SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 11/20


Another BIG day for us here yesterday with three winners of $8, $13 & $58 ( & a 14-1 runner up ), a $316 ICE COLD Daily Double, two more successful "Beatable Favorites", bringing our streak to 31 for 32, and we are now guaranteed a flat bet profit until AT LEAST December the 3rd.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #12 Counterparty Risk ( Ire )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Aqueduct - 11/20


Race  1

1.Well Kept Secret

2.Tap the Barrel

3.Jordy Can Tap

#4 WELL KEPT SECRET showed stark improvement when going over wet going second time out ( something she's not particularly well bred for ), and January foal was decently clear of the 3rd place horse that afternoon. From a tight survey, The "As-Man" has a 6:3-3-0 mark with locally based maiden claiming dirt sprinters who hit the board less than three fortnights back ( $6 x 2 & $8 ). Her race to lose. #7 TAP THE BARREL was "a stumblin' and a bumblin'" when last in action down at The Shore, and deserves another chance with the package that was added for the first time that day ( blinks & juice ). #3 JORDY CAN TAP goes sprinting on the sand for the first time, and as she has a 394 Tomlinson figure for the trip, we'll chunk in at a price.   NOTE: AS OF 10:43, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-7-1.


Race  2

1.No Payne

2.Athena Dancer

3.Get the Candy

#8 NO PAYNE didn't how a whole heck of a lot when starting things out on October 24th, but the figure earned that day was comparable to others signed on, and the pedigree tells us there may be some room for improvement. Mild choice in a race that's difficult to hug. #5 ATHENA DANCER bested more than half the field despite going pretty wide first out, and is eligible to move a bit forward with a tidier sojourn. #2 GET THE CANDY is monstrously bred for this sorta deal ( by Twirling Candy out of an In Excess mare ), and Nevin secures Franco for the debut, which is goodie goodie, as the tandem has fared well together.  OFF TURF: 11-1-7-6-2


Race  3


2.Dream Doctor

3.Patriot Drive 

#10 SOULMATE was in the rear with the gear when returning to The Big Apple after a confidence building score in Grantville two weeks prior, and while this one may not appear to be as talented as some of the others signed on, the Beyer speed figures are fairly comparable in a race with no first draft eliminations. In scenarios such as this, we often lean to a price, and will do that here. #3 DREAM DOCTOR makes his first start for a new barn today's second off the L/O engagement, and has a nice 4:1-1-1 ledger in that regards. Recognize the reunion with Junior her, as he guided this one to a 39-1,  4th place ( 3/4 of a length ) finish in the debut more than five years ago. #4 PATRIOT DRIVE is 1 for 3 in third off the respite returns on the sod, and has the same mark when going turf to dirt ( with none of those starts overlapping ). Toss in a 2-2 mark with Kendrick in the irons, and you have the makings of a legit player.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1


Race  4 

1.Durkin's Call


3.Brush Country

#4 DURKIN'S CALL has cashed a few decent checks since being smartly snagged by Ferraro four starts ago, and we like that this one is still kept two times above that purchase price. Gelding has done some nice work here, and aforementioned shotcaller ( who's on a nice little run of late ) is a crisp 5:3-0-1 with Ozone Park dirt stock at this level who crashed the fiesta less than four days back & are 13-1 or less ( $14, $4 & $13 ). #6 MCERIN is back at the purchase price this afternoon, after a solid placing vs. 32K foes 22 days in the rear. Logical, but the stock goes up if the front wraps come off. #5 BRUSH COUNTRY hasn't done much over the last duet, but owns a win over the strip, and 5% Jones is a nice 3-14 with runners of this ilk who missed the $ < 28 days back & are 30-1 or undah ( $11, $16 & $18 ).


