SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 11/22 - Happy Thanksgiving !! ( In advance )
  
  

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One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Aqueduct - 11/22 - Happy Thanksgiving !! - ( In advance )

 

Race  1

1.Broadway Joe

2.Loaded Joe

3.Kith

#4 BROADWAY JOE lost by only three lengths at 40-1 in this race at Belmont 51 days back, and gets a jockey upgrade off that performance. We're still waiting for the barn to get their first tally, and are willing to take a swing at what will be a healthy mutuel offering in a race with just one first draft elimination. #6 LOADED JOE posted an adjusted 63.8 in his sole 2X to 1X try on the gramma, & owns some decent early zip. #7 KITH has displayed improvement with each passing start, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman for today's second start off the layoff.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-5-3

 

Race  2

1.Appreciate

2.Bahamian Park

3.Freedom and Whiskey

#1 APPRECIATE encountered a bit of trouble in the most recent, and took the overland route in the start just before that, but runs sans eye cups for the first time in more than two years, and has been a part of the super in his last quartet when first to load. Price play. #3 BAHAMIAN PARK gave backers quite a thrill when leading most of the way at 68-1 in Presque Isle, but faded late in the game & now slides in nine slots while switching to a surface he's about 15.2% better over. #10 FREEDOM AND WHISKEY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the scratches ) could perk up if able to get back on firm ground this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 2-5-9-11-12

 

Race  3

1.Binkster

2.Funny Guy

3.T Loves a Fight

NYS Stallion Stakes on tap here...  #2 BINKSTER is a gem of consistency, having partaken in the superfecta over 14 of his last 16 calls to the post, and has done fine work at The Big A as well, going on that 10:3-1-1 local ledger. Mild choice in a compact, but competitive affair. #3 FUNNY GUY ( "What, like a clown?" ) is the clear class of this deal, has done fine work in Ozone Park, and is reunited with his favorite pilot. Can't fault those taking a favorable view. #1 T LOVES A FIGHT has proven to be a fantastic claim, as he's netted God knows how many times the $10,000 purchase price from mid '19, and is another who digs this trip & strip. Toss in a career 9:3-1-2-1 ledger when breaking from the pine, and you have the makings of another sensible selection. 

 

Race  4 

1.Starry Hope

2.English Charmer ( AE )

3.Jazzy Lady ( AE )

#9 STARRY HOPE ( the name of a horse in a classic scene of "Pope of Greenwich Village" !! ) only lost by a bit over five lengths when beginning her working life in Elmont two fortnights back, and has the wonder drug administered for the first time by Kelly. Mild choice in a wide, wide open heat. #13 ENGLISH CHARMER (AE) needs a couple to declare in order to face the starter today, but should that come to bear, would be bringing in an adjusted 63.6 BSF from the lone try over firm ground, and we like that the result was precipitously better than the initial turf engagement. #12 JAZZY LADY (AE) is another looking through the candy store window, but has a decent overall body of work and finds herself at her lowest level to date.  OFF TURF: 4-10-11(AE)-2-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:51, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'s 3 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  5

1.Stormi Cat Lady

2.Nebo

3.Tangerine Dream

#8 STORMI CAT LADY improved by about 50% from the first start to the second, and sheds five pounds with a popular bug assigned, while sliding in a couple of posts. January foal has a maturity edge over the rest signed on, and we're expecting some more improvement in this spot. #5 NEBU ( scratched off the AE list on Friday ) is a 130K Saratoga purchase who was bought for less than 1/3rd of that amount at Big Sandy first time out, and although the number came back a bit on the low side, these juvies can improve by leaps & bounds, and we like how this one is claim protected despite having been kept in jail. #6 TANGERINE DREAM isn't particularly well bred for the turf, so you can feel free to ignore the most recent if you'd like, and as this one hung up an adj. 56 in the dirt bow, we'll chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Somebody

