SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Park Selections & Analysis - 5/7
  
  

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Small profit on a card we didn't really like yesterday, but we'll take it. 

With two favorites coming in yesterday, they are now on a 97 for 196 run ( 49.5% ) since the closing weekend of the winter meet.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont Park - 5/7

 

Race  1

1.Kreesie

2.Wasp

3.Giacosa

We're really not diggin' today's opener, so tread lightly.  #5 KREESIE hasn't been in action since the fall, but the ol' grey mare has a tidy 3:1-0-1 mark off a break in the action, and is a snappy 7:3-0-1 on the Joseph Widener Turf Course ( for some history on the man, please go to this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_E._Widener -- oh yeah, his brother George perished on the Titanic. Recognize the fact that this one is two for two beneath Irad -- and just 2-23 otherwise. #7 WASP has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has partaken in the exacta in 4 of 5, and A.P.'s get have been doing okay on the gramma. #1 GIACOSA draws snugly and could be coming late beneath Louie.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-8

 

Race  2

1.Absolute Courage

2.Risk Profile

3.Prime Time Player

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get to 'em...   #5 ABSOLUTE COURAGE: January foal went for 3 1/2 times the $225,000 stud fee at auction, and despite immolating some baccala in the bow, we're okay with today's scenario. Over the last 60 months. Shug is a sweet 7:4-1-2 with 2nd time starters right here at this level off breaks of less than 50 days ( ridden by Jose ), w/returns of $8, $13 & $7 x 2. #1 RISK PROFILE has been a part of the super in all his starts but one, and Weaver got the job done the only time he claimed a dirt horse who it the board < two dozen days back. Not hopeless. #2 PRIME TIME PLAYER: 14% Moquett is 4 of 16 with maiden special weight sand stock off L/O's of 51-61 days ( 21-1 or undah ), with returns of $11, $3, $15 & $16. 

 

Race  3

1.Breadman

2.Austrian

3.Somethingtotellyou

#6 BREADMAN has a touch of class ( "Call me when you have no class." ) and gets Lasix for today's 2nd off the break drop into allowance company. We've landed on Terranova a lot with our delving into the trainer stats, and today is no different, as he's won with half of his six turfers at this level who missed the bread less than 68 days back ( $6, $11 & $38 ). #2 AUSTRIAN ( who should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there is a very consistent sort who's in some good form these days, and after running into a boatload of trouble last out, is reunited with the pilot from his last win. #5 SOMETHINGTOTELLYOU returned off a 14 month hibernation to best more than half the field at 27-1 in his first turf attempt, and although he may have outran his breeding that day, we feel comfortable including beneath.  OFF TURF: 6-3-2-5-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Chaysenbryn 

2.Maryanorginger

3.Mama Kin

#3 CHAYSENBRYN is back in with a tag today, and that's somewhat pertinent, as this one is on a 3:2-0-1 run when made available for purchase, and that stands out against a 6:0-0-2 mark when protected during that stretch. Timid choice.  #6 MARYANORGINGER owns a one for three mark in 3rd off the layoff scenarios, and got her photo taken in her only spin on Big Sandy -- and in a stakes, no less; first time in the claiming ranks today. #5 MAMA KIN is confidently doubled up by Carlito after the visually impressive performance a bit over a month ago, and while it never hurts in getting the meet's leading rider -- why give Cardenas the boot ?   NOTE: AS OF 10:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Little Ms Scarlet 

2.Orma

3.Here Comes Meg

Third of six turf races carded this afternoon, and we have NO first draft eliminations. Ugh.  #3 LITTLE MS SCARLETT didn't show a whole heck of a lot at first asking, but the blinkers go on today, and if that results in some earlier hoof, then maybe this gal can turn things around a bit vs. a weak allotment. #6 ORMA tried to employ a change of tactics when returning from a half'a calendar respite, but faded at the top of the lane in an identical spot. Four year old has a maturity edge over most of this grouping, and could move forward with the comebacker under her girthstrap. #12 HERE COMES MEG has a couple of decent running lines, and may spice things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3

 

