SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 11/21
  
  

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Just one chalkt winner on a day laden with the stuff early on ( four faves came in ), but we got lipped with a 14-1 shot, and had our bacon saved with three Exacta boxes of $207, $62 & $16 ( along with a $41 Quinella. Although our Beatable Favorite was unsuccessful, we are still on a 31 for 33 run in that regards. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Aqueduct - 11/21

 

Race  1

1.Vienna Code

2.Calidad

3.Brooklyn Heights

#6 VIENNA CODE displayed some improved early hoof from her first start to the next, and although the speed figures from both leave a lot to be desired, this one is much better bred for the dirt than the gramma, so we're expecting even more improvement today. Filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon ( an angle we have always been fond of ), and as there ain't no world beaters signed on, we'll bite at a price. #1 CALIDAD has a couple of decent running lines over a fast track, and gets in light while sliding in to the pine.  #7 BROOKLYN HEIGHTS has been a part of the superfecta in four straight, and is a sensible if unspectacular addition. 

 

Race  2

1.Danzigwiththestars

2.Vodka Lemonade

3.Ruse 

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #10 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS ( cross entered Thursday, so check the changes ) overcame a bit of trouble second time out, and according to DRF Formulator, Carlito has his way with first time routers on the turf who crashed the party 29-67 days back & are 18-1 or less, as he's 16:5-1-3-2 in that regards ( $10 x 2, $12, $5 & $6 ). #6 VODKA LEMONADE nearly went all the way when going long on the lawn right outta the box, and the pedigree tells us that the end result was likely not an aberration. Another spotted two days back, so take a peek at the scratches. #3 RUSE completes our troika of selections in the entry box twice this week, and we like how this progressed 2nd time out.  OFF TURF: 11-12-2-3-1  NOTE AS OF 11:22, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-6-4.

 

Race  3

1.Vicar's Legend

2.Summer Bourbon

3.Earned Success 

Another race where our top troika should suffice.   #1 VICAR'S LEGEND nearly went from zero to hero in a near identical spot at Big Sandy on 10/30, but fell a neck short that day, and now slides in three slots while shedding 16 ounces.  #2 SUMMER BOURBON was in the rear with the gear vs. slightly tougher last out, and was on his way to another barn afterwards, but was rerouted back to Linda's shedrow after a voided claim. Gelding has had the mandatory work in front of a state vet since then, and we'll toss in because of the stellar record right here. #7 EARNED SUCCESS has led at the top of the lane in all four starts since being claimed by Potts after not having done such in ten prior starts ( Another Festivus MIRACLE !! ) while winning two of them. Logical contender. 

 

Race  4 

1.Hieroglyphics

2.Arthur Kitt ( GB )

3.Conviction Trade

#6 HIEROGLYPHICS shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, despite the price hike. Hard to knock in a tough affair. #2 ARTHUR KITT (GB) hasn't faced the starter since early June, but has two runner up finishes from three starts off the pine, and owns a touch of back class. #1 CONVICTION TRADE is a fairly steady sort who has been kept in jail since the snag 34 days back, and while usable, we'll leave beneath because of the 4:0-0-0 mark when breaking from the innermost two slots ( 6:3-0-2 otherwise ).  OFF TURF 1-3-5-7-6

 

Race  5

1.Unrelenting Force

2.Mister Bobby

3.Siena Magic

#6 UNRELENTING FORCE was eased last time out, but we've made some money with said type in the past ( under certain parameters ), as quite often bettors discount them out of hand. Aside from the recent blemish, this one has a 3:0-2-1 mark at The Big A , owns a win & a placing with Manny Man in the stirrups, ( with NONE of those races overlapping ), and we like how there's no scary drop. Eligible to rebound. #4 MISTER BOBBY owns a win and a placing from three starts off the pine and totes the lightest impost of his working life. #5 SIENA MAGIC sure is a popular item at the claim box, as this one has changed addresses after each start when eligible to do such, and with good reason, as he usually gives a good account of himself. Lightly raced 5YO found the line first in his sole "second off the L/O" attempt, and owns a 4:2-2-0 ledger right here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Bella Bettina