2.Twelfth Labour 

3.Smile Bryan

#6 SOMEBODY hasn't seen the scene since mid August, but gelding has done his finest work on this oval, ( 8:2-2-0 ) and ran a career best # when last in action ( losing by only a neck ). Bond charge totes his lightest impost to date, and aforementioned shotcaller is a jazzy 10 for 17 with locally based mid level dirt equines coming in off a layoff of 51-147 days, and has a sensational $6.82 return on investment in that regards. #1 TWELFTH LABOUR will be brought over by a bossman who is boss with a nice DRF Formulator stat behind him. Over the last 260 weeks, Avila has a crisp 6:4-2-0 ledger with 2nd off the snag dirt stock returning in less than 20 days at 12-1 or undah ( $18, $10, $12 & $5 ). #5 SMILE BRYAN rounds out the tri. 

 

Race  7

1.Mr. Kringle

2.Sanctuary City

3.Kichiro

#9 MR. KRINGLE got smacked around a bit in the October 9th event, but is a length short of having a 2 for 2 record on the Inner, and Terranova ( from the smallest of surveys ) is two fer three with allowance turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 21-67 days back ( $6 & $11 ). #1 SANCTUARY CITY rallied resolutely in an identical spot 16 days back to pick up the place bread, and we like whena  trainer isn't "ascared" to make an equipment/medication change off a good performance, and Jimmy makes blinkers a part of the package today. Speaking of Ferraro, he's on a great run these days, and should be getting more stock, fer sure. #7 KICHIRO bested weaker at PID about a month back, and hasn't disgraced himself in either turf foray.  OFF TURF: 5-2-4-11-16(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Mike's Girl

2.Astoria Kitten

3.Monificent

#1 MIKE'S GIRL showed zippo in the comebacker down at Maryland, but gal was a gamely third in her lone "2nd off the bench" jammie, and rates the meeeeeekest of choices in a race that's difficult to hug. #3 ASTORIA KITTEN has lost ground in the lane in each & every start, but speed does well here this time of year, and this one can go all the way if able to set some soft splits. #2 MONIFICENT is another zippy sort who may be able to land a share if able to outbreak the above.  OFF TURF: 5-4-7(MTO)-11(MTO)-2

 

Race  9 

1.Officer Hutchy

2.Prairie Fire

3.Espresso Shot

#3 OFFICER HUTCHY has won two of three, is 4:2-2-0 in Queens, and owns an overall "declining" mark of 9:4-2-0, which we dig so much, as it shows she has a schnoz for the line. Atras ( 20% on the norm ) has won three of six with Aqueduct dirt sprinters ridden by Franco who missed the board 8-50 days ago & are 21-1 or less. #5 PRAIRIE FIRE always seems to give a good accounting of herself, and we like this one's ability to rate or send. Logical. #1 ESPRESSO SHOT has been a bit camera shy for about a year & a half, but has some class to her and may pick of a slice of rhubarb. 

 

Race  10

1.Dustinthewind

2.Tornado Crossing

3.Eighty Seven North 

#6 DUSTINTHEWIND has finished in the back half of the pack in her quartet of 2020 outings, but with maidens we go back anywhere in their PP's in an effort to find something positive ( they're maidens for a reason, ya know ), and sometimes you can get some hefty payouts when doing such. Having said that, this miss posted an adjusted 73.2 ( without Lasix ) last annum, and hungry pilot will ( at the very least ) try for all the minor spoils. Bombs away ! #7 TORNADO CROSSING is slowwwwwwwly improving and gets in light. #8 EIGHT SEVEN NORTH is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but as she's partaken in the superfecta in 12 of 18 careerwise, s'pose we can slide her in the "unders".  OFF TURF: 6-2-11-12-15(MTO) 


Aqueduct       ( Current ):       18-98      ( $295.40 ) Beatable    Favorites     1-6  ( 16.7% ) Favorites Win %        32-98    ( 33.1% ) 



Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       9-50       ( $79.20 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  N/A )        Favorites Win %:    17-50   ( 34.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2712-13830 ($23,218.10) Beatable Favorites : 358-1300( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 5239-13913 ( 37.7% ) +/-: -16.0%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2797-14398 ($24,037.00)  Beatable Favorites : 373-1368( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5402-14500 ( 37.3% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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