SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 4/8
  
  

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Hope you all had a wonderful Easter !

Interesting Saturday for us here. Once again, we only had a couple'a chalky winners, but that's to be expected with our style, and the fact that favorites are winning at a surreal 21 for 27 clip ( 77.7777777777% ). Aside from that, we had a 51-1 shot finish 3rd, an 18-1 shot finish 2nd, a 62-1 shot ( destroyed at the start & 25 lengths back ) finish 2nd, and our 72-1 second choice in the Wood Memorial get up in time !

Oddly enough, of the six losing favorites, two of them were our "Beatable Favorites".

We ended up with a profitable day, however, as we went 2 for 4 in our Graded Stakes writeups, and now ( once again ) have a flat bet profit in that category.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): NOTE: AS OF 11:40, IN RACE 7, #9 LOVE AND THUNDER (IRE) WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 4/8

 

Race  1

1. Irish Giant

2.Dangerous Edge

3.Obsessed

#1 IRISH GIANT was a rare five year year old winning at first asking two weeks back, and although the number came back a bit lowish, this one is bred to do slightly better, and from an itty bitty survey, Rice has won with both of her locally based second time starters who won < two dozen days back ( $5 & $4 ). #6 DANGEROUS EDGE ( who should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there ) was a decently clear runner up when losing by lust a sliver versus weaker 34 days in the rear, and while a regression is always possible off a career best effort, it wasn't that far removed from his second best performance, so we're expecting another goodie. #5 OBSESSED has a nice collection of speed figures, and $330,000 auction purchase is up for sale for the first time this afternoon.  NOTE: AS OF 11:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Full of Fire

2.Flower's Fortune

3.Tremayne

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner.   #4 FULL OF FIRE: Noda owns a two for three record with maiden claiming dirt stock who crashed the board less than 50 days ago ( $5 & $7 ). #9 FLOWER'S FORTUNE: 'Miah ( 23% on the norm ) has won three of five Aqueduct based mdclm. dirt fillies who were in the money 32-50 days back ( $10 & $5 x 2 ). #6 TREMAYNE: 9% Ryerson triples that batting average with Ozone Park based runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 < 51 days in the rear @ 9-1 or beneath ( gals, 3 & up ), with healthy payouts of $12, $9, $8 & $4.  NOTE: AS OF 11:28, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 2 & 3 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  3

1.O'Trouble

2.Zaevion

3.Morning Breez

#6 O'TROUBLE is a bit of a "consistent nibbler" ( 8:1-3-3 ), but the lone win came right here, gets a hot Jose, and Dutrow is 5:2-2-0 with Aqu. based allowance dirt stock who were ITM 39 days ago or less ( $19 & $3 ). Note that the lone start when last to load resulted in a gamely nose defeat. #2 ZAEVION has a 3:1-0-1-1 ledger in "true" 2nd off the L/O engagements, owns a similar mark right here, and positively adores this trip, as he's 6-14, compared to being 2-17 @ other distances of ground. #3 MORNING BREEZ is a nibblah by rote ( 21:1-7-6 at this dx. ), but makes sense in this spot. 

 

Race  4 

1.Lilly Simone

2.Dovima

3.Mun Luv

#9 LILLY SIMONE has only beaten home five competitors in three starts to date, but totes the lightest weight of her career today, and is in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. We're not too worried about the long respite, as Honk if you like Donk with maiden special weight turf dashers in the 67-187 day bracket ( < 30-1 ) as he's won with both of his starters there ( $20 & $8 ). #4 DOVIMA is a bit of a money burner ( last four defeats at an average of $1.64-1 ), but has a nice body of work, and Brown is 2 fer 3 with turfers going short right here at this level who hit the board 57-187 days back ( $4 & $8 ). #2 MUN LUV has some decent zip and can land a share in going over the gramma with juice for the first time.  OFF TURF: 9-3-8-4-11

 

Race  5

1.Inside Info

2.No Lime

3.Dr. Devera's Way

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #1 INSIDE INFO has been up the track over his last duet, but we sometimes like to ignore pre & post layoff running lines, as perhaps something went wrong before the break, and maybe the runner wasn't fully cranked up for the comebacker. That being said, this one was 4:2-0-2 in his quartet of dirt outings prior to that, and that includes a win in his sole start at this dist. -- which also came in his only "second off the L/O" attempt. Decent longshot play -- IF fully sound. #4 NO LIME completed the exacta in his only try at this level, and has done okay at The Big A. #6 DR. DEVERA'S WAY as good as any for the show biscotti. 

 

Race  6 

1.Montauk Traffic

2.Big Engine

3.Foolish Ghost

#3 MONTAUK TRAFFIC went from zero to hero when besting conditional platers at AQU 48 days back, and if you prorate that wet track figure to this one's best over a fast surface, then you can say he most definitely fits w/these. When it comes to her optional dirt equines who scored 46-50 days past, Rice is a nice 5:2-1-1, and that's all enough reason to spot this one up top. #4 BIG ENGINE ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) is two of two in "third off a hiatus" jammies, and has done some nice things at this trio & over this strip. #2 FOOLISH GHOST is the clear speed of this affair, and is an absolute must include, coming in off of a monster effort at the A1X level.  NOTE: AS OF 1:42, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-1-2.

 

Race  7

1.Stunning Munnings

2.Signify

3.Magical Soul

#10 STUNNING MUNNINGS was as flat as a pancake in the most recent and ended up in a new barn afterwards. Barn doesn't win a whole heck of a lot ( 6% ), but they do fare exceptionally well with first off the claim sprinters on this circuit at 30-1 or less ( < 24 days ). They happen to be 7 for 34 with that type ( 21% ), and just look at the prices -- $14, $7 x 2, $9, $15, $43 & $34. Recognize that this one's last attempt wasn't half bad ( 71.2 ), and as it was substantially better than the grass bow, perhaps the ceiling can be a little bit higher?  Oh yeah -- filly brings in a 5:1-2-2 mark when breaking from the outermost two slots. #5 SIGNIFY went all the way in her lone try off an absence, and accomplished such on the synthetic, which we feel translates to the sod nicely. #2 MAGICAL SOUL has a nice Palm Meadows bullet on display for today's comebacker, and the pre layoff jock comes back -- which is nice ( Gunga Galunga ).  OFF TURF: 5-1A(MTO)-8(MTO)-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, #9 WILL BE OUR BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  8 

1.Wicked Happy

2.My Girl Blue

3.Laugh It Off 

#5 WICKED HAPPY has an excellent "sloppy dirt to firm turf" BSF here, and it appears to be graduation day. #2 MY GIRL BLUE ran an adjusted 64.6 in her one and only turf route, and after being put in storage for half the length of the calendar, can be all yours for 40 large  There may be some value here, despite the rider having one winner on this circuit in his last 86 mounts or so. #4 LAUGH IT OFF has been steady if unspectacular so far, but fourth different pilot from as many trips to the track is his best to date. Can grab a piece.  OFF TURF: 11-12-5-8-2 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 5-27         ( $20.00 )   Beatable  Favorites      0-2   ( 0% )    Favorites   Win  %:   21-27    ( 77.8% )( As of Thursday Morning ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-11        ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-11     ( 36.1% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


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