SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 4/10 - Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby
  
  

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Decent day for us here yesterday, as we broke even on the win end, had a $42 cold Exacta & $98 Exacta Box, a $71 cold Triple & $1,085 Triple Box, and another successful Beatable Favorite.

Just a remonder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Aqueduct AND the Jenny Wile from Keeneland, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 4/10 - Oaklawn Park - Arkansas Derby

 

 Race 10

1.Concert Tour

2.Get Her Number

3.Caddo River

These three and no more in a truncated rendition of the Arkansas Derby...  #5 CONCERT TOUR went coast to coast like butter and toast when going two turns for the first time right here two fortnights ago, and the pedigree ( 376 Tomlinson ) tells us the result was likely not an aberration. We like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit, and over the last 1,826 days, Lidocaine Bob is a sensational 58:35-11-2 ( 60% ) with graded dirt stayers who won 6-50 days ago & are 2-1 or less today. Expect this one to be more in the 3 to 5 range come post time, and be one of the top two favorites in Louisville. #4 GET HER NUMBER flopped in the comebacker, but found the line first the only other time he went long on the sand, and is eligible to rebound. #2 CADDO RIVER had improved over his quartet of starts to begin his career before being rank in the Rebel and showing little late in the game. Using, but with a touch of trepidation. 

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ):  10-43       ( $47.70 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-4   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   26-43    ( 60.5% )( As of Saturday Morning )

 

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 2-12         ( $22.40 )   Beatable Favorites     0-0   ( N/A )    Favorites  Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


Aqueduct           ( Final ):   86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2836-14523 ($24,784.90) Beatable Favorites : 364-1327( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5474-14605 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -14.7%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2921-15091 ($25,602.80)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1395( 27.2% )Favorite's Win %: 5637-15192 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017