2.Actually

3.Little Nutter

#9 BELLA BETTINA has gone 25-43-58 in her three turf starts to date, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. 333 Turf Tomlinson says there's room for some upgrade here, and the two ugly running lines on the dirt help ensure a solid price in this spot. #2 ACTUALLY was in the rear with the gear first time out, but has pedigree to do better, and it's encouraging to see Jose stick around with no frightening drop. #5 LITTLE NUTTER has a couple'a nice efforts going over firm ground, and may be overlooked in the spot.  OFF TURF: 12-1-4-11-9

 

Race  7

1.Kid Chocolate

2.Blizz

3.Hard Count

#1 KID CHOCOLATE has shown absolutely nothing in the last duet, but we always go back three starts in an effort to unearth something positive ( while seeking some value ), and the August 22nd effort yielded a solid showing with a respected ( adjusted ) Beyer of 73.8 ; expecting some decent things out of this rider if she can get on some live horses. #3 BLIZZ finished 3rd the only time she was available for purchase & may perk up trying the sod for the first time. #6 HARD COUNT hasn't done anything of note in his last two starts, but given the overall turf resume', we have no problem chunking in.  OFF TURF: 12(AE)-3-5-11(AE)-1

 

Race  8 

1.The Revenger

2.Beachside

3.Notorious Flirt

#4 THE REVENGER apparently appreciated the layoff, surface switch, Lasix addition, or any combination thereof, when securing the diploma down in Maryland at 34-1, and while we loathe "missing the wedding & going to the funeral", this one should still be a solid parimutuel offering, given the competition. Timid selection. #2 BEACHSIDE is wheeled right back after being plucked out of a 16K event a half dozen days back, and tho a bit light from a BSF perspective, we'll use given the outfit's proclivity for improving runners after a claim. #6 NOTORIOUS FLIRT has blinkers added for today's 2nd off the L/O try.

 

Race  9 

1.Sadler's Joy

2.Ziyad ( GB )

3.North Dakota

Featured race of the day is named after the famed sportswriter, Red Smith, and for some history, feel free to go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Smith_(sportswriter) .  As for the event itself, we'll give a nod to the old pro #4 SADLER'S JOY. $2.6 million dollar earner always gives it the old college try, won this race last year, and has a fine boxscore at the trip. Should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #8 ZIYAD (GB) has closed out the triple in both starts in North America, and could be rolling late w/any pace to cut into. #5 NORTH DAKOTA ( like most Shug runners ) has gotten better over time, having won three of five, and owns a 2:1-0-1 record in 2nd off the bench forays.  OFF TURF: 1-3-2-11-9

 

Race  10

1.True Palace

2.Noble Mischief ( AE )

3.Justintimeforwine

#5 TRUE PALACE doesn't have the sexiest of resume's, but has outran his odds when a well clear runner up at 50-1 two starts back, and just may surprise beneath a decent longshot jockey in a forgettable finale. #13 NOBLE MISCHIEF (AE) is on the outside looking in, but should he be fortunate enough to face the starter, would be toting along a few decent numeros. #1 JUSTINTIMEFORWINE hung up an adj. 68.8 the last time he transitioned from brown to green, and secures a jock who will try hard for all the minor spoils.  OFF TURF: 2-1-11(AE)-9-1A(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Aqueduct       ( Current ):       17-88      ( $283.80 ) Beatable    Favorites     1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorites Win %        30-88    ( 33.5% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 



Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       9-50       ( $79.20 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    17-50   ( 34.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2712-13830 ($23,218.10) Beatable Favorites : 358-1300( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5239-13913 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.0%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2797-14398 ($24,037.00)  Beatable Favorites : 373-1368( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5402-14500 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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