Race  6 

1.Canyon of Heros

2.Warfront Fighter

3.Talespin

#8 CANYON OF HEROS ( which is where all the famous ticker tape parades in New York were held ) beat just two home first time out -- a horse & the chase ambulance -- but is lousily bred for the blades, and given the blinker addition & drop, is eligible to improve right off the bat. When it comes to his second time starters going from green to brown off breaks of two fortnights or less. Papa Englehart has a nice 6:2-2-0 mark with mutuels of $7 & $10. "Soon to be departing for California" Trevor having a nifty meet, and has done well for this clan. #7 WARFRONT FIGHTER has been setting money ablaze over his most recent triad, and colt is reunited with Irad -- which may help him get over the hump. #4 TALESPIN ( second half of the uncoupled entry with the above ) is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but has closed out the triple in three of six in Elmont ( at 3-1, 6-1 & 77-1 ), and is as good as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7 

1.Seahorse d'Oro

2.Ocean Air

3.My Lips Are Sealed

#8 SEAHORSE D'ORO is quite light from a speed figured perspective, but tries the turf for the first time today, and the maternal granddam was 11:3-2-2 going over the synthetic, which we feel translates pretty well to the green stuff. and the paternal granddam was a game runner up in her lone start on the poly ( a Grade 2 ). Slight edge in a heat with many question marks. Oh yeah, from a tiny sampling, barn is 2 for 4  with Belmont based allowance turf routers off breaks of six weeks or lower ( 40-1 or less ), with returns of $43 & $27. #7 OCEAN AIR clearly found the drop to her liking when getting up in time to procure the sheepskin down in Hallandale Beach, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on, so we'll chunk in. #4 MY LIPS ARE SEALED appears to be the clear speed of this deal, but is a fragile sort, so we'll leave beneath.  OFF TURF: 11-1-6-5-4

 

Race  8

1.Whatdoesasharksay

2.She Throws Heat

3.Caen Na Coielle

WHATDOESASHARKSAY ? Well if he's 'Misterjaw' from the cartoon wearing the top hat, he says "Gotcha !!  For those who don't remember, we've tossed in a 6 minute clip right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqDvnENu-oI !  Anyhoo, in regards to the #7, mare is a steady if unspectacular sort whose best work has come on the Inner ( 3:1-0-1-1 ), and Toner prints money with turfers in the 61-67 day bracket at 23-1 or below, as he's 3 of 8 w/ that type, & healthy mutuels of $30, $6 & $62. #3 SHE THROWS HEAT won her only start off the pine, and it happened to come on this course. In typical McGaughey fashion, this one has improved over time and is completely logical in this spot. #5 CAEN NA COILLE ( loosely translated to "Battlefield of the forest" ) gave a decent account of herself in the U.S. bow, and is one fer three in second off the layoff engagements.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2-4-5-3

 

Race  9

1.Bertinga

2.Esotica

3.Quantitativbreezin

#9 BERTINGA showed some brief early hoof when starting things out back in December, but gave up the ghost at the halfway point, finishing in the back of the pack. Filly undergoes some changes today ( drops, cuts back, switches to Saez and is in receipt of the wonder drug ), and we wouldn't be shocked to see some improvement. From a miniscule survey, Bond has won with boith of his 2nd time starters in turf sprints ( $23 & $9 ). #10 ESOTICA exits a race where two of four returnees have won their followup starts ( from three different affairs ), with an average Beyer improvement of 5.7 points per runner; fair turf pedigree for today's initial spin over the stuff. #3 QUANTITATIVBREEZIN has been away for a while, but returns at the level where she placed first time out, and poses a threat if able to get back to that effort.  OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-13(MTO)-1-9-3

  

Belmont            ( Current ):  15-82       ( $128.70 )  Beatable Favorites      4-6 ( 66.7% ) Favorites   Win %:     34-82     ( 41.5% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes ( Current ): 3-22         ( $31.20 )   Beatable Favorites     0-1   ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %:     9-22      ( 40.9% ) 


Aqueduct Spring  ( Final ):  16-95     ( $118.70 )    Beatable  Favorites     0-6   ( 0% )     Favorites   Win  %:   51-95     ( 53.7% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):  86-464  ( $989.40 )    Beatable  Favorites    5-15( 33.3% ) Favorites  Win %:   162-464 ( 34.9% ) 

Aqueduct Fall      ( Final ):  28-175   ( $454.00 )    Beatable   Favorites     1-9  ( 11.1% ) Favorites Win %      56-175   ( 32.0% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  10-54     ( $122.40 )    Beatable Favorites       0-1   (  0% )    Favorites Win %:     17-53     ( 32.1% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):2852-14618 ($24,903.60) Beatable Favorites : 364-1333( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 5525-14700 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2937-15186 ($25,721.50)  Beatable Favorites : 379-1401( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 5688-15287 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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