Race  5

1.Mo Maverick

2.Colonel Tom


#1 MO MAVERICK returned off an elongated absence to flash some early hoof before fading in what was likely a freshener for today's effort. Speedy gelding won his only start on the inner, and switches from a bug to Irad here, and he steered this one to a score in their sole partnership. #3 COLONEL TOM sure does have the knack for finding the winner's circle ( 6 for 13 ), and that includes a win in his one and only start on the outer, as well as a tally the last time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Ferrin picks up the mount, and we're expecting her to so some nice things here this winter. #4 OPT owns a win & a third from as many starts off a "true" layoff and should be coming late.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9 


Race  6 


2.This Just In

3.Look Me Over

#1 NICENO hasn't done much to get the heart thumping in the A.M.'s for today's initial foray, but this one is a half to a 3 for 14 turf router ( 299G ) as well as one who was 3-6 doing the same ( 67G ). Sire made us look brilliant with a 30-1 score in the 2014 Breeders' Cup Mile, and Franco off to a decent start at the stand. #8 THIS JUST IN faded after a half when beginning her career about a month back, but being a War Front out of a Smart Strike mare, we wouldn't be surprised to see some drastic improvement with this one. #3 LOOK ME OVER ( the title of a M*A*S*H episode, highlighting the recently passed Nurse Kellye ) has a decent overall body of work and makes her 3rd start off the bench today.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 COUNTERPARTY RISK (IRE) is one of our two first draft eliminations.


Race  7


2.Fierce Lady 

3.Speightstown Gal

#6 PUFFERY got the job done against what we would consider to be =/tougher competition in her first try off a two month freshening at Big Sandy, and historically, this one is 1 fer 4 in "second off the L/O" starts ( 2-23 otherwise ). While a regression is always possible after a career best outing, we're assuaged by the barn's 3 for 5 mark with 2nd off the shelf optional dirt sprinters right here, who won their last & are 10-1 or less ( $4, $3 & $8 ). #2 FIERCE LADY has a bunch of early zip, and 19% clan more than doubles that batting average when going turf to dirt with their optional stock who missed the money less than 54 days back ( $10, $8 x 2 & $6 ). #11 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL completes our troika of DRF Formulator angles here, as Weaver ( 16% on the norm ) has a 3-8 mark with dirt sprinters who were in the money 48-50 days back ( $5, $8 & $6 ). 


Race  8 


2.Kid Mercury

3.So High ( GB )

#1 MALTHAEL has been a part of the superfecta in all his starts but one, so right off the bat you have to admire his consistency. Gelding was confidently hiked up in class for the first start off the claim, despite having been kept in jail, and is now back at the purchase level as the barn looks to make a quick profit on the transaction. #9 KID MERCURY is a $475,000 bust who can now be all yours for less than 1/13th of that price, as barn goes to a rider that they've had excellent success with in the past. Will likely take some beating at the virtual windows. #3 SO HIGH (GB) is another who's eligible to switch barns for the first time, and loses the eye cups as well.  OFF TURF: 12-1-4-11(AE)-7


Race  9 

1.Windfall Profit

2.Fierce Scarlett


#2 WINDFALL PROFIT ( like most Shug runners ) has improved through time, and may appreciate getting off the rail a touch. From a small survey, trainer is 5:2-2-0 with AQU based allowance entrants going long on the lawn ( 1-51 days ) beneath today's jock, who is white hot these days. #8 FIERCE SCARLETT has been a part of the action in all three trips to the track after being laid up, and should be rolling late in the game. #10 APURATE has essentially improved with each & every of her turf starts, culminating with a diploma earning wire job in Elmont on the 22nd of October. Who knows where this one's ceiling is ?  OFF TURF: 12(AE)-3-7-11(AE)-1


Race  10

1.Dazzling Speed

2.Classy Sadie


#2 DAZZLING SPEED only bested two when returning off a half'a calendar layoff ( a horse & the chase ambulance ), but from time to time, we like to ignore pre & post L/O running lines, as something likely went amiss in the former, while perhaps not being fully cranked up for the latter. That being said, this one posted an adjusted 62 prior to said starts, and best work has come right here. Price play. #3 CLASSY SADIE drops way down and totes the lightest impost of her career. #5 GAGLIANO is in with a tag for the first time today, and leaves the eye cups in the tack room for the first time as well; gal has partaken in the superfecta in both 2X to 1X attempts.  NOTE: AS OF 10:51, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Aqueduct       ( Current ):       16-78      ( $279.10 ) Beatable    Favorites     0-5   ( 0% )     Favorites Win %        26-78    ( 33.3% ) ( As of Friday morning ) 

Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       9-50       ( $79.20 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    17-50   ( 34.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2712-13830 ($23,218.10) Beatable Favorites : 358-1300( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5239-13913 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.0%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2797-14398 ($24,037.00)  Beatable Favorites : 373-1368( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5402-14500 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout