SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 2/20
  
  

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Breakeven day for us here yesterday, and we still have a flat bet profit for the meet, as well as a positive R.O.I. for the last 814 races ( going back 5+ months ).

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Saudi Cup, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/20

 

Race  1

1.B C Glory Days

2.Judge Bern

3.Tales of Saratoga

#1 B C GLORY DAYS was extremely game when nearly going all the way when breaking ( for a firster ) a disadvantageous slot, and although finishing third, lost by merely a length while being two clear of the nest runner. Red hot Cancel gets the nod in this spot. #2 JUDGE BERN has closed out the super in his last duet, and goes over a fast track with Lasix for the first time; eligible to improve a bit. #5 TALES OF SARATOGA hails from a barn that has yet to win a race, but has been freshened up a bit and gets the wonder drug while drawing well. 

 

Race  2

1.Rudy Rod entry

2.Tapizearance

3.Beach Front

We're digging the chances of both #2 MACHO JACK ( barn 4 for 7 with locally based, freshly claimed, mid level dirt stock who missed the board 44-50 days back -- $8 x 2, $4 & $3 ) and #2B COBBLE HILL ( R.R. 4-10 with runners of this ilk dropping 50% or more off breaks of 51 days or more -- $13, $7, $6 & $8 ). Looks like a solid place bet, as they can legitimately run 1-2. #6 TAPIZEARANCE was a lively runner up at 9-1 behind a next out winner 22 days in the rear, and 11% bossman is 2 fer 5 with 3rd off the bench AQU based dirt runners at this level who crashed the fiesta less than 44 days ago beneath 12-1 odds ( $6 x 2 ). #3 BEACH FRONT closed out the tri in both dirt starts when breaking from posts 1 & 2 ( in races where he stayed upright ) and has done well at the trip. 

 

Race  3

1.Seethisquick

2.Earned Success 

3.Release the Thunder 

#2 SEETHISQUICK has rolled three straight "sixes", and while that may make you a few fazools at the craps table, it doesn't even get you a check in these parts. That being said, this one is 3:1-1-0-1 in "second off the L/O" spots, and despite Harkie's aversion to the winner's circle, we'll take a shot at a price. #6 EARNED SUCCESS has oodles of speed, and despite the class hike, we're diggin' the 5 of 11 ledger at the distance. Grab him by the tail to get the lion's share. #4 RELEASE THE THUNDER has changed addresses after five of his last seven, and why not, as this one has a proclivity for cashing checks. Gelding has been kept in jail & returns for the same price. 

 

Race  4 

1.Siena Magic

2.Jake Rocks

3.Mister Bobby

#1 SIENA MAGIC was life and death to hold on by a sliver in this race on the 9th of January, but was set down by the stewards afterwards for being naughty. We see no reason a "repeat" ( sans DQ ) isn't feasible and will look for some magic once again. #5 JAKE ROCKS is a nibbler by rote ( 20:1-3-4 ), but is a touch better ( ITM wise ) at today's dx. ( 5:0-0-4 ), and seems like a decent "unders" candidate. #3 MISTER BOBBY has a decent 4:0-3-0 record when returning off an absence, and is another owning a nice mark at at today's distance of ground.  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-4-5.

 

Race  5

1.Lemon Drop Road

2.Good Culture

3.Exalted Charm

#7 LEMON DROP ROAD down the lane. #2 GOOD CULTURE is a $5,000 bred animal who went for 25 times that amount at Keeneland a couple'a years back, and owns a bullet gate breeze for today's initial call to the post -- and that's always something which merits inclusion for a FTS'er. #4 EXALTED CHARM was a fumblin' and a stumblin' at the onset of the Hallandale debut about four weeks back, but gets a decent gate rider for his initial New York start, and we wouldn't be shocked to see a better performance.   NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-2-1.

 

Race  6 

1.It's All Relevant

2.Tale of Silence

3.Supreme Aura

#6 IT'S ALL RELEVANT is an extremely speedy sort who has won nearly seven of his dozen outings in Queens, and is two of three in second off the layoff dirt sprints over a a glib surface. Know him early but have the Pepto handy late. #4 TALE OF SILENCE is the clear class of this grouping, but has displayed extremely little in his last three trips to the frontside, so we have some mixed signals here. Seven year old "horse" ( You protect those pistachios, buddy boy ! ) may need a race, but we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 SUPREME AURA takes the mandatory jump in class after being bought for half of today's tag 27 days back, but has fared well at this trip & over this strip, and has a fair shot if able to tack on a few Beyer points.  NOTE: AS OF 11:45, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A WET TRACK,OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-2-5. AS THERE WAS AN EARLY SCRATCH, SHOULD THE TRACK BE FAST, THEN AS BY RULE, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS REVERT TO 6-1 WITH #5 AS THE 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  7

1.More Glitter 

2.Eloquent Speaker

3.Shesasuperfreak

#3 MORE GLITTER hasn't faced the starter in a couple of Christmas', and while the Beyer speed figure from her sole try on a fast track ( a showing ) appears to be low, in all actuality, it comes out to be an adjusted 78.3 -- which would fit quite well here, IF fully cranked up. #8 ELOQUENT SPEAKER has been switched over to s hot barn since finishing third in this race back on the 24th of Jan., and we like the new dimension shown in that heat, when coming from a bit off the pace; J/T combo have fared well together. We've always been a bit partial to the #6 SHESASUPERFREAK since we tabbed her on top when she scored by nearly a dozen when debuting at The Spa 2 1/2 years ago, and zippy sort gets McCarthy in the stirrups this afternoon.  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-5-1.

 

Race  8 

1.Cara's Dreamer 

2.Brattle House

3.Make Mischief

#9 CARA'S DREAMER has shown steady improvement in each and every dirt start since beginning her career last June ( 21-36-49-54-60 ), so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Gal has hit the board in four of five on the brown stuff, and draws well while shedding four pounds off a recent 3rd place finish. #8 BRATTLE HOUSE hasn't shown her muzzle since going all the way at first asking around Turkey time, and although facing winners for the first time is no easy task, there are no world beaters here, and this one's a threat to replicate that effort in this spot. #3 MAKE MISCHIEF has faced some nice animals in her career ( Princess Noor, for example ), and is a logical inclusion in the day's feature.  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-5-7.

 

Race  9 

1.Wisecrack

2.Warfront Fighter

3.Scorpion Dynasty

These three and no more for all our wagering purposes. #4 WISECRACK is definitely a professional maiden these days, but we always go back anywhere in the P.P.'s of non winners to find something positive, and this one has a few decent efforts at this venue. #5 WARFRONT FIGHTER has the best overall body of work in the group, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #2 SCORPION DYNASTY has partaken in the superfecta in both "3rd off the respite" tries and has enough speed to land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-1-7.


Aqueduct        ( Current ):    58-301     ( $674.20 ) Beatable  Favorites    5-11( 45.1% ) Favorites  Win %   104-301   ( 34.4% ) ( As of Saturday morning )


Aqueduct Fall     ( Final ):      28-175     ( $454.00 ) Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Belmont              ( Final ):     42-267     ( $370.40 ) Beatable    Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )   Favorites Win %      90-267   ( 33.2% )  

Saratoga             ( Final ):     71-396     ( $570.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-21 ( 23.8% )   Favorites Win %     143-396 ( 36.1% )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):       10-54     ( $122.40 )  Beatable Favorites    0-1   (  0% )        Favorites Win %:    17-53   ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2750-14059 ($23,795.50) Beatable Favorites : 359-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5312-14141 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2835-14627 ($24,613.40)  Beatable Favorites : 374-1380( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5475-14728 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.6% takeout


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