SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 4/29


One was the loneliest number for us here on Sunday, but we still have a flat bet profit for the meet, as favorites are now on a 79 for 148 ( 53.4% ) run dating back to closing weekend of the winter meet.  

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 True Believe

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 4/29


Race  1



3.Lend America

#8 JOHNNYPUMP put forth an honest showing at this level earlier on in the month, but apparently, it wasn't honest enough, as shortly thereafter, he received the unkindest cut of all. Obvious factor once again, and recognize that the career best turf effort came over firm ground. #7 CENTURION returned off of more than the length of a calendar to lose by less than two at The Big A on 4/9, and as this one posted a decent adjusted numero in the other lone turf dash, we'll give him another shot in today's 2nd off the L/O try. #6 LEND AMERICA cuts back for today's secondary turf engagement and gets a good longshot jock in the irons.  OFF TURF: 1-4-2-5-3  NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO AN ERROR, #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.



Race  2

1.Beach Front

2.Imperio D

3.Joycee Haz Pizzaz

#2 BEACH FRONT was a gamely runner up in this race three weeks in the rear, and gets a jockey upgrade as Rice ( who is STILL awaiting the results of the NYS Gaming investigation ) keeps it in the family with Jose taking the call. #1 IMPERIO D tossed in a real clunker when facing slightly tougher last time out, but hey -- they can't all be winners, kid. This one had partaken in the superfecta in 14 straight prior to that, and obviously deserves another chance. #6 JOYCEE HAZ PIZZAZ was denied the hat trick in this race about six weeks ago, but has been given some time to regroup after that flop, and there's a bit of a trainer improvemnt in this spot.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 TRUE BELIEVE fills the bill, as barn is 0-12 in all pertinenet categories. 


Race  3

1.Information Mosaic

2.Little Nutter


#3 INFORMATION MOSAIC has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but showed a little improvement down in Oldsmar back in January, and that race has proven to be a key heat, as seven returnees have amassed a cumulative 3 for 7 mark in their followup engagements, and it's encouraging to see Irad grab the reins. #2 LITTLE NUTTER gave a decent account of herself when showing nice speed and failing by< 6 lengths at triple digit odds, and one of these days she's gonna pop at a big price. #5 L'INDISCREET has a nice overall body of work and is available for purchase for the first time, and Tagg has done significantly better work when calling on J. Ortiz.  OFF TURF: 10-3-7-2-1


Race  4 

1.Blunt Force

2.City Temper

3.Miss Mi Mi

There may be some value with the #4 BLUNT FORCE here, as although this one finished up the track last time out, it came over a wet track, and this one is precipitously better over a glib surface. Manny Man is as cold as ice these days, but we'll give this one a slight nod with the dropdown. #7 CITY TEMPER was a convincing victress when besting slightly weaker in Ozone Park at the end of March, and sheds five pounds off that score, which is something we always dig. #1 MISS MI MI gets a touch of class relief today. 



Race  5


2.Technical Analysis ( Ire ) 


#6 SIRANEUSE was a visually impressive winner first time out at Turfway Park down in Kentucky 57 days back in a "Much the best" performance, and the fact that it came on synthetic, tells us that today's switch to the green stuff shouldn't be too much of a problem. Over the last 60 months, Jonathan Thomas ( or is it Thomas Johnathan ? ) is a poyfect three for three with locally based optional turf stock off breaks of 57-67 days, with decent mutuels of $14, $11 & $6. #3 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS showed appreciable improvement from her first start to the second, and the otherworldly turf Tomlinson says there's oodles of room for improvement here. #5 CALDEE has a touch of back class and rates a shot if all systems are go for the horse and the returning pilot.  OFF TURF:2-8-1-9(MTO)-7




Race  6 


2.Mission Command

3.War Stroll

#3 UNMOORED has a decent 4;1-2-1 mark off the pine, owns a bunch of zip and has won his last three starts when entered for this price or lower. Always good to see the pre-layoff jock return, and you're gonna have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #2 MISSION COMMAND has done his best work right here ( two fer five ), and grey seven year old "horse" ( You keep "command" of those peanuts, buddy ! ) has won off the bench before. #5 WAR STROLL rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-10-1-9-6  NOTE: AS OF 10:48, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 1 & 8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTFULLY.


Race  7

1.Indian Counselor

2.Vintage Hollywood 

3.Dust Devil

#1 INDIAN COUNSELOR aims for the hat trick today, and it's quite feasible, as contrary to many, we don't consider this that much ( if at all ) of a hike in class. Beyers are a bit light, but gameness goes a long way with us, and we'll ride him until he bucks us off. #3 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD got up in time to best mid level platers a baker's dozen days back, and you can feel free to upgrade that figaro by a few points if you'd like, as this one moves up on a fast track. #4 DUST DEVIL ( those things don't work ) comes in today off a snazzy score against starter competition on April Fool's Day, and was a lively runner up in his sole 2X to 1X jammie; can't dismiss. 


Race  8 


2.Mr. Alec

3.Grumps Little Tots 

#2 DYNADRIVE got his Polaroid taken the only time he made left hand turns on the inner, and poses a big threat if there's some pace in front of him. Mild choice. #3 MR. ALEC has been absent from the super but once in his working life, and we like this one's ability to send of rate just a bit. #7 GRUMPS LITTLE TOTS went coast to coast like butter and toast in his only "3rd off the L/O" go round, and has a win and a showing in as many starts with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. Mixed signals off the recent disappointment in the Excelsior.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-9


Race  9 

1.Self Awareness

2.Lyrical Poet

3.Our Destiny

We have two nice DRF Formulator statistics to close out the day, so without further ado...  #10 SELF AWARENESS hasn't shown much in his last two trips to the track ( both off respites ), but we're assuaged by the fact that Trombetta has won with 4 of 10 first time turfers in 2md off the L/O scenarios, w/payouts of $8 x 2, $7 & $9; Trevor has dome extremely well for this barn. #8 LYRICAL POET went all the wat right outta the box at TP, and with Kitten's Joy in the bloodlines, the switch from poly to the blades should go quite well. Ward owns a 3 for 4 mark with maiden claiming turf sprinters in the 47-67 day zip code ( $2, $4 & $6 ), and for some reason this one was gelded after the maiden breaker. #4 OUR DESTINY ran out of steam very late in the game last time out, but finishing third at 20-1 is no disgrace, so we'll chunk in.  2-4-9-1-8



Belmont            ( Current ):  11-35        ( $95.70 )   Beatable Favorites      2-2  ( 100% ) Favorites   Win %:     17-35     ( 48.6% )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-16         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     5-16      ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout