SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 4/10 - Keeneland - Jenny Wiley
  
  

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Decent day for us here yesterday, as we broke even on the win end, had a $42 cold Exacta & $98 Exacta Box, a $71 cold Triple & $1,085 Triple Box, and another successful Beatable Favorite.

Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct AND the Arkansas Derby, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): #1 -Micheline


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Graded Stakes - 4/10 - Keeneland - Jenny Wiley

 

Race 10 

1.Etoile ( Fr )

2.Maxim Rate

3.Tamahere ( Fr )

#4 ETOILE (FR) hasn't been in action since an all out win nord de lignes back in October, but mare was a sharp runner up when placing directly behind a next out winner the last time she returned off a hiatus, and aside from a flop over a rock hard Arcadian course, this one has placed in both other outings going over firm ground. From a tiny sampling, Brown is 2 for 5 with locally based graded turf stayers off breaks of 68-348 days ( ridden by Javy ). Slight edge in a wide open feature. #5 MAXIM RATE has a nice "declining" record ( 14:5-3-0 ) and closed out the exacta in her sole start off a break ( on firm ground ). #2 TAMAHERE (FR) ( uncoupled entrymate with our top choice ) has a 2:1-1-0 mark when coming back off a L/O ( over firm going ), and may come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 6-5-1-2-4   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 MICHELINE fills the bill, as Stidham is 0-11 in all relevant categories. 

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  10-43       ( $47.70 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-4   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   26-43    ( 60.5% )( As of Saturday Morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-12         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017