SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 2/15 - Happy George Washington's Birthday / President's Day


Nice day for us here yesterday as we had the following...

--Four winners of $11, $15, $8 & $3

--An Ice Cold $36 Quinella 

--An Ice Cold $87 Exacta & a $151 Exacta box

--Three Ice Cold Doubles of $108, $60 & $11, and three Rolling Doubles of $117, $16 & $9

--Two Ice Cold Pick Threes of $333 & $84 and two Rolling Pick Threes of $57 & $255

--A Rolling Pick Four for $599

--A Rolling Pick Five for $4,312

--A Triple box for $563

We maintain our flat bet profit for the meet & have a positive ROI going back to Labor Day ( 798 races ) by $6.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/15 - Happy George Washington's Birthday / President's Day


Race  1

1.Nisbet Beach

2.Suspended Campaign 

3.Rose E Holiday

#3 NISBET BEACH hasn't been in action since Pearl Harbor Day, but three year old was an honest enough fourth that day, and ( numerically ) fared a bit better in the one turn engagement prior to that. There's a solid DRF Formulator stat in play to start the day, as shotcaller has a 12:5-1-2 with locally based maiden claiming dirt dashers off breaks of 56-91 days @ 11-1 or less ( $3 x 2, $7, $16 & $5 ). #1 SUSPENDED CAMPAIGN is another who's been laid up for a bit, but has hit the board in two of three and gets the wonder drug for the first time. Hot barn drops this one to her lowest level to date. #4 ROSE E HOLIDAY begins her working life this afternoon, and although the Tomlinson figure for the trip is purdy low, we're digging the crisp morning moves on the worktab. 


Race  2

1.Elite Speed

2.Tuff Bird

3.Big Al's Gal

#7 ELITE SPEED hasn't shown much since coming southward, but we like to give a runner two shots under a particular set of circumstances before discounting their chances, and this one goes over a fast track for just the second time. Note that this one has done pretty well when starting from "outsidish" slots. Mild choice. #5 TUFF BIRD usually gives a good account of herself and gets a jockey upgrade off the most recent. #2 BIG AL'S GAL was an even 3rd in this race about three weeks ago & is logical once again. 


Race  3

1.Malibu Anthem

2.Yes Your Honor

3.Wicked Happy

#3 MALIBU ANTHEM has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts on the sand, and comes in today off a lively placing in a similar spot two fortnights ago. Sensible selection. #1 YES YOUR HONOR completes the sibling exacta based on the 59-1 placing against weaker on the 10th of January, and the winner that day repeated next time out. #4 WICKED HAPPY went six wide in a field with that many last on 1/13, but still procured the show dough at 12-1 in a career best dirt performance. Logical contendress.   NOTE: AS OF 2:21 P.M. SATURDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  4 

1.Creative Style

2.Control Group

3.Air Attack

#3 CREATIVE STYLE is an extremely consistent sort who's quite popular at the claim box ( snagged in five of his last six ), and Potts owns a 4 for 6 record with Aqueduct based, second off the claim mid level dirt stock who crashed the party < seven weeks ago, and just look at these prices -- $77, $23, $7 & $18 !! #1 CONTROL GROUP has a great overall body of work, and although horse ( and trainer ) have been slumping of late, we see that this one has a win & a placing when entered between 16K & 20K; 7:4-0-1 mark when first to load positively leaps off the page. #4 AIR ATTACK drops a peg after a square 2nd going two turns, but as this one hasn't fared too well going short, we'll keep beneath. 


Race  5

1.Summer Brew

2.Hip Number One 

3.Dramatic Twist

#2 SUMMER BREW has been freshened up a bit after immolating some baccala back in December, and filly ( who owns some back class ) is in receipt of the miracle drug for the first time. Recent breeze says all systems go as this one is reunited with Manny Man, who guided her to her lifetime best figaro. #4 HIP NUMBER ONE is the clear speed of this deal, and sheds a couple'a lbs. off a 23-1 showing on Jan. 24th. Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #1 DRAMATIC TWIST took the overland route when closing out the triple behind a next out winner first time out, and the 348 Tommy for the dx. tells us the result was likely not an aberration. 


Race  6 

1.Fleet Warrior

2.Bustin Timberlake 

3.Ninth Hour

#5 FLEET WARRIOR has hit the board in three straight, and what we like is that it's come at increasingly higher levels ( and odds ). Chestnut chap has done decent work over this oval, and there's a curiously interesting bullet gate move ten days back for this. #1 BUSTIN TIMBERLAKE has been a part of the exacta in seven of eleven, is one of two when breaking from the pine, and new bossman Baker is 3-10 with AQU based allowance male dirt stock who were 1-2-3 6-50 days back at 7-1 or undah ( 4YO & up ). The mutuels were $9 x 2 & $3, and this one should sit a nice trip. #3 NINTH HOUR gave a good accounting of himself when returning off nearly a year and a half hibernation to secure 3rd place money, and lightly raced 7 year old lost by a sliver in his sole "second off the shelf" deal on a glib surface. 


Race  7

1.Our Last Buck


3.My Boy Tate

#3 OUR LAST BUCK is on a nifty little 8:5-2-0-1 run of late, has done his best work at The Big A, and Nevin is in heaven with Ozone Park based ungraded dirt stock at 7-1 or less ( 24-50 days ), as she's a snappy 5 for 7 with that type ( $3, $4, $7 x 2 & $14 ). Legit fave. #1 TRIBECCA hasn't been in action since Turkey time, but gutsy warhorse has won two of four off a L/O, and has speed & the rail -- which has proven to be golden through the first three races as of this writing on Saturday. #4 MY BOY TATE rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A LTE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Mr. Fidget 


3.Mucho Sunshine

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #2 MR. FIDGET has displayed zilch in the last duet, but we always go back three starts to find something positive ( which can lead to nice payouts ), and this one posted an adjusted 68,9 three starts back, which would definitely work here -- if able to get back to that effort. #7 HALSTAAT has been beset by some layoff lines, so The Fish drops this one to al all time low, while naming the jock from the career best # in '19. Could surprise at a big number. #5 MUCHO SUNSHINE was extremely gamely in grabbing the sheepskin on New Year's Eve, and we see no reason to exclude in this spot. 

Aqueduct        ( Current ):    55-285     ( $632.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-11( 45.1% ) Favorites  Win %   99-285   ( 34.5% ) ( As of Monday morning )

Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )        Favorites Win %:    17-53   ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout