SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/6
  
  

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So so day for us here on Sunday with three chalky winners, but we also had two cold doubles of $7 & $12, and a $755 triple box. With three more faves coming in, they are now clicking at a 95 for 187 rate ( 50.8% ) since closing weekend of the Aqueduct winter meet. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/6

 

Race  1

1.Bustinmygroove

2.Dramatic Twist

3.Captivating Gal

#5 BUSTINMYGROOVE ( a Bustin Stones descendant, out of some game things on the topside ) was a decently clear runner up versus slightly weaker right here on the 23rd of March, and goes from an apprentice to a capable journeyman this afternoon. The speed is obviously there, and this one may be overlooked in the odds department because of some bigger names assigned. #1 DRAMATIC TWIST got destroyed in her first try against winners, but six returnees from that affair came back to amass a cumulative 6:3-1-0-1 ledger , but from just FOUR different races, and gal totes the lightest of her career. #4 CAPTIVATING GAL got the job done first time out down in Wilmington, and although the number came back a bit lowish, the 389 Tommy tells us there's mush room for improvement, and Jose is enticed to ride.   NOTE: AS OF 11:28, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  2

1.Bella Sofia

2.Ms. Gucci Girl

3.Steal My Sunshine

#5 BELLA SOFIA begins her working life today, and is showing a decently hidden gate breeze for today's first trip to the track, The 298 Tomlinson figure for today's distance isn't great, but neither are her competitors in this spot. Nothing of note shaking out of the family tree, but mom did well dashing on the dirt ( 15:4-3-2 / 166K+ ), and sire was 3 for 7 lifetime. Mild choice. #4 MS. GUCCI GIRL showed zilch in the bow, but 377 Tommy says to give this one another shot at a big price in a suspect field. #1 STEAL MY SUNSHINE ( reminds us of one of our favorite "Feel good" songs -- "Steal My Sunshine", by Len. We've enclosed the video for you right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1fzJ_AYajA ) hasn't been seen since 'Toga time, but returns with the wonder drug, and pre-layoff pilot returns, which is a plus.

 

Race  3

1.Bingo John

2.No Lime

3.Our Man Mike

Any one of this sextet with a shot here...   #1 BINGO JOHN ( "That's a bingo!" ) has hit the board in all three starts to date, ( while improving in the speed figure department along the way ) and that includes a showing in his first try against winners ( something never easy to do ). Gets the rail and a fast track for the first time, and Manny Man on fire of late. #3 NO LIME went coast to coast like butter and toast at The Big A last time out, and while some would consider this a hike in class, we feel it's a lateral transfer, and will put this grey chap in the mix once again. #2 OUR MAN MIKE has essentially shown improvement with each passing start, and Oaks/Derby winner Velazquez takes over for Jose, who rides for the family here. 

 

 

Race  4 

1.After the Wire

2.Mia Calia

3.Miss Alex

#1 AFTER THE WIRE hasn't shown much in either start to date, but has been working fantastically for today's comebacker, finds herself at her lowest level to date, and was last seen in a race where five returnees came back to amass a cumulative 5:2-0-2 record. We expect Carmouche to be sending this one early on. #5 MIA CALIA has been a part of the superfecta in her last quintet, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot. #8 MISS ALEX did some decent work down in Oldsmar, and gets a trainer/jockey upgrade for the NY bow. Nicely spotted & draws well. 

 

Race  5

1.My First Grammy

2.Moonlight Now

3.Deputy Flag

#2 MY FIRST GRAMMY takes the mandatory hoke in class after being purchased for a quarter on April 17th, and you can feel free to upgrade the last triad by about 12.2%, as this one has historically been better over a glib surface. Lone spin on this oval yielded a well beaten runner up finish in between two next out victors, and chestnut ridgling goes from a bug to a capable veteran. #1 MOONLIGHT NOW returned off of a full calendar hibernation to flash some early hoof before fading vs. allowance foes, but is displaying a bullet since, and picks up a sizzling Manny Man for today's first start in the claiming ranks. #5 DEPUTY FLAG has been beset by some L/O lines of late, but we like how this one is protected against the claim here, & it's encouraging to see Saez take the mount.  NOTE: AS OF 12:23 P.M. WEDNESDAY, DUE TO A RARE EARLY SCRATCH, #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

 

Race  6 

1.Proven Innocent

2.Tiz Tact Toe

3.Gold Bear

#10 PROVEN INNOCENT has been freshened up since the Hallandale flop 2 1/2 months ago, and totes his lightest impost to date while being the recipient of the unkindest cut of all since last seen. Perhaps Shug has seen something in the mornings of late, because he puts this one back in the special weight ranks despite the recent disappointment. #1 TIZ TACT TOE has improved with each passing turf outing, so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards; fella slides in eight slots while shedding 32 oz. and could be coming late. #5 GOLD BEAR is slightly better bred for the green than the brown, and may show some improvement with today's surface switch.  OFF TURF: 11-5-9-3-2

 

Race  7

1.Movie Score

2.Dublinornothin

3.Ifihadachance

#2 MOVIE SCORE was a mite flat with no palpable excuse 20 days ago, but they all can't be winners kid, and this one had three sharp exacta finishes just prior to the last. Mare owns a nice 5:1-0-3 ledger at Big Sandy, and jock piloted this one to a gamely neck loss at 64-1 ten months back right here. Big shot to rebound at a square number. #3 DUBLINORNOTHIN has won two of her last four over a fast track, and found the line first in her only try at this tricky distance. Game mare often tries hard should be left in the mix. #7 IFIHADACHANCE has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the first time, and Donk charge is a poyfect three fer three when breaking from the outermost two posts on a fast track; solid "chance" with Jose taking the call. 

 

 

Race  8 

1.Purrageous Dyna

2.The Important One

3.Dancingwithdaffodls

#7 PURRAGEOOUS DYNA hasn't been in action since mid December, but 7YO put forth a lively showing the last time he raced here off of a hiatus ( in a near identical spot beneath today's pilot ) and has done well going today's distance of ground. Meeeeeekest of choices in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 THE IMPORTANT ONE is another who's been MIA for quite some time, but owns a win and a third place finish in both trips off a respite, and also closed out the tri in her lone partnership with Jose. #2 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS is a nibbler by rote ( 38:3-8-10 ), but got her photograph taken in her sole "third off the L/O" turf jammie, and has done some decent work on the Widener.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:25 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  9 

1.Magical Romance

2.Hey It's Tati

3.Day's Humor

#6 MAGICAL ROMANCE hasn't been loaded into the gate in about five months, but gal completed the triple at 16-1 in one of her two sod tries off a layoff, closed out the super at 55-1 in her lone pairing with today's jock, and is 5:1-0-1-1 on a firm inner turf course. Last two calls to the post when put up for sale resulted in a win & a showing ( at 68-1 ), and would be aided by any pace meltdown up front. #3 HEY IT'S TATI is wheeled right back after changing addresses on Friday, but loses the eye cups in this spot, and lost by just a couple the last time she went over the blades. #5 DAY'S HUMOR by no means disgraced herself in her first tangle with winners, and is honestly bred for today's initial turf attempt.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8(MTO)-9-7

 

 

Belmont            ( Current ):  14-73       ( $109.70 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     32-73     ( 43.8% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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