIBRANCY goes over the blades for the first time, and you have to admire any runner ( no matter how low the speed figs ) with a 4:2-0-1-1 mark to start out her working life.  OFF TURF: 3-4-6-11-7(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-4-11 WITH #1 AS A BATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  6 

1.River Nile 

2.Black Irish

3.Brunate

#6 RIVER NILE is a $200,000 Saratoga buy who can be all yours for a fraction of that this afternoon, but don't have visions of sending this one to the breeding shed, as he had his apricots removed after the July flopola. The good news is that there's been a couple of snappy works since, as he lands in a very soft spot. #1 BLACK IRISH is a bit of an in and outer, and although the effort ( and # ) from the most recent was was solid, we'll slide beneath because of the frigidness of the barn. You can go right ahead and feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the last septet of #10 BRUNATE, as Bond charge has gone up, up, up the Beyer ladder; deserving chalk.  NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-1-8.

 

Race  7

1.Voting Control

2.Road to Meath 

3.Bad Beat Brian

#7 VOTING CONTROL has but five starts in his truncated career, but they've all been decent ones ( including a showing in the Breeders' Cup way back when ), and although it's caveat emptor with this one up for sale for the 1st time, we suppose he's the one to beat. #8 ROAD TO MEATH blitzed cheapies by a pole on closing day at Saratoga nearly six weeks back, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Gelding has some nice turf running lines, but you should know that those claiming next out turfers off Chad Brown click at just a 6% rate; mixed signals. #5 BAD BEAT BRIAN went wire to wire the last time he went 1X to 2X, and is confidently hiked up in class today, despite being out of jail after the claim.  OFF TURF: 10-3-2-7-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:38, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON THE WIDENER, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-7-3.

 

Race  8 

1.Doublepour

2.Dee Bo

3.It's Gravy

#7 DOUBLEPOUR was in the back half of the field first time out, but broke from a disadvantageous post that day, and we like how there's no scary drop as of yet. According to DRF Formulator, Hennig triples his regular 12% batting average when it comes to his second time mdspwt. starters at Belmont at 20-1 or lower ( < 46 days ). The winners in that survey came back $10 x 2, $3 & $13, and there's a sub category of 2-4 with those who missed the money last out. #5 DEE BO was a solid runner up right outta the box for The As Man at the end of August, but then for some inexplicable reason, was spotted on the sod, with awful results. March foal is right where he belongs, and would be no surprise. #2 IT'S GRAVY ( "All you got to do is make it out of here and it's all gravy -- every day, the rest of your life, gravy." ) is the clear speed of this deal, and just finished third in a stakes at The Lakes. 

 

Race  9 

1.Buy Land and See

2.Decorated Invader

3.Bodecream

#7 BUY LAND AND SEE has three wins sandwiched in between a pair of showings, and we like the versatility shown with this one doing it on firm ground or good, and going long or short. One of the tallies came right here on the Widener, and there's a bullet in the holster from last Sunday. #3 DECORATED INVADER is the clear class of this deal, and will take some pounding at the proverbial windows in this spot. #4 BODECREAM came from way out of it to win at 10-1 in going away fashion the only time he was in a "second off the layoff" spot, and sheds four pounds off a 3rd place finish in the Saranac.  OFF TURF: 3-2-5-7-8(MTO)

 

Race  10

1.Canarsie Angel

2.Doll

3.Bella Rose

#5 CANARSIE ANGEL comes in today off of three successive lifetime best figaros, and Mike Miceli has won with half of his six turf sprinters at this level who crashed the fiesta less than 46 days back & are 12-1 or under today ( $6, $30 & $12 ). You won't be getting double digit odds on this one again, but you'll likely get another gritty effort. #2 DOLL has always been a bit of a fringe player, but one of her three turf efforts was legit enough to merit inclusion, and Rudy Rod has a two for three mark w/ runners fitting this criteria who were 1-2-3 35-57 days in the rear ( $7 & $16 ). #7 BELLA ROSE is a bit out of form these days, but gets in light with the apprentice returning from a brief injury.  OFF TURF: 3-14(MTO)-2-4-11 


Belmont          ( Current ):     26-179     ( $252.70 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-13  ( 7.7% )  Favorites Win %      54-179   ( 30.2% )( As of Sunday morning )  


  
Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       7-35       ( $61.20 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    12-35   ( 34.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2670-13563 ($22,847.70) Beatable Favorites : 357-1284( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 5149-13646 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2755-14131 ($23,666.60)  Beatable Favorites : 372-1352( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5331-14233 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


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