SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 4/9 - Keeneland - Maker's Mark Mile
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 4/9 - Maker's Mark Mile

 

Race 9 

1.Get Smokin

2.Sacred Life ( Fr )

3.Ride a Comet

#1 GET SMOKIN appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and Junior will have to make sure this one breaks alertly from today's inside slot, lest he get swallowed up early on. Bush trainee has fared well when breaking from the innermost two slots ( 3:2-1-0 in routes ) and also won in his only pairing with today's pilot. Gelding has been working lights ou at Palm Meadows, and grab him by the tail to get the glory. #4 SACRED LIFE (FR) is 5:2-1-0-1 off a respite, 2:1-1-0 when being ridden by Javy ( with none of those races overlapping, and the win coming in his sole attempt on this course ), & owns a snappy 4:3-1-0 right here. Six yr. old "horse" ( You hang on to all things sacred, buddy ! ) should be rolling late. #6 RIDE A COMET is a win machine ( 8 fer 14 ) who also excels at this dx., as the 3 fer 4 mark belies. OFF TURF: 7-1-5-3-2 


Aqueduct          ( Current ):  8-35       ( $32.10 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-3   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   24-35    ( 68.6% )( As of Friday Morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-11        ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-11     ( 36.1